NFL Week 6 Picks
It is no secret, the NFL is King. The NFL Season is, without a doubt, the most exciting portion of the sports' calendar every year. There is not another sport that captivates the hearts & minds of fans (and now gamblers) like football. With that said, I will be making picks all season long and posting them weekly.
Record (Season-to-Date): 20-13-1 (+ 5.3U)
Record (Last Week): 5-1 (+ 2.4U)
Final Record (This Week): 6-1 (+ 6.7U)
*I'd like to emphasize this is for fun, and by no means is this information financial advice*
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Washington Commanders (pk) @ Chicago Bears (3U) ???
Let me start out by saying, the Bears are definitively the worst team in football from a talent standpoint. I don't think it's necessarily close either. The fact that they are 2-3 is a MIRACLE. For perspective, they are ranked 28th in Team DVOA (#29 Offensive, #18 Defensive). The defensive numbers are even a little inflated because they played the 49ers in a Week 1 monsoon showdown. There really is nothing to get excited about with this team. Their head coach has a defensive background, and their offense struggles immensely because of it. There is no direction for this offense, the coaching staff has no idea to properly use Justin Fields. He has as many COMPLETIONS this season as Cooper Kupp has RECEPTIONS. Re-read that sentence, and really try and process that information. One might ask, they must have a really solid run-game right? Right? Nope, they're ranked 20th in Rushing Offense DVOA.
The Commanders have equally been a disaster, they're 1-4 and they're actually ranked 30th in Team DVOA (#30 Offensive, #19 Defensive), which ironically, is worse than the Bears. BUT, I trust the talent on this roster far more than the Bears. The Commanders are stout on the defensive line (6th in Rush Defense DVOA & 7th in team sacks) and they're excellent on 3rd down defensively (only allowing a conversion 30.4% of the time). While their offense leaves a lot to be desired, the talent is there. With the likes of Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, Brian Robinson, etc., there is definitely big play ability, something they've shown all year. The icing on the cake is how good Carson Wentz has been throughout his career on Thursday Night Football. He's 6-0, while averaging 240.5 yards, 2.5 TDs, & 0.3 INTs. I like the Commanders in this spot, I expect them to win this one with relative ease.
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New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers (-7.5) (3U) ?
Say what you will about the Packers, but they still have Aaron Rodgers and they are in Green Bay this week. They are still ranked 9th in Team DVOA, but their defense needs to step up. If they allow the Jets to run the football early and get Zach Wilson going with play-action then it could be a long day. But I believe in talent, this Packers defense is LOADED with first-round talent. 7 first-round picks headed by the eldest Kenny Clark (only 27 years old!). The Jets are riding high following two consecutive wins since Zach Wilson has returned. I can't take away what the Jets have done, they look competent on both sides of the football. But while competent, I've seen bits of inconsistency from their team. I also don't believe in Robert Saleh as a coach yet, so I'll zag on the Jets for now. I think this is the get-right game for the Packers, and Rodgers is going to remind everyone why he won back-to-back MVPs. Packers win by two touchdowns.
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Football Giants (+5.5) (2U) ???
I am never a fan of betting on my teams, but when will the Giants start to get respect? They've beaten two good teams, and the one game they lost was still only by one score. The Giants entire team has been revitalized by the emergence of Daboll as one of the top young coaches. This pick is simple, the Giants lean on the run and the Ravens have been bad against the run this year (26th in Rush Defense DVOA). I love what I've seen from Daniel Jones through six weeks, he made one mistake in Week 1 and hasn't made a mistake since. Wink Martindale is the former defensive coordinator for the Ravens, and he saw Lamar up close in practice every day for 3 years. I like the Giants to cover here, hopefully they can pull out a win.
New England Patriots (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns (2U) ???
Are the Patriots back? I think they are. Bilechick has established a real identity for this football team. They run the football hard, and play stout defense. They are ranked 11th in Offensive Rush DVOA and ranked 9th in Overall Defensive DVOA. The Browns have been abysmal against the run this year, ranked dead last in efficiency. This is the week where the public starts to realize that this Patriots team might be for real.
Carolina Panthers @ Los Angeles Rams (-10) (1U) ???
The Panthers just fired their coach, and they might be the worst team in football. Their interim coach, Steve Wilks, went 3-13 as a head coach for the Cardinals in 2018. The Rams desperately need to win and dominate to get their swagger back. The Rams have been bad offensively: there is holes in their offensive line, the only skill player producing is Cooper Kupp, and Matthew Stafford looks like a shell of himself. This defense is still very efficient, ranked 10th in DVOA. I look for the defense to lead the way today and possibly get a touchdown to cement the cover. Rams dominate an opponent who aren't in the same class as them.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1U) ???
Truthfully, this game could go either way. I can dive into all the analytics I want, and it might not make a difference whatsoever. These are definitively the two best teams, two best quarterbacks, and two best offenses in football. The Bills are looking for revenge for their heart-wrenching loss in the Divisional Round last year. The Chiefs will have to control the clock because they don't have as much big play ability with the loss of Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs defense hasn't been great against the pass, but decent against the rush. The Bills barely run the ball, and are DOMINANT passing the ball. The Bills are a better football team, but you can never count out Mahomes at home. I can't help but lean Bills here. I think they prove they're the best team in football in this game.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) (1U) ???
This seems like it will be the final Cooper Rush game. While the Cowboys have been great through 5 games, they haven't played anyone the caliber of the Eagles yet. Philly is 2nd in Team DVOA (#5 Offensive, #5 Defensive), they are loaded with talent and have all the confidence in the world. I think Cooper Rush will be in over his head in this game. With him at QB, the most they have scored is 25 against the Commanders in Week 4. Dallas has been elite defensively, thanks to historic performances from Micah Parsons (ranked 6th in Defensive DVOA). Ultimately, I think this game will come down to QB talent, and Hurts is just better than Rush. I like the Eagles to win by a touchdown.