Our weekly newsletter gives a brief overview of the latest developments in geopolitics, security and defense, energy, manufacturing, and supply lines. Striving to provide our clients with enhanced decision-making capability, it includes in-depth articles as well as insights pertaining to growth projections, conflicts, and raw materials, etcetera.
Latest
- Israel stated on Monday, December 16, that a deal with Hamas for hostages held in Gaza is "closer than ever" while Israel plans to expand settlements in the Golan Heights demilitarized buffer zone to double the Israeli population in the area.
- On Monday, December 16, Olaf Scholz lost a vote of confidence in the German parliament triggering early national elections to be held on February 23, 2025, following Scholtz's three-party coalition government collapse in October.
- On December 13, President Macron appointed France's next prime minister Fran?ois Bayrou, leader of the European Democratic Party and a loyalist replacing Michel Barnier, removed on December 4.
Security & defense
- From December 9 to December 12, China deployed 90 naval and coast guard vessels and over 134 warplanes surrounding Taiwan in a third-party deterrence intervention commanded without pre-announcement, further eroding regional security.
- On December 16, Ukraine and the US reported 30 North Korean casualties after their first battle alongside Russia against Ukraine in Kursk. The US vowed sanctions and estimated 80,000 North Korean troops are stationed near Ukraine's border.
- The Russian military has formed a truce with rebels Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria. The US supports the HTS establishment, while the EU is open to lifting its terrorist designation. Turkey has offered military training to the new Syrian administration.?
- On December 16, the US Central Command forces conducted an airstrike on a Houthi command center in Sana’a, Yemen used to coordinate attacks on US Navy ships and merchant vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Energy
- The Biden administration is considering implementing stricter sanctions on the tanker fleet transporting Russian oil and targeting buyers, including India and China.
- Norway's oil and gas industry expects a record investment of 275 billion Norwegian crowns ($24.68 billion) in 2025 due to expanded field developments and additional wells.
- Advances in drilling, subsurface technologies, and fluid flow prediction are unlocking geothermal energy's potential for power, heating, and cooling. Development risks, permitting, and environmental concerns challenge geothermal uptake.
Manufacturing
- Micron Technology received $6.14 billion in CHIPS Act funding from the White House on December 12. The funds will support building memory chip fabs in New York, creating 13,500 jobs, and a $25 billion facility in Idaho, adding 6,500 jobs.
- China has unveiled a new miniaturized, intelligent, and stealthy unmanned aerial system (UAS) designed to challenge US air superiority and work alongside crewed stealth jets.
- Indian suppliers Sona Comstar and Stellantis are in talks with carmakers in China, Japan, and South Korea to expand the supply of components for electric, hybrid, and combustion engine vehicles beyond North America and Europe.
Supply Lines
- Japan’s and China's economic ties face challenges from rising geopolitical tensions, Tokyo’s efforts to reduce its reliance on Beijing, weak demand, and a Chinese economic slowdown.?
- On December 15, the UK joined the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, allowing lower tariffs with Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.
- India's trade deficit hit a record $37.8 billion in November, driven by rising gold imports and a fall in the price of petroleum products, which has led to a decline in merchandise exports.?
Additional
- On December 14, South Korea's National Assembly voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol over his attempt to impose martial law on December 3. Yoon and senior officials face charges of insurrection and abuse of authority.?
- Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Monday, December 16, that he is considering resignation or prorogation after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned over fiscal disagreements.?
- Two Russian oil tankers carrying 4,300 tons each were damaged in rough Black Sea weather, spilling cargo on Sunday, December 15. One sank in the Kerch Strait near Crimea, with 3,700 tons of oil spilled into the sea.?
Insight of the Week:
Happy Holidays! Dear subscriber, please note that this is the final weekly brief before a Consilio’s Christmas break. The Newsletter will be back on January 8.
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