Newsletter 1.5 - Bonus insight on Finland and NATO

The below is my posting from 03rd April in relation to the Finnish ascendance to NATO, and probable thought points. I have added this on as a bonus thought piece to my first newsletter article, as it is pertinent.

My thoughts as of 03rd April 2023, posted as per my LinkedIn account        

All change in?#Finland?both domestically and geopolitically.

Here are some thought points on the ascension to?#NATO?tomorrow:

- Increased tensions between?#Russia?and NATO: Finland's membership in NATO will certainly heighten tensions between Russia and the alliance, as the Kremlin has already warned of "consequences" if Nordic states join. This will most likely lead to increased military activity along their shared border, and a more aggressive posture by Russia.

-?#Military?build-up in the region: Russia will perceive its north-western flank as more vulnerable, particularly the strategically important Kola Peninsula, which hosts Russia's Northern Fleet. In response to Finland's NATO membership, Russian military planners will likely build up forces in the area, and plan long-range precision strikes against targets in Finland and Sweden.

- Countermeasures by NATO: To counter Moscow's attempts to undermine their position in the Nordic-Baltic-Arctic region, NATO allies will need to respond to Russia's Gray-zone tactics and more aggressive?#nuclear?posturing. This could include increased military co-operation among NATO members, joint military exercises, and bolstering defence capabilities in the region.

- Diplomatic fallout: Finland's NATO membership will strain diplomatic relations with Russia. Russia will attempt to isolate Finland politically and economically through measures such as sanctions or reduced cooperation in various international forums that Russia still has favour in (Remember that the sanctions on Russia have had limited effect, and that allies globally are still trading with Russia et al).

- Cyber warfare and disinformation campaigns: Russia may also target Finland and other NATO countries with cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to undermine their political stability and public support for the alliance.

- Impact on Sweden's NATO membership: Finland's accession to NATO may have implications for Sweden's application. Russia reacting strongly to Finland's membership with it's allies in NATO, will cause further complications for Sweden's membership.

- Domestic political repercussions in Russia: The Russian administration will use Finland's NATO membership as a rallying point for domestic political purposes, promoting a narrative of encirclement and Western aggression to consolidate power and justify increased military movements.

In summary, Finland's NATO membership tomorrow (Tuesday 04th?April 2023) is likely to result in increased tensions between Russia and the alliance, military build-up in the region, countermeasures by NATO, diplomatic fallout, cyber warfare and disinformation campaigns, impact on Sweden's NATO membership, and domestic political repercussions in Russia.?

The response from the Russian administration will be multifaceted and aimed at both countering the perceived threat, and leveraging the situation for domestic and allied political and military purposes.

Post-acendence - 05th April 2023        

*The above was my thoughts as of the 03rd and posted via my LinkedIn account. As predicted, a story published by Reuters on 05th (As posted below) gives credence to my initial thoughts.