Next cycle (next five years) drone industry trends and analysis

When the technology is mature enough, he becomes a tool. The same is true for drones.

Recently, a "huge purchase of drone orders from the Indian military to DJI, was rejected by DJI" news spread "all over the city", however, DJI has told the media that "the content of the relevant rumours is seriously inaccurate, DJI has not received an order invitation from the Indian side. DJI has not received an order invitation from India, and will not export drones for military use.

The World UAV Congress held in Shenzhen last month also passed more than a month, and the trend prediction of the development of the drone industry has not been able to put pen to paper. In this news "stimulus", finally have some touch.

In the next five years, perhaps up to 2030 within six or seven years, I think the drone industry trends may have the following aspects.

First, military use is essential

In the global situation is unpredictable, or "a hundred years have not been a big change", military applications of drones will be more and more in-depth, although the jittery voice, video number often brushed similar to the "swarm" of the cluster drone video is just to win the flow of work, but the future is not impossible to become a reality, but it's not impossible to become a reality, but the future is not possible. In the future, it is not impossible to become a reality, but very likely.

Back to the beginning of India's procurement of drones, in fact, the drones used for military purposes is still far from competent, the use of this approach is still only in the scope of the Palestinian and Israeli military conflict around 2014 for reconnaissance.

Despite the fact that DJI drones are now optimised in terms of handling and other aspects, there is actually no qualitative improvement and their mounts are limited.

This is therefore an oversensitive and over-interpretation of drones.

The drones that are really used for military purposes are the Rainbow series, which is exported by China for inspection and combat purposes, and some other products.

However, under the current international situation, the military use of drones will continue to deepen, regardless of whether or not there will be a détente in the near future. This is because this aspect truly embodies the characteristics of "unmanned", and the technology is highly mature and the use of mobile and flexible.

Based on this, the author believes and calls on the state to formulate strict policies to control the export of drone-related technology.

Second, industrial use is becoming more and more normalised

The opposite of military use is industry use, after consumer drones have gradually silenced the market since 2018, industry drones have developed rapidly in these five years.

In these years, public security police, border defence, power line inspection and other industry drones have been maturely applied.

At the same time, firefighting drones, which have very rigorous technical requirements, strict standards and high threshold requirements, have also developed. In particular, drones capable of firing firefighting bombs are expected to be equipped at all levels of firefighting units in the future, which, of course, requires a process.

The development of firefighting drones is mainly to solve the height limitation of firefighting ladders. The world's firefighting ladders can lift up to 112 metres, the height of more than 40 floors. Domestic fire ladders are mainly 32~52 metres (15-storey refuge floor height), and the maximum height of domestic fire ladder trucks seems to be 101 metres, and the price is expensive and the start-up is a little slow. And drones have many obvious advantages in this regard: fast start-up, low cost, unmanned, mobile and flexible.

However, to enter the interior of the fire, fire drones are still a bit beyond the reach of this aspect of the need for robots (in fact, drones are also a kind of robot).

If it can be used in the industry in the form of a system, fire drones may be a very huge market, but the government needs to regulate and guide.

As I said earlier, the drone market, the development of the industry class and consumer class is very characteristic and interesting: when the consumer class is hot, the whole market is rarely focused on industry drones, when the consumer market shrinks, the industry drones have been booming.

In fact, this fully reflects the characteristics of capital (and not just venture capital) for the pursuit of the market.

As for consumer drones, DJI is basically the only one in R&D, production and operation, while other consumer drones have basically disappeared. DJI has been focusing on "industry drones" at exhibitions in the past few years.

Third, the general consumer category may bottom out

As we all know, consumer drones are basically the only product of DJI, mainly used in aerial photography and some professional photography.

However, as mentioned above, capital is always looking for new opportunities, for industry drones, venture capital is not interested, because the market is not concentrated enough and not big enough, there are also many uncontrollable factors. Only the consumer category has a vast market.

Consumer drones have basically bottomed out after a five-year cycle of silence, and as various technologies have matured and previously high-cost technologies have tended to become more commonplace, consumer drones may bottom out in the next five-year cycle and find a new market and breaking point.

However, going back to the above market characteristics, when the consumer drone market rebounds again, the industry drone may tend to be "lonely" again, both technology and market development will enter a "slow period".

This may be the consumer and industry drone companies need to pay attention to the cyclical law.

Fourth, ultra-short-range manned drones seem to have the momentum of development.

In consumer drones, DJI once swept the market, appearing to be a dominant "monopoly" of the market, Yihang drone opened the manned drone market, after four or five years of development, the technology is mature, but the development of civil aviation low altitude drone airspace has not been a great deal of progress. Of course, low-altitude navigation is a very important area concerning the safety of life and property, and the formulation of laws and regulations in this area and the trial until the final process of complete liberalisation may not be as fast as desired. Therefore, the experience class manned drones for ultra-short-haul relative airspace seems to have become a new thing in the market.

These drones, which can be deployed at tourist attractions to allow tourists to experience the fun of flying in the air, are relatively safe and cheap.

The market for this type of drone, if it can be safely verified and effectively promoted will be a good market. It is more operable than the low-altitude manned drones that need to be strictly audited for official navigation.

Fifth, brainwave control drone technology will be on a stage

Brain wave control drones, do not know may feel that it is a fantasy, understand the market, master the technical principles will feel not so profound.

I have purchased four years ago, the back also DIY assembly of a brainwave-controlled drone, and within an hour to teach their daughters to use their minds to control the take-off and landing of the drone and the height.

The principle of this drone is to wear a brainwave sensor on your head, and the device converts the brainwave signals into simple signals that can be controlled and sent wirelessly to the drone for control. The most important of these is the brainwave sensor, which was already able to decode the fluctuations of the brainwave signals into a few simple control commands.

In terms of use it was mainly about concentration, so at that time that type of drone was mainly used for children's concentration training and entertainment.

Unfortunately, this aspect was not promoted and popularised.

However, the technology is still evolving and being passed on.

The brain-computer interface technology of Musk and China can be translated and applied to this area once it is more mature. When the technology is able to parse more brainwave consciousness or fluctuations, the function of controlling drones through the idea will also be richer, and the use will be more and more extensive.

Conclusion: the future drone is just a tool

When the technology is mature enough, it becomes a tool.

Just like in the 1980s, when computers were just invented, very few people had access to them, and the technology was not yet very ideal and mature, computers were a very "powerful" technological product at that time. Around 2000, computers have become very popular and no longer mysterious; today, mobile phones and mobile terminals have become a handful, and computers are just a tool that can be found anywhere.

Drones, too.

Apart from the need for continuous progress in terms of range, the drone itself is no longer mysterious, it is just a tool.

Like computers, drones are more often combined with closer and deeper applications.