NFL Under Duress List - Week 18

Here we are at Week 18. It all comes down to this for many teams as we bid farewell to the 2023 NFL regular season.

Reflecting on last week, the Kansas City Chiefs secured their eighth consecutive AFC West title with a victory over the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead.

On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers missed the opportunity to clinch the NFC South title, facing a setback with a loss to the New Orleans Saints. Nevertheless, their playoff aspirations are still within their control.

The Seattle Seahawks experienced a significant setback with a disappointing loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, diminishing their chances of making the playoffs. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh remains determined, pushing hard for a last-minute entry.

As we approach the final games of the regular season, the teams under the most pressure are:

Buffalo Bills

The upcoming matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins is one of the games of the weekend, with the AFC East title on the line. The stakes are even higher for the Buffalo Bills, as a potential win-or-go-home situation looms.

A victory for the Bills in this crucial game would secure the AFC East title for the fourth consecutive year and position them as the No.2 seed in the AFC. This not only guarantees a spot in the playoffs but also grants home-field advantage unless they were to face the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.

However, the scenario is precarious for the Bills, as a loss to Miami could potentially jeopardise their playoff hopes if the Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers were to win their final games. The Steelers face the top-seeded Ravens, likely with resting starters, while the Jaguars go to the Tennessee Titans in a must-win game for the AFC South title.

The Bills, having experienced the unpredictability of their season, understand the importance of securing the No.2 seed to host playoff games at the tundra of Orchard Park, rather than going on the road as a wild card to face to face the Chiefs or the Dolphins in their first playoff game.

The Dolphins, although having clinched a playoff spot, are also aware of the implications of this game. A loss would see them drop to the No. 6 seed in the AFC, which would mean a difficult road trip to Kansas City in the wildcard round of the postseason. The Bills dominated the Dolphins in their previous meeting in Week 4, setting the stage for a tense and pivotal rematch that will determine the trajectory of both teams in the playoffs.

Next Game: Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

The upcoming game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans carries immense significance in the AFC South, as both teams are vying for the final wildcard spot to secure a spot in the postseason.

The Colts' recent 23-20 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, combined with the Cincinnati Bengals' loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, has positioned them to make the playoffs with a win over the Texans.

Furthermore, the Colts could potentially clinch the AFC South title for the first time since 2014 if they beat the Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Tennessee Titans. However, a loss for the Colts would eliminate them from playoff contention, as both Buffalo and Cleveland would have more wins, securing the first two wild-card spots, and the Colts would lose the tiebreaker to the Jaguars in the AFC South.

For the Texans, the equation is the same: a win guarantees them a spot in the playoffs. If the Jaguars also lose then they will win the AFC South. Following their convincing 26-3 win over the Tennessee Titans last week, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud emphasised the immediacy of the opportunity, stating, "It’s not next year. It’s not the year after that. It’s right now. We have the opportunity to control our own destiny.”

On the flip side, if the Texans lose to the Colts, they will be eliminated from playoff contention. A tie, while giving them a slim chance, would also require specific outcomes, including a Jaguars loss to the Titans and the Pittsburgh Steelers not winning against the Baltimore Ravens.

The NFL's decision to flex it into the primetime slot on Saturday night underscores its significance, with both teams essentially facing a play-in scenario for postseason contention.

Next Game: Colts vs Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium

Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers find themselves in a situation where they have a chance to make the postseason, a scenario that might not have seemed likely just a few weeks ago.

Heading into the Sunday night battle against the Minnesota Vikings last week, the Packers knew that winning their last two games would secure them a spot in the playoffs. Currently tied with the Seahawks at 8-8, the Packers hold the tiebreaker based on strength of victory, giving them an edge in the playoff race if they finish the season with the same record.

In a familiar win-and-in situation reminiscent of the 2022 season finale, where a loss to the Detroit Lions knocked them out of the playoff picture, the Packers are set to face their arch-rivals, the Chicago Bears, in the final game of the season. The Bears, having won six out of their last seven games, present a formidable challenge, and denying the Packers a playoff spot would be particularly satisfying for the Bears organisation.

A victory at Lambeau Field in the upcoming game would secure a playoff spot for the Packers, either as the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. However, if the Packers fail to beat the Bears, they would need specific outcomes in other games to sneak into the playoffs, which includes losses by the Seahawks, Vikings and one of the Buccaneers or Saints.

Given the impressive turnaround in the latter part of the season, starting 3-6 but winning five of their last seven games, the Packers' potential playoff berth would be a remarkable achievement, especially in their first season after Aaron Rodgers' departure, with Jordan Love as their quarterback. The upcoming game against the Bears holds immense significance, and the Packers are poised for a dramatic conclusion to the regular season as they aim to secure their place in the postseason.

Next Game: Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field