NFP shocks markets, crude oil volatility spikes, and gold eyes new highs: Here’s what’s moving markets this week ????
Trade Nation
?? Power up your trading ?? International award winners 2024 *73.6% of retail CFD accounts lose money
??Power up your trading with our insights; a deep-dive into the most popular markets, backed by some of the lowest cost, fixed-spreads in the industry ?? Check out our trading platform, TN Trader, here
*Figures correct as of 7 October, 2024
Friday’s update on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for September caught the market by surprise.?
After two consecutive months of underwhelming data that sent risk assets tumbling, this time, the numbers flipped the script. NFP surged to 254,000, smashing expectations of 150,000.?
August’s figures were revised upwards (though July’s got a downward tweak), and the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.1%, beating the 4.2% forecast.
The market loved it - stocks soared, the US dollar rallied, and precious metals like gold and silver took a hit.?
The CME’s FedWatch Tool showed a shift too, with expectations for rate cuts before year-end dropping from 75 to 50 basis points.?
This robust data set helped ease some of the bearish sentiment fueled by escalating Middle East tensions last week. However, with third-quarter earnings season kicking off on Friday, there’s still plenty to keep an eye on.
Looking Ahead: Crude Oil ???
Crude oil entered the weekend with a firm footing but pulled back from its highs as traders continued to weigh the escalating tensions between Israel and Lebanon.?
Add to that Iran’s missile attack on Israel and the US discussing potential strikes on Iranian oil facilities, and you’ve got a recipe for volatility.
WTI crude surged 12% from its Tuesday lows by Friday, but questions linger: has the market fully priced in the potential for supply disruptions??
Many analysts think not.?
Traders are bracing for either a warning shot or a full-scale strike on Iran’s oil hubs, and with OPEC+ on standby to adjust production, the landscape could change dramatically.
Gold’s consolidation: Ready for a breakout? ??
Gold recently hit an all-time high of $2,685, inching closer to the $2,700 mark before taking a breather.?
The precious metal has since moved sideways in what looks like a brief consolidation. For gold bulls, this is good news - there’s been no significant sell-off, a pattern we’ve seen since April.
Amid Middle East tensions and increasing retail interest, gold looks solid, but sceptics warn that markets often correct when retail buyers get in near the top. Risk management is key as we head into potentially choppier waters.
Economic calendar ???
This week brings a mixed bag of data releases, starting with another bank holiday in China on Monday.?
Key reports include Japan’s Leading Indicators, Eurozone Retail Sales, and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday. Friday is packed with UK GDP, Construction Output, and US inflation data.?
Earnings season also ramps up, with big names like JP Morgan, PepsiCo, and Delta Air Lines reporting.
This week’s key earnings ??
??Monday
??Tuesday
??Wednesday
??Thursday
??Friday
Buckle up for another action-packed week in the markets! ????
*All views and opinions are analysis not advice. You should seek independent financial advice where required.
*CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.