Newton Wrap July 2024

Investment insights and analysis to keep you a step ahead.

For professional and institutional investors only.

Featured insight – Double Take: Undoing a presidency

Can US presidents undo regulatory action taken by their predecessors? Steven Balla, associate professor of Political Science, Public Policy and Public Administration and International Affairs at 美国乔治·华盛顿大学 , joins Jack Encarnacao and Raphael (Rafe) Lewis to give a lesson in US regulatory policymaking and detail what areas of existing regulation could change in the second term of either presidential candidate.

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In focus

Investment comment – July 2024

The global economy appears to have been more resilient than many had anticipated, with the US in particular seemingly absorbing the impact of higher interest rates, at least for now. As a result, a soft economic landing remains in prospect, especially as central banks have some flexibility to lower interest rates. However, while inflation has moderated, it remains above target in major economies, which is limiting that flexibility. Investors must also contend with rising international and domestic political tensions which could spark market volatility, especially as key elections, notably in the US, approach.

We consider the implications for financial markets in our latest Investment comment.

Read the UK edition | US edition

Inflation, debt and rates: The trinity defining markets

In this new market regime, we keep talking about how we expect inflation to remain consistently higher than previously and, as a result, interest rates will need to be higher too. Alongside this, elevated levels of post-Covid government debt create a drag on economies which, in turn, can lead to broadly more volatile market returns.

In this blog, we assess the current state of this trinity of market influencers through the lens of our macro themes.

Read the UK edition | US edition

Don’t miss these pieces

UK editions

1. Navigating inflation in DC savings and retirement
2. UK equities: Things can only get better?
3. Core global equities: As relevant today as they have always been

US editions

1. Double Take: Keeping up with Gen Z
2. Small and SMID Caps: Risks and opportunities
3. Retake on Double Take: Realtors’ reality

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