NFL Draft Analysis by Position and Round

This is a simple analysis of NFL draft picks by team and by position. The data used was NFL draft data from 2014-2017. Positions were grouped together at a higher level to help assist with pattern identification. For example, DBs consists of safeties and corners. The draft rounds were also grouped. Early rounds = rounds 1 and 2, Middle rounds = rounds 3 and 4, late rounds = rounds 5-7. Please note that the positions are sorted L-R offense to defense.

Let's start with an expanded view of the early rounds (first column). Right off the bat we notice a few common patterns in the first two rounds.

• Most teams that have a franchise quarterback are not picking QBs in the first round. Most teams follow this pattern and it makes logical sense. No point in spending a lot of money on a QB when you already have a franchise QB for several more years.
• A more interesting trend to note is the fact that running backs are rarely taken in the first round these days. While we don't show historical NFL draft data beyond 2014, anyone that follows NFL football history can probably assume that running backs have historically been taken much more frequently in the early rounds of the draft. The fact that there has been a huge drop off in running backs picked suggests that teams find those positions to be extremely high risk in the early rounds.
• One final pattern that we see is the trend of defensive players taken in the early rounds. The Bengals, Bucs, Giants, Jags, Rams, Seahawks, and Titans took more offensive vs defensive players in the first two rounds. Ten of these teams appear to have taken an equal number of players on both sides of the ball. This means more than TWICE as many NFL teams took more defensive players in the first two rounds of the draft.

In this expanded view of the middle rounds (second column), we start seeing a shift in draft strategy for some teams. We also see a wider variation in the number of picks per team in rounds 3 and 4.

• One of the biggest insights we're able to visualize in the middle rounds is the Patriots drafting patterns. You'll notice an overwhelming emphasis on the offensive and defensive lines. Side note: notice how the Patriots have the lowest number of early round picks, but one of the highest number of picks in the middle rounds.
• Overall we start to see more of a spread of picks by position for the various teams. 
• The Bills and the Panthers have the lowest number of picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds (5 each). Without doing the in-depth research, one can assume they probably used those picks as ammunition to move up.
• Finally, we see running backs starting to get picked with more frequency in these middle rounds.

Lastly, we look at the late round picks in this expanded view of rounds 5-7 (last column).

• Due to compensatory picks along with the fact that there are 3 rounds included in this group, we see a large volume of picks. One interesting trend to note is the fact that quarterbacks are NOT picked by some teams. Being a quarterback coach, I wonder if this has to do with the fact that very rarely do late round quarterbacks pan out (I'm going to pause now and allow you guys all to scream at the monitor and say "But Tim, Tom Brady was a 6th rounder!!!". As always, there are outliers. Yes, Tom Brady you are an outlier in data science terms.
• A few other minor things of note as we examine this last group. Specialists are finally picked (welcome to the party).
• We also see that some teams do NOT like picking receivers. I wonder if it's due to the same reason as late-round quarterbacks?

Overall, I find the most interesting piece of this the Patriots point that I mentioned earlier. As I created this, my mind instantly went to some of these top teams that have consistently performed well over the past few years. When I look at teams like the Patriots, the Packers (it pains me to say this as a Bears fan), Seahawks, and Steelers, I notice two main patterns. 

1. Draft defense early. Known for some of the top defenses in the league, these four teams all go heavy defense in the first two rounds. Packers 6/8, Patriots 4/5, Seahawks 3/7, Steelers 7/8. That's a whopping 20/28 defensive players taken in the first two rounds of these playoff caliber teams.
2. Build up your Offensive and Defensive line. This is not as flashy as #1, but you still see hints of a focus on linemen (especially with the Patriots and the Seahawks).

That's it for now. I would love to hear your feedback and any other quick/simple analysis you have suggestions for. I have plenty more to share based on the data I've gotten, but I thought I'd start with some very simple analysis. Thanks!