NFL Week 3 Picks

It is no secret, the NFL is King. The NFL Season is the most exciting portion of the sports' calendar every year. There is not another sport that captivates the hearts and minds of fans (and now gamblers) like football. With that said, I will be making picks all season long and posting them weekly.

Record (Season-to-Date): 6-6 (+0.6U)

*I'd like to emphasize this is for fun, and by no means is this information financial advice*

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (-4) (2 Units) ???

This pick, at its core, is my way of saying that I do not believe in Mitch Trubisky and he does not deserve to be a starting QB in the NFL. He ranks in the bottom 5 in expected points added per play (EPA/play), success rate, and completion percentage over expected (CPOE). While this might sound like gibberish to some, these stats are great indicators of success/failure for QBs. The Steelers' offense has been sluggish and inefficient to start the season. Their offensive line has had issues, and their limitations at QB hasn't done them any favors. They have scored just 2 (TWO!) offensive touchdowns in 2 games. And I know some of you might be saying "Well Matt, what about their defense? They've forced 6 turnovers so far!" Exactly. Even with 6 turnovers and a +4 differential, they are 1-1 and were a missed PAT from being 0-2. Oh, and I forgot to mention, last year's DPOY TJ Watt is out for the game with a torn pectoral muscle. On the other side, the Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Jets on Sunday that they are looking to forget (*cough* NICK CHUBB *cough*). While they should have won the game if Nick Chubb just went down and ran out the clock; their defense looked atrocious in the final two minutes of the game. Even though Jacoby Brissett doesn't necessarily inspire a lot of confidence at QB, I believe in him far more than I do Mitch. Also, through two weeks, the Browns have showed me that despite their limitations, this is a very good roster from top to bottom. With that said, I think the Browns win by a touchdown tonight.

ML Parlay: Kansas City Chiefs & Buffalo Bills (+100) (2U) ?

What else is there to say? I think this will be the last week where you are going to be able to get the Chiefs & Bills at a discount. Vegas will eventually adjust as these teams continue to dismantle their opponents.

Josh Allen and the Bills look unstoppable, and the craziest part is, I don't think that they are close to playing their best football. While the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa might have proven themselves in Week 2, they're still coming off a highly emotional win and facing what is definitively the best team in the NFL. The Bills' secondary is definitely hampered: Micah Hyde is out for the year, Jordan Poyer is nursing a foot issue, and Tre'Davious White is still on the PUP list. This might leave the door open for the Dolphins to cover 5.5 points, but I think there is a better chance that the Bills win outright than the Dolphins covering.

Although the Chiefs should have lost to the Chargers in Week 2, you can't deny how good Mahomes looks without Tyreek Hill. Anything can happen on any given Sunday, but with how the Colts looked through two games it would take a near miracle for them to beat a far superior team like the Chiefs. The Colts are missing arguably their best defensive player, Shaq Leonard. He tends to be the tone-setter for this team defensively in the past few seasons. Also, aside from Michael Pittman Jr, I can't name single receiver on this Colts team (I can but for the sake of my point let's imagine I can't). Matt Ryan does not look great at 37 years old, he has 1 TD to 4 INTs this year. It would take a herculean effort from Jonathan Taylor for the Colts to steal this one in Indy against the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes has faced a Gus Bradley defense a total of 7 times in his career. He is 6-1, with 1,821 Yards and 17 TDs & 2 INTs. Who's the defensive coordinator for the Colts? Gus Bradley!

Las Vegas Raiders (-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1U) ?

Both of these teams should probably be 1-1 rather than 0-2, but the Titans are just a bad football team. Derrick Henry looks slow and inefficient, Ryan Tannehill is a disaster without weapons, they're missing key pieces to injury (Harold Landry, Bud Dupree, Taylor Lewan), and they traded away arguably their most talented player in AJ Brown this off-season. This team has no identity and you've seen them struggle immensely through two weeks. The Titans are the worst team in the NFL in terms of Team DVOA (advanced stat that measures a team's overall efficiency in all facets of football). This is a team that will have a top-5 pick in the 2023 Draft. While Josh McDaniels and the Raiders haven't played up to the standards expected of them, they've at least been extremely competitive through two games. They lost a heartbreaker to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals after Kyler Murray pulled out his cape and played Superman for the afternoon. This is as close to a must-win as you'll get in Week 3, a team's chances of making the playoffs are just 3% after starting 0-3. I like the Raiders to get their first win here.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ Los Angeles Chargers (1U) ???

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been the biggest surprise so far this season. Some, like myself, are less surprised than others. I picked them to win the AFC South this year. This team went out this offseason and seriously improved their roster through both free agency and the draft. There is real talent on this roster. The upgrade from Urban Meyer to a Super Bowl-winning coach like Doug Pederson cannot be understated enough. The Jaguars are ranked 2nd (SECOND!) behind only the Buffalo Bills in Team DVOA so far. Trevor Lawrence has looked every bit like a 1st overall pick, and their defense is FAST. The Chargers have one of the best rosters in the league this year, I personally believe the Bills are the only team that is more talented. However, who knows if Justin Herbert even plays with a rib cartilage fracture. Even if he does play, he could be limited. Both of these teams should probably be 2-0, but I'm going with the healthier of the two. I like the Jaguars, to at the very least, cover a field goal.

Green Bay Packers (+1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2U) ???

The Bucs are a very, very rough 2-0 to start the year. The Steelers are the only team with less offensive first downs than the Bucs, and we saw how they looked on Thursday night. The truth is, this Bucs team is decimated by injuries to both their receiving core and offensive line. With Chris Godwin out, Julio Jones and Russell Gage both questionable, and Mike Evans serving a one-game suspension, the Bucs receiving core is so thin that they have resorted to signing and promoting Cole Beasley to their active roster. Without receivers that he can trust and a porous offensive line, Tom Brady has to get rid of the ball quickly so don't expect many big splash plays from this offense. The run game has suffered as a result; it's been inefficient to start the season. While the defense has played great, they faced Dak Prescott/Cooper Rush and Jameis Winston in their first two games. I don't trust them to pick up enough of the offense's slack against Aaron Rodgers. The Packers looked ugly in Week 1, but they seemed to have found an identity against the Bears on Sunday night last week. It seems as if the offense will run through Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion for the foreseeable future, until Rodgers develops rapport with some of these young receivers. I expect this game to be low scoring with the Packers coming away with a victory, most likely by a field goal.

San Francisco 49ers @ Denver Broncos Football Club (+1)(3U)???

This pick will probably get the most push-back of any of my picks, and ironically, this is the game I am most confident in. The Broncos have not been great, but in football you get very small sample sizes to base decisions off of early in the season. Efficiency-wise, the Broncos offense has been better than advertised. Situationally, they've been a disaster. There will be regression to the mean, the Broncos and Nathaniel Hackett will get better situationally as the season goes on. The Broncos have been excellent defensively. They're ranked 5th in Defensive DVOA (this is an advanced stat that measures a team's overall efficiency on defense), granted it's been against Geno Smith & the Seahawks and Davis Mills & the Texans. Although the 49ers are a much more formidable foe, Jimmy Garoppolo is a horrifically average QB so it could be more of the same. Russell Wilson is 8-2 against Kyle Shanahan in his career; Kyle Shanahan actually said he was "happy" when the news broke that Wilson would be headed to Denver. The 49ers are no walk in the park, they're a tough matchup for the Broncos. They also have a top-5 ranked defense in terms of DVOA, and there is a proven track record of team success when Jimmy Garoppolo is starting. I think the difference in this game will be the altitude on a September evening in Denver, as well as the talent disparity between Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo. Broncos win a close one on Sunday night, most likely on a game-winning drive by Russell Wilson.