The Next 15 Years: How America's New Direction Will Reshape Our Future

After reflecting on recent political shifts and their implications for the next 15 years, the picture emerges of a transformative era not only for America but also for the global order. These transformations are extreme, but in talking to those who support the shifts the new U.S. presidency has planned, in international politics it could be not as isolationism or a retreat but rather a deliberate recalibration toward strengthening America's internal capacities and fostering long-term economic leadership.

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I address this future scenario from an economic policy perspective, as my training is in international economics, finance, entrepreneurship and public policy. There will also be profound social impacts, but this is less my training and experience, so this is not what I address in this note.

The End of Globalization As We Know It

The era of "selective globalization" appears poised to redefine global trade dynamics:

• US Manufacturing Employment Doubling to 15% This reflects a focus on internal capacity-building, making the U.S. a global manufacturing leader rather than relying on external economies.
• China’s Share of US Imports Dropping Below 8% This shift is strategic rather than reactive, aiming to reduce dependency while fostering resilient supply chains.
• Mexico as a Key Trade Partner Mexico's role as a "halfway house" for manufacturing underscores its importance in a transitional global supply chain strategy. For certain industries, this may remain a permanent fixture.
• 25–35% Increase in Consumer Goods Prices Tariff policies will require precision to mitigate impacts on essentials like groceries and energy while allowing durable goods to bear the brunt of price hikes. Public patience will hinge on perceived benefits like job growth and long-term economic stability.

This isn't just about trade - it's about a fundamental restructuring of global power dynamics.

The New American Economy

Economic policy will play a pivotal role in sustaining these shifts:

• Federal Revenue Sources and Spending Shifts Transitioning federal revenue to tariffs and reducing spending will create a leaner, state-focused fiscal model.
• Financial Hubs Shifting Miami and Dallas may emerge as hubs for innovation and deregulation, but these shifts must balance consumer protections with opportunities for growth.
• Bitcoin and Transparency Concerns The forecast of Bitcoin as legal tender faces challenges tied to global efforts to curb illicit financing and ensure transparency. This raises questions about the broader implications for distributed ledger systems and blockchain.
• Homeownership as a Game-Changer Policies encouraging homeownership could solidify generational wealth transfer and stability, aligning with long-held American values. However, balancing interest rates, construction costs, and supply-chain challenges will be key to making this a reality.
• Bitcoin will be legal U.S. tender, used in parallel with the U.S. dollar, similar to what is already done in El Salvador, becoming both a commonly used medium of exchange and store of value.

Demographic and Social Transformation

The American social fabric will experience significant shifts:

• Legal Immigration Dropping to 400,000 Annually Reflecting a significant policy shift that will reshape workforce demographics and economic dependencies.
• Urban-Rural Population Split Shifting to 75-25 Marking a trend toward suburban and rural living, driven by affordability and lifestyle preferences.
• Multi-Generational Households Increasing to 25% Economic pressures and cultural shifts will drive the rise of shared living arrangements across generations.
• Trade School Enrollments Doubling A growing emphasis on practical, job-ready skills in response to manufacturing and trade sector demands.
• Traditional College Enrollment Declining by 30% Indicating a shift away from conventional higher education toward alternative career pathways.
• The Creative Economy and U.S. Soft Power Innovation and entertainment industries will remain pivotal, leveraging AI and emerging technologies to accelerate wealth creation through intellectual and cultural capital.

The Technology Paradox

A recalibrated tech landscape will shape innovation:

• Domestic Semiconductor Leadership Achieving 35% global production is vital, but the U.S. must also address interoperability with parallel Chinese systems that could grow due to the US denial of key tech exports to China, like advanced semiconductor chips. This could lead to globally bifurcated tech ecosystems.
• Focused Innovation AI will play a significant role, but the integration of creativity and innovation into AI applications is vital for fostering sustainable, value-added industries.

Environmental Realities

Environmental Realities

• Emissions Increasing 15% from 2024 Levels Reflecting the challenges of balancing industrial growth with environmental sustainability.
• Coastal States Implementing Independent Carbon Pricing Highlighting localized efforts to address climate impacts amid varying national policies.
• Nuclear Power Reaching 30% of the Energy Mix Marking a significant shift toward cleaner, reliable energy sources as part of a diversified energy strategy.
• Water Rights Emerging as a Major Interstate Issue Water access and allocation will become critical, driving policy and infrastructure changes across states.

Food Security

Food security must be integral to long-term strategies:

• Global Food Security Climate and water challenges, coupled with population growth, will make U.S. leadership in agriculture indispensable. Reclaiming energy dominance will further solidify America’s role as a stable partner for regions like Africa and the Indo-Pacific, counterbalancing global instability. However, can America take the lead in agriculture in a way that will also be sustainable in the long-run?

Key Metrics to Watch (2024-2039)

Economic Indicators:

• GDP Growth Averaging 1.8% Annually A modest pace of growth reflecting a focus on sustainability and structural economic shifts.
• Manufacturing Sector Reaching 22% of GDP Signaling a resurgence in domestic production as industrial policies take hold.
• Trade Deficit Reducing by 60% A significant improvement driven by selective globalization and reshored supply chains.
• Median Household Income Growing 12% in Real Terms A positive but moderate increase, emphasizing the need for continued wage growth and economic equity.

Social Metrics:

• Income Inequality (Gini Coefficient) Rising to 0.45 A significant increase from 0.39, reflecting deeper social stratification and wealth concentration.
• Urbanization Rate Dropping to 75% A notable shift toward rural and suburban living, driven by economic and cultural factors.
• Homeownership Rate Increasing to 70% Policies fostering homeownership could drive generational wealth creation, but this will depend on balancing construction costs, interest rates, and supply chain challenges.
• Regional Economic Disparities Increasing by 40% Highlighting the uneven benefits of economic shifts, with some regions thriving while others face stagnation.

What This Means for Professionals

1. Skill Development

- Focus on practical, manufacturing-related skills

- Emphasis on trade expertise over traditional degrees

- Growing importance of state-specific regulatory knowledge

2. Career Opportunities

- Manufacturing and trade-related positions expanding

- State-level government and regulatory roles growing

- Opportunities in resource management and nuclear energy

3. Business Strategy

- Focus on domestic supply chains

- State-level market strategies becoming crucial

- New corporate structures for tariff optimization

Strategic Takeaways

1. The U.S. is moving toward greater self-sufficiency but reduced global influence

2. Economic growth will slow but become more geographically distributed

3. Technology development will focus more on practical applications

4. Environmental and social challenges will increasingly be addressed at state/local levels

5. Business success will require understanding state-level dynamics

Final Thoughts

We're entering a period of profound transformation. While some may see this as an American retreat from global leadership, it might better be understood as a restructuring of American priorities and capabilities. Success in this new era will require adaptability, local knowledge, and a willingness to embrace change.

What are your thoughts on these forecasts? Are they desirable? Are they likely? Are there any where you'd like to know more about?

How do you see these changes affecting your industry?

#FutureOfAmerica #EconomicTrends #GlobalTrade #Politics #Strategy #Leadership David Bray, PhD Frank Kumli Stephen Ibaraki Alain Chetrit Maria Grazia Testa Daniel R. Hires ?? John Poor Steve Gotz Kasia Hartwig Abir Mars Katarzyna (Kasia) Hanula-Bobbitt, LL.M, MBA Katarina Uherova Hasbani Anna Irrera Rosario Londono ElsaMarie D'Silva (she/her) Kimo Arbas Christopher M. Schroeder Mary NAMUKOSE Sylvia Mukasa,NCC,LCPC Tanja Schindler Association of Professional Futurists - APF Bugge Holm Hansen Mira Resnick Maia Gogiberidze Francesco Cuomo Julien Baudot Dr. Martin G. Kaspar Pamela Gupta Ph.D Olfa Fraj Oussama Nidhal Edna Martinez Katia Dumont Dr Julia Baum (Ph.D., EMBA) Dr. Christian Friebe Ricardo J Flores Prof. (Adj.) Amb. (Hon.) Colette Mazzucelli May East, PhD Corrie Dretler Komal Kaul Leigh Steele Genevieve Leveille Ergem Senyuva Tohumcu Palomo Jaime Roberto Lara Yumi Tsuji Bezerra Sergio R. Claros Juan Carlos Diaz Bilbao Ferdinand Eimler Nozipho Makhanda Berat Kjamili David A. Wagner Trinidad Saona Moses Shawaly Chocko Valliappa Erica K. Jennifer Bettinger Lily Sommer Anthony Bennett