Our weekly newsletter gives a brief overview of the latest developments in geopolitics, security and defense, energy, manufacturing, and supply lines. Striving to provide our clients with enhanced decision-making capability, it includes in-depth articles as well as insights pertaining to growth projections, conflicts, and raw materials, etcetera.
Latest
- A brief but intense diplomatic crisis between Colombia and the Trump administration erupted on January 27. The American President threatened to impose 25% tariffs, rising to 50% after a week, on all Colombian imports if the nation refused to accept deportee flights from the US. Colombian Air Force planes were dispatched on Monday to begin repatriating deported nationals in what marks the return of coercive tariff diplomacy.
- Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen separately met key European leaders Chancellor Olaf Schulz, President Emmanuel Macron, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on January 28. Although other issues were ostensibly discussed, an increasingly worried Denmark appears to be seeking support in protecting Greenland from any American takeover, something which President Trump has expressed growing interest in pursuing.
- On January 27, Rwanda backed M23 rebels entered Goma in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), escalating the long-simmering conflict in the mineral-rich region of Kivu. United Nations (UN) sources claim regular Rwandan troops were also present in the armed contingent. This, once again, raises significant concerns about the future stability of the region given a history of Rwandan intervention.
Security & Defense
- As part of a greater Iran-Russia rapprochement on military cooperation, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) announced on January 27 that it had officially purchased Russian Sukhoi-35 jet fighters. This represents a major improvement to Iran’s dilapidated air force and speaks directly to continually rising tensions with Israel.
- Denmark announced a $2 billion dollar defense spending package on January 27, aimed at shoring up Arctic security in collaboration with Greenland and the Faroe Islands. The development hints at the pressure Copenhagen have been under from Trump’s repeated efforts to gain control of Greenland for security reasons.
- The return of hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians to what remains of their homes in Northern Gaza, a key provision of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, began on Monday 27. 7 Israeli hostages and 290 Palestinian prisoners have so far been released as part of the US, Qatar and Egypt mediated agreement. The destruction of Gaza and first hostage for prisoner swap raises questions about future reconstruction, the viability of the ceasefire and prospects for wider peace in the region.
Energy
- On January 28, state-owned company Masdar announced plans to build the largest battery-backed solar plant in the world. The plant is projected to be able to power up to 700.000 homes. For the oil-rich United Arab Emirates (UAE), this continues a rapidly occurring regional pivot towards renewables funded by fossil fuel capital.
- With Chevron’s investment in Kazakhstan’s largest oil field, Kazakh crude oil production reached a record-high of 2bn bpd (barrels per day) on January 26. The country is an OPEC+ (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries+) member and whilst the boost in production is a boon for Chevron’s investment, it complicates Kazakhstan’s ability to compensate for overproduction as mandated by OPEC+ quotas.
- European LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) imports for January 2025 (est. 38.12 million metric tons) are set to reach the highest level since April 2023. Cargo traders are responding to European consumers outbidding Asian ones and diverting vessels. The wintertime demand for the fuel needed to heat homes in Europe illustrates the continent’s continued dependence on LNG imports as the war in Ukraine forced it to turn away from cheaper Russian pipeline streams.
Manufacturing
- Since October 2024, Chinese EVs (electric vehicles) imported to the EU have been subject to anti-subsidy tariffs ranging from 7.8% to 35%. On January 28, Tesla officially filed a lawsuit against the EU’s tariffs, joining the likes of BMW and several Chinese automakers. The trade dispute illustrates the challenges of implementing protectionist measures in an economy with globalized production chains.
- Canadian helicopter parts company Optima Aero has had to scramble to move its inventory South across the American border fearing Trump’s tariff threats on Canadian goods. The Canadian parts company’s fears illustrate the stress Trump’s tariff threats puts on businesses across what has been a free trade area since 1994’s NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) went into effect.
- As of January 28, reports indicate Belgium-based Cement Giant Titan is seeking a $3.32 billion valuation in the New York IPO of its US branch, Titan America. The global giant’s expansion to the American stock market is symptomatic of European corporations’ desire to seek the wider investor bases and higher valuations traditionally associated with American markets.
Supply Lines
- The Gemini project, a joint vessel-sharing alliance between shipping giants MAERSK and Hapag-Lloyd, is set to enable hub terminals to move 30% more containers significantly improving schedule accuracy. This partnership seems poised to increase the efficiency of global shipping infrastructure, avoiding delays, shortening delivery times, and providing greater transparency.
- On January 20, President Trump issued an Executive Order all IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) spending, stopping the flow of federal dollars awarded to contractors whose mission was consistent with the Biden administration’s climate, energy, and infrastructure policies. Trump’s spending freeze illustrates the new administration’s prioritization of dismantling its predecessor’s work and aligning federal spending with its own policy outlook.
- A new China-Europe shipping lane through the Suez Canal saw its inaugural ship arrive in Germany in just 26 days instead of 45 days. This new, non-stop route, opened by Chinese company Kawa Shipping represents a fast-lane for high-value goods like cars and lithium batteries. The pioneering route stands to be a major boon for EU-China trade relations and illustrates the ongoing scramble for diverse, improved shipping lanes.
Additional
- On January 20, DeepSeek, a Chinese startup, launched their new AI LLM chatbot of the same name in the US. Its performance and the claim that it was reportedly developed for less than $6 million led global investors to wipe out a record $593 billion (17%) of American tech giant NVIDIA’s stock value in a single day on January 27. The competitive performance of the DeepSeek model and its ostensible development cost, have led to a questioning of American tech giants’ billion-dollar AI spending in recent years.
- Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Omerov refused, on January 27, to extend the contract of the head of the AOZ (Defense Procurement Agency). The Agency was created in 2022 to regulate arms procurement and fight corruption in defense contracts. The move was strongly criticized as standing in the way of anti-corruption efforts and comes at a particularly precarious time for Ukrainian arms procurement given the inauguration of a President historically less supportive than his predecessor.
- Widely criticized elections in Belarus landed President Aleksandr Lukashenko a five-year extension to his leadership term, a position which he has already held for 30 years. The leader still clings to direct power, but reports indicate he is laying the groundwork to keep indirect power when he eventually steps down. The prospect of democracy in Belarus appears unlikely, its position as a domestically autonomous vassal state of the Kremlin seems poised to continue.
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