Our weekly newsletter gives a brief overview of the latest developments in geopolitics, security and defense, energy, manufacturing, and supply lines. Striving to provide our clients with enhanced decision-making capability, it includes in-depth articles as well as insights pertaining to growth projections, conflicts, and raw materials, etcetera.
Total Defense and National Security
Please see the end of the newsletter for detailed information on our initiatives to assist enterprises in total defense and national security.
Latest
- Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu swore to return all Gaza hostages on the anniversary of Hamas's attack on October 7. Israel expanded its ground operations in Lebanon and Gaza, while Hezbollah fired 190 rockets in Israel. The Israeli Military killed Hezbollah commander Suhail Hussein Husseini in Beirut strike.
- Israel and Iran have exchanged threats of retaliation attacks after Tehran fired missiles at Israel on October 1.
- The Netherlands sent its first batch of F-16 jets, now operating in Ukrainian airspace. Ukraine downed at least two Russian Kinzhal missiles and set Crimea's largest oil depot on fire on October 7 as Russia damaged a grain vessel on October 6.
- Presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a tight fight over seven key states. Harris refused to call Benjamin Netanyahu a close ally on Monday, signaling continuity in Biden's foreign policy and Trump vowed the closest ever US-Israel ties if elected.
Security and defense
- ASEAN’s Laos summit is expected to be plagued by internal rifts. Talks will cover Cambodia’s withdrawal from the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area, Myanmar, the South China Sea, and the Middle East.
- Russia's growing dependency may grant China access to its territories and advance China's 'Polar Silk Road' ambitions as a "near Arctic" state as China's Coast Guard joined its first patrol in the Arctic.
- Gulf Arab states reassured Iran of their neutrality in the Iran-Israel conflict during the Asian Dialogue Group summit in Doha.
Energy
- Multilateral lenders, funds, and governments have earmarked $6.1 billion for renewable investments in Latin America. The region's wealth of renewable energy resources and potential as a clean hydrogen producer is highlighted by 65 ongoing projects, led by Brazil, Chile, and Colombia.
- China supplies 60% of its natural gas demands with domestic supply after restructuring its market amid energy transition.
- Concerns grow that Israel may target Iranian oil infrastructure, keeping Brent crude prices at close to $80 a barrel, though supplies remain largely unaffected by the Middle East crises.
Manufacturing
- The Anglo-Australian mining giant, Rio Tinto, has offered to buy American Arcadium Lithium, valued at over $3bn.
- Ghana struggles to manage illegal artisanal gold mining resulting in economic losses and environmental damage.
- Russia exported 1,860 tons of enriched uranium worth $2.7 billion in 2023. The US is the top buyer with 45%, followed by France and China at 16%.
Supply Lines
- The world food price index rose 3.1% in September driven by cereals, meat, vegetable oils, sugar, and dairy. Climate change and trade protectionism will likely impact crop yields and increase food prices.
- Mexico’s constitutional reforms and regulatory environment may cause decreased investor confidence, currency volatility, and trade disputes in the electricity and oil sectors and trigger nearshoring.
- The EU has imposed tariffs up to 45% on Chinese electric vehicles as Beijing's response is increasingly examined.
Additional
- Pyongyang’s cyber forces will likely stay ahead of the West and increase its attacks targeting South Korean entities and global cryptocurrency exchanges to fund its nuclear program.
- 265,000 vaccination doses against mpox are given primarily to Congo's at-risk adults and frontline workers. Three million doses are expected for children as most infections and deaths occur in those under 15.
- Tunisia's presidential election was neither free nor fair, with less than 28% turnout. Incumbent autocratic Kais Saied consolidated his power running virtually unopposed and won with 90,7% of the votes, according to official sources.
Total Defense and National Security
Monitor and adapt to the new reality. In the wake of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Western world is gearing up to fortify its military and civil defense, poised to counteract escalating Russian aggression. Simultaneously, the looming risk of an extended conflict in Europe and beyond has become a stark reality. Since Russia's full-scale invasion, Consilio has supported Swedish companies with:
- Close Monitoring of the Ukraine War and Regional Effects, tailored analyses of how an extended conflict could affect a company.
- Geopolitical Scenario Analysis, how the war might affect the company's global operations.
- Input to Strategy and Business Development, inputs for strategy to manage a more uncertain world and also seize the opportunities when the West needs to fortify its military and civil defense.
Insight of the Week:
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