Our weekly newsletter gives a brief overview of the latest developments in geopolitics, security and defense, energy, manufacturing, and supply lines. Striving to provide our clients with enhanced decision-making capability, it includes in-depth articles as well as insights pertaining to growth projections, conflicts, and raw materials, etcetera.
Latest
- Donald Trump won the US presidency with 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris's 226 on November 5, becoming the 47th President. However, it remains undecided whether the Republicans win the House of Representatives in addition to the Senate.
- North Korea has ratified a defense pact of mutual support in case of armed attacks with Russia. Ukraine faces 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops in an expected counteroffensive in the Kursk region and reinforces besieged fronts in the east and the south.
- Hizbullah’s leader stated ceasefire talks would not be held unless Israel stopped its attacks on Lebanon, a condition openly opposed by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Qatar has paused its mediation in Gaza ceasefire talks due to a deadlock.
Security and Defense
- China is rapidly developing military capabilities for a large-scale conflict with the US, closing the gap in key weapons and technologies despite keeping defense spending under 2% of GDP. Limited combat experience, corruption, and military integration persist while grey zone activities in the South China Sea continue.
- The Russian frigate Admiral Golovko, armed with hypersonic missiles, has completed its passage through the English Channel on Tuesday November 11 after conducting counterterrorism drills and is now continuing its mission in the Atlantic Ocean.
- Poland’s Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski highlighted Warsaw’s defense spending, ties with Washington, and strong migration stance as key factors as Poland aims to become Europe’s leader in defense to fill a security gap.
Energy
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated on November 8 that the EU may replace Russian liquified natural gas with imports from the United States which could lower energy prices.
- China's solar, battery, and electric vehicle companies’ global production domination make clean technologies affordable and can accelerate the shift to renewable power particularly in the Global South but draw criticism for undermining other states supply chains.
- Cuba’s electricity grid shut down after Hurricane Rafael struck, with over 70,000 evacuated. The island has faced frequent blackouts, including a near-total power loss in October due to engineering failures and fuel shortages at aging oil plants.
Manufacturing
- India aims to lead in semiconductors by capitalizing on US-China tensions and attracting foreign investment. Insufficient infrastructure, reliance on imports, and uncertainty about policy continuity and long-term sustainability present challenges.
- Germany's high energy costs are driving manufacturers out, complicated by the looming snap election. Meanwhile the defense industry, Rheinmetall, and Hensoldt have seen massive growth in orders and sales.
- A bankruptcy wave threatens China’s steel companies, with overcapacity and price dumping as causes of the global steel crisis. The sector is under pressure and weak profits may slow the adoption of low-carbon steelmaking technology requiring significant investment.
Supply Lines
- Donald Trump's threats of 200% tariffs on Chinese imports could intensify the trade war and further weaken global oil demand as oil prices remain weak and OPEC+ restrictions limit production growth.
- Kazakhstan seeks to establish itself as a key transit hub between East and West through the "Middle Corridor," spanning Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, and the Caucasus—preferred route in the West to reduce dependence on Russian paths and bypass Red Sea instability.
- Russia's monthly fossil fuel export revenues dropped 4% in October. Seaborne crude oil exports rose 10% as France was the largest European importer of Russian fossil fuels, buying liquified natural gas worth EUR 233 million.
Additional
- Climate change's projected physical risk impact on GDP could quadruple by 2050 with economic losses potentially reaching 30% if temperatures rise by 3°C. The UN Environment Program warns the world is on track for a 3.1°C increase above pre-industrial levels.
- Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia seek strategic autonomy through multi-vectored foreign policies and transactional approaches to gain economic and geopolitical benefits, with Armenia and Azerbaijan nearing a peace agreement that could reduce external intervention.
- The Nigerian Army confirmed that a new jihadist group called 'Lukarawas' has emerged in Kebbi and Sokoto states. This group reportedly originated in Niger and has gained a foothold in Nigeria, exploiting weakened security ties after Niger’s 2023 coup.
Insight of the Week:
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