The Next Pacific War?

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Good afternoon.? A friend of mine and I were talking the other day about the INDO-PACIFIC and how this theater over the past two decades has taken a back seat to CENTCOM.? CENTCOM is important, but the future resides in INDO-PACOM.? PACOM covers 52% of the world’s surface with 36 nations, ~50% of the world's population, two of three largest economies in the world, seven of the world's ten largest standing militaries and five nations with nuclear weapons.?

Against that backdrop, I am here to talk to you today about the potential conflicts in the Pacific vs China, vs North Korea, or God forbid, both countries.? We tend to focus on China, while not realizing the worst-case scenario for the US would be conflict in the littoral’s vs China and conflict vs North Korea on the peninsula.? Can we predict when this next war will occur?? In history, gifted thought leaders have predicted future conflict. Before WWI the book, The Future of War, was written by Ivan Bloch in 1898--a Polish banker and railroad investor---who wrote a six-volume study on modern warfare. He (for the most part) gets everything right except the fact mankind would “March to Folly” in 1914.? He anticipates trench warfare, the killing power of artillery, the lethality and extended range of rifles and machine guns, the logistics challenges of WWI, the length of the war (not 1870/71 all over again), the difficulty of C2ing large conscript formations in a high lethality, extended battlefield, and the high cost (casualties and $$) of a war. He believes war is impossible because no one could win. That assessment is essentially the only thing Ivan got wrong in his future war forecast.?

Published in 1925, Hector Bywater’s, The Great Pacific War foretold WWII in the Pacific…to include the Japanese surprise attack, the invasion of Guam and the Philippines, and the US island hopping campaign that led to victory.? After this book was published, the US War Plan Orange was modified to reflect some of these predictions.? So today, do Admiral Stavridis and Elliot Ackerman have it right in their superb book 2034? Will we face a China and Iran alliance against the USA? ?In the spirit of hope for the best, plan for the worst, I believe we need to be ready to fight multiple adversaries at the same time in the Far East, Middle East, and the global commons. Russia? This scenario would stress test our nation and our military to levels not seen since WWII.?? ?

Lastly, I believe in dealing with China we talk past each other—in a “Lost in Translation” way.? It is also not clear to me what “success” would look like in a war with China, nor do we fully understand each other’s motivation.? We also hear in political science venues that in a crisis, the US should “escalate to de-escalate”.? That sounds good in theory until you factor in national pride, emotion, and the personalities of the leadership in each country.? All this a preamble to the fact that conflict with China would be catastrophic for all parties, but that has not stopped countries from “Marching to Folly” before.?

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?To set the stage for what conflict in the Pacific and Peninsula would be like, past is to a degree prologue. We could fight in Korea because we had just fought WWII.? Ships, tanks, planes, and other warfighting materiel from WWII were used in Korea.? Korea was a bloody three-dimension sea, air, and land conflict. My Uncle Henry flew in B-24s in the SW Pacific in WWII and then B-29s in Korea.? US aircraft dropped 635K tons of bombs on North Korean and Chinese positions, compared to the 500K tons dropped in the Pacific theater in WWII. The US and UN forces used sea power with great strategic impact by landing at Inchon and outmaneuvering North Korean and Chinese forces.? In the land domain, Korea by all measure was a meat-grinder, as evidenced by the Battle of Pork Chop Hill towards the end of the war.? In the future, we may be fighting the Chinese and North Koreans in seven domains---with space, cyber, and the cognitive domain emerging as decisive domains.

We know the Chinese missile threat and Anti-Access, Area Denial capabilities are significant, especially against US naval forces. Chinese progress in space and their ability to shoot down or debilitate satellites is also worrisome.? In terms of high-end quality weapons systems (think F35), cyber capability and capacity, and power projection the US has a potential edge.? On the peninsula, the North Koreans can inflict massive rocket and artillery damage on Seoul, one of the world’s largest cities. In terms of C2 of joint operations and the ability to mass fires and create kinetic and non-kinetic effects, the US and our allies are very capable. However, in the spirit of “quantity has a quality” all its own, both China and Korea can throw a lot of manpower and munitions into each conflict.?

Lastly, it is often said that China is operating on interior lines, and we will be operating along exterior lines. In a Pacific fight, if we can “subsist and persist” throughout the area of operations and retain the ability to generate effects, we can potentially neutralize that perceived advantage.

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INDO-PACOM requirements can be binned as follows (my view only).? Access is paramount.? Though we have presence throughout the Pacific, China is doing its best to create access, as evidenced by the recent agreement with Guadalcanal and their island building efforts in the South China Sea.? For the US, setting-the-theater actions that logistically support US and allied military forces bolster our partner and serve as a deterrent to China.? These set-the-theater actions, when done in close coordination with the Joint Logistics Enterprise (JlEnt), will provide us the ability to surge capacity when and where needed.

Assured command and control (C2/C5ISR-T) is vitally important to US forces.? It ensures we can conduct joint operations effectively and efficiently, while generating high op-tempo, and out-observing, orienting, and deciding the Chinese and North Korean (OODA loop).? Our C2 needs to be secure, resilient, reliable, secure, and regenerative.?

All of the warfighting functions are important, but logistics in these scenarios will be decisive.? Joint logistics will enable us to “persist” in the Pacific and “persevere” on the Peninsula. Logistics that extends operational and tactical reach, supports maneuver, and prevents area denial, and generates lethality and shock effect will be critical.? As we look to these conflicts, what has or will change (please see list above).? As we look to these conflicts, what will not change (please see list above).? ?

One last thought is the role of allies and partners.? We want to maintain strong relations with India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, and Singapore, while securing new friendships with potential partners throughout the Indo-Pacific.? ?

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The above contains a lot of data, but it is a “compare and contrast” of the US and China in non-military categories.? In the spirit of knowing yourself and knowing your competition the following is highlighted:

*China and the US are roughly the same size in land area, but China has four times our population.?

*Though we are not self-sufficient in energy, we are more energy independent than China.

*China and the US have an aging demographic, but if immigration trends continue, the US will be younger in relative terms and continue to attract 1/5th of the world’s immigrants.

? *Chinese infrastructure is very robust and its overall economic growth since the 1980s has outpaced what the US achieved during the Industrial Revolution.?

*China imports 8% if its food, we import 15%.? Climate change impact on the food supply, for both countries, will be destabilizing.?

*China’s STEM PhD numbers are impressive.??

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?In closing, during my two years as the PACOM J5, I traveled constantly.? The long Pacific flights gave me a lot of time to read.? These books are recommended reading for anyone working the China portfolio.? First is Chinese Characteristics written by a Protestant missionary in China.? His observations of the people and culture of China are timeless.? In essence, he predicts their rise to power and he feels they are the most industrious and strong-willed people he has ever met.? Robert Haddick, who served as a Marine, wrote Fire on the Water which is a compelling read.? He argues for a strategy anchored in presence and partnerships, asymmetric power, and attacking (non-kinetically) Chinese weaknesses.? Unbalanced is a great read on the US-China economic relationship.? AI Superpowers is a great read and the author, a Chinese entrepreneur says the US may be more creative than China, but China is more innovative.? He defines innovation as the ability to make what we (the US) build, much better.? Mao’s Red Book is a very interesting read.? For anyone just beginning their study of China, Henry Kissinger’s, On China, is a must read.? Lastly, the PRC has released a movie depicting their version of the Chosin Reservoir battle in late 1950.? This film has grossed $800M domestically due to widespread support for the movie’s premise, which is China’s ability to fight and “win” in the face of American firepower.

Thank you for your time today and please let me know if you have any questions.