Newsletter: Dairy Market 2025 – Hoping for political action? Market Analysis from 24 January 2025

Cheese, milk fat, and whey are experiencing slight increases, while protein concentrates, and skimmed milk powder are also seeing modest gains. The GDT on 21 January 2025 has risen by 1.4%, driven by whole milk powder, butter, and Cheddar, although milk fat, mozzarella, and lactose have seen slight declines.

Market Development: Retrospective and Outlook

The dairy market currently appears stable; the price reductions from December have largely been overcome and we are moving back to November levels. However, the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Germany brings uncertainty. There is consensus that a solution must be found – the details, however, remain unclear. Urgent political action is needed, but confidence in a prompt response is limited. Initial price reductions for February have already been announced, and without swift solutions, the downward spiral could commence rapidly.

Market Situation in Switzerland

In Switzerland, the market situation remains tense. Exports in December and January have been unsatisfactory, and uncertainties in Europe are putting additional pressure on the export-oriented sector. Switzerland will have to confront the international challenges. Through strategic and collaborative action, greater damages can be averted, and we hope for the rationality of farmer cooperatives.

Q1 2025 – Waiting for Political Action?

Rapid political action is crucial. Otherwise, market participants may have to respond to future turbulence unprepared. In the worst-case scenario, this could lead to milk becoming unprocessable and consequently worthless.

Outlook for Q1 and Q2 2025

?- Q1 2025:

Prices are expected to rise if the government acts swiftly.

?- Q2 2025:

Current stock levels are low enough that we do not anticipate falling prices for Q2, provided that the government responds quickly.

?

Additionally, the recently announced trade policy measures by the USA, which could entail potential tariffs, should be taken into account as they may cause market instability and sudden price fluctuations.

It is advisable to continue preparing for volatile market conditions.

We will be present at the following trade fairs:

-??????? Sirha, Lyon, 23–27 January 2025, We are not abel to attend, sorry.

-??????? Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025, we will have a stand for Cheespro Walo

-??????? PLMA, Amsterdam, 20 & 21 May 2025,

-??????? International Cheese Awards 2025

-??????? Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese

-??????? Le Mondial du Fromage et Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 septembre 2025, We will have a stand.

-??????? Anuga, K?ln 4.10 – 8.10.2025, with our Partner Dicke Food

-??????? Winter Fancy Food, San Diego, 11 – 13 January 2026 with our partner World's Best Cheese.

-??????? Marca, Bologna, 14 – 15 January 2026, I will visit the show

?Stay informed and enjoy the exquisite Swiss flower meadow cheese with raw milk! Tastes good, is healthy and calming.

Best wishes, Affineur Walo