NG - Retail Trader Positioning at Historic Extreme

Hello traders ??, today we focus on the Natural Gas, and retail trader sentiment

                                      RETAIL TRADER POSITIONING        

TOP PANEL: Natural Gas

BOTTOM PANEL: Small Speculator Net Positions (Futures + Options)

VIEW CHART FULL SIZE: https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZTkMthRB/

SECTION 1: Small Specs

The bottom panel of the chart depicts the net positions (futures & options) of small speculators, as depicted by CoT data.

History shows that whenever retail traders are at a bearish extreme this usually coincides with market bottoms.

However the current level of bearish sentiment (-1.72K) is at a historical extreme, which is roughly the same at 2001 - which spawned a massive rally..

What is different this time... is that we are at this level AFTER a rally..

SECTION 2: Commercial Trader Net Positioning

TOP PANEL: Natural Gas

BOTTOM PANEL: Commercial Trader Net Positions (Futures + Options)

The CoT System has "fired off" 3 times in the past 7 months,

and each time the market has responded with a rally.

This is typical behaviour of a a Bull market - "buy signals" will work,

"sell signals" will not (or work for a little while)

Currently the System has not provided a bearish bias to the market

                                        SPECULATIVE MEGA CAP TECH        

"Speculative 'mega cap tech' call buying has decreased significantly: down 75% from peak."

Source: Goldman Sachs

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