Our weekly newsletter gives a brief overview of the latest developments in geopolitics, security and defense, energy, manufacturing, and supply lines. Striving to provide our clients with enhanced decision-making capability, it includes in-depth articles as well as insights pertaining to growth projections, conflicts, and raw materials, etcetera.
Total Defense and National Security
Please see the end of the newsletter for detailed information on our initiatives to assist enterprises in total defense and national security.
Latest
- The Israeli chief of staff stated that operations against Hezbollah will be intensified following extensive strikes resulting in 558 fatalities in Lebanon and 50 children's deaths during the past 24 hours. Given that an additional number of around 600 people have died amid battles in Lebanon during the past year, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah can now be classified as a war.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to present a "victory plan" to US President Joe Biden at the White House on September 26, which states that Ukraine will not cede any territory and will seek an invitation to join NATO.
- The head of Ukrainian Presidential Office Andriy Yermak emphasized the need for battlefield advantage to force Moscow to end the war. President Zelensky stated that tens of thousands of lives will be lost, including children, if Ukraine is prohibited from using Western long-range strikes into Russia.
- New polls show that Donald Trump leads over Kamala Harris in Arizona with narrow races in Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris leads in Pennsylvania. Despite Harris’s strong debate performance on September 10, the national race remains one of the closest contests in history.
Security and Defense
- The annual meeting of the Quad was hosted by US President Joe Biden with Asia-Pacific partners Australia, India, and Japan on September 21. Plans to place observers on each other's coastguard vessels to enhance interoperability were initiated, not explicitly addressing aggressive Chinese maritime behavior.
- The BRICS states will convene for their annual summit in Kazan, Russia, in late October, marking a triumph for President Vladimir Putin. The member states represent 35.6% of global GDP in purchasing power parity, surpassing the G-7's 30.3%.
- Japanese fighter jets fired flares at a Russian aircraft that entered its airspace, prompting Defense Minister Kihara Minoru to lodge a strong protest to the Kremlin. Japanese officials are increasingly concerned about the growing bond between Russia and China, and Minoru suggested that the violation could be related to an upcoming joint military exercise.
Energy
- China has advanced several nuclear power projects as part of its push for innovative technology, decreasing its reliance on fossil fuels. Despite having 56 reactors in operation and 30 under construction, nuclear power still provides only 5% of China's electricity, far below France's 65% and the US's 18%.
- India's coal consumption continues to rise, providing 75% of its electricity in 2023 and surpassing Europe and North America's combined usage. While expanding renewable energy, India plans to retain coal and aims for 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel power by 2030, with a goal of net-zero emissions by 2070.
- The Federal Reserve's half-point rate cut fueled concerns about the US economy, pushing brent crude down. News of the US buying 6 million barrels to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve failed to boost oil prices.
Manufacturing
- The Chilean Copper Corporation forecasts output will rise to 5.5 million tons this year, reaching 6.4 million tons by 2027 and 6.9 million tons by 2030. High copper prices indicate that the sector will play a crucial role in the economy, fueled by increasing investments in the coming years.
- Two of the world's largest chip manufacturers, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) and South Korea's Samsung Electronics, have begun negotiations for potential major investments in semiconductor factories in the United Arab Emirates. With subsidies from Abu Dhabi's Mubadala fund, a factory on the scale of the company’s largest in Taiwan is planned, but technical challenges remain.
- Business sentiment in Germany declined for the fourth straight month in September, with manufacturing sentiment hitting its lowest level since June 2020. Europe's largest economy may decrease for the second consecutive quarter, indicating a potential recession.
Supply Lines
- US sanctions have forced Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) company Novatek to halt major Arctic projects. The company can still profit by exporting chemical compound urea to India and Brazil while boosting LNG exports to China and India.
- Nigeria's state-owned energy firm has started shipping gasoline from Aliko Dangote’s refinery, helping reduce the country's reliance on imported fuel. The Nigerian National Petroleum Co. will supply crude to the refinery and has secured exclusive distribution rights for the gasoline which may result in higher local fuel prices.
- The US and its allies aim to challenge China’s dominance in rare earth minerals through new mines and processing plants. However, a price slump since 2022 is jeopardizing the viability of these projects, increasing doubts about their ability to compete with government-backed Chinese firms.
Additional
- Many countries rely on Chinese factories for essential items like face masks, critical medicine ingredients and medical device parts. In the US, concerns about national security have been raised over Chinese telecommunications and electrical equipment, viewed by some as potential threats to American infrastructure.
- President Putin approved a strategic partnership agreement with Iran, published on September 22. The war in Ukraine, sanctions, and a shared goal to challenge US-led regional security have strengthened ties between Moscow and Tehran.
- EU candidate country Georgia's parliamentary election is scheduled for October 26. Despite the ruling Georgian Dream party's stated goal of joining the EU and NATO, strengthened ties with Russia strain relations with the West. The EU has warned of possible visa-free suspension if upcoming elections are not free and fair.
Total Defense and National Security
Monitor and adapt to the new reality. In the wake of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Western world is gearing up to fortify its military and civil defense, poised to counteract escalating Russian aggression. Simultaneously, the looming risk of an extended conflict in Europe and beyond has become a stark reality. Since Russia's full-scale invasion, Consilio has supported Swedish companies with:
- Close Monitoring of the Ukraine War and Regional Effects, tailored analyses of how an extended conflict could affect a company.
- Geopolitical Scenario Analysis, how the war might affect the company's global operations.
- Input to Strategy and Business Development, inputs for strategy to manage a more uncertain world and also seize the opportunities when the West needs to fortify its military and civil defense.
Do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions.
