The NFL Coaching Hire Playbook: Strategy, Spin, and WTF

You might think that a multi-billion-dollar business such as the NFL would approach hiring head coaches with the precision of a military operation—cutting-edge psychological profiling, case studies in game strategy, and rigorous vetting.

You’d be wrong.

The latest go-round of the NFL coaching carousel proves that hiring the leader for an NFL team is a confluence of HR, PR, and a whole lotta BS. Upon conducting an in-depth analysis of recent developments in head coaching appointments, three distinct strategies emerge. First, and most desirable, is the ‘Belle of the Football’?strategy. Teams that dangled a young, promising quarterback, nabbed the most sought-after coaching candidates. With quarterback Drake Maye in place, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft had all the leverage he needed to lure former Coach of the Year Mike Vrabel. The Patriots jumped so quickly to hire Vrabel that an astute HR professional might have thrown a flag for being offside. Meanwhile, Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams sealed the deal that transformed Detroit’s coveted Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson from Lion to Chicago Bear.

If you don’t have a young hotshot quarterback to offer, you can pivot to another proven strategy: the Name Recognition Play. Think of it as the Louis Vuitton hire that proves you belong in the airport lounge, even if you’re wearing emotional support sweatpants. That’s what the Las Vegas Raiders did when they landed Pete Carroll, the youngest oldest 73-year-old coach in NFL history. Carroll has a Super Bowl win with Seattle, multiple college championships, and an upbeat philosophy grounded in positive psychology. He’s what’s referred to as a “culture guy”—a smiley Mr. Rogers in a league of vein-bulging knee-gnawers and data-obsessed sideline analysts.

The Dallas Cowboys have a talented quarterback in Dak Prescott, and could have used either the Belle of the Football or Name Recognition strategy. Instead, they enthusiastically embraced the most reckless yet brilliant strategy of all: the WTF. When WTF works, you’re a genius: when it doesn’t you’re a meme. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones flirted with charismatic Colorado coach Deion Sanders, but everyone knew he would never share the stage with a man named Prime. So instead, Jones went with the Westminster Dog Show hire: Brian Schottenheimer—the obedient guy with a solid pedigree who’s unlikely to steal the spotlight. Brian Schottenheimer makes vanilla look like hot-pepper-infused salted caramel with a shot of espresso.

Cowboys fans primed for Prime Time with Deion Sanders scoffed at settling for someone Schotty. But maybe Jerry Jones was onto something—sometimes the WTF candidate works. Case in point: Dan Campbell. When he arrived in Detroit he was greeted with snorts of skepticism—a meathead motivator leading a football team? Now he’s widely considered to be the prototypical Leader of Men with a penchant for aggressive play-calling that displays his faith in his players and keeps them in his corner.

WTF is the strategy I use all the time. It’s responding to an unreasonable request with an ‘Unsubscribe’. It’s wearing silk pajamas to a networking event. It’s venturing out in public with “The Lady is a Tramp” as my ringtone. WTF’s a gamble, but if you own it, people assume that you’re a badass playing four-dimensional chess.

Perhaps that’s the real takeaway from the NFL coaching carousel. In the unpredictable game of the NFL and life, boldness is often mistaken for brilliance.?

So if no one can predict the outcome, why not make them think you know something they don’t?