Newsletter 1.5 - Bonus insight on Finland and NATO
Mark Nuttall
Executive Advisor & Strategic Deal Facilitator | Capital Raises | MENA Regional Head - Mitkat | Chair & Entrepreneur | Governance, Risk, Security, AML & ESG | Keynote Speaker & Author | APAC, Europe, LAC & MENA
The below is my posting from 03rd April in relation to the Finnish ascendance to NATO, and probable thought points. I have added this on as a bonus thought piece to my first newsletter article, as it is pertinent.
My thoughts as of 03rd April 2023, posted as per my LinkedIn account
All change in?#Finland?both domestically and geopolitically.
Here are some thought points on the ascension to?#NATO?tomorrow:
- Increased tensions between?#Russia?and NATO: Finland's membership in NATO will certainly heighten tensions between Russia and the alliance, as the Kremlin has already warned of "consequences" if Nordic states join. This will most likely lead to increased military activity
-?#Military?build-up in the region: Russia will perceive its north-western flank as more vulnerable, particularly the strategically important Kola Peninsula, which hosts Russia's Northern Fleet. In response to Finland's NATO membership, Russian military planners will likely build up forces in the area, and plan long-range precision strikes against targets in Finland and Sweden.
- Countermeasures by NATO: To counter Moscow's attempts to undermine their position in the Nordic-Baltic-Arctic region, NATO allies will need to respond to Russia's Gray-zone tactics and more aggressive?#nuclear?posturing. This could include increased military co-operation among NATO members, joint military exercises
- Diplomatic fallout: Finland's NATO membership will strain diplomatic relations
- Cyber warfare and disinformation campaigns
- Impact on Sweden's NATO membership: Finland's accession to NATO may have implications for Sweden's application. Russia reacting strongly to Finland's membership with it's allies in NATO, will cause further complications for Sweden's membership.
- Domestic political repercussions
In summary, Finland's NATO membership tomorrow (Tuesday 04th?April 2023) is likely to result in increased tensions between Russia and the alliance, military build-up in the region, countermeasures by NATO, diplomatic fallout, cyber warfare and disinformation campaigns, impact on Sweden's NATO membership, and domestic political repercussions in Russia.?
The response from the Russian administration will be multifaceted and aimed at both countering the perceived threat, and leveraging the situation for domestic and allied political and military purposes.
Post-acendence - 05th April 2023
*The above was my thoughts as of the 03rd and posted via my LinkedIn account. As predicted, a story published by Reuters on 05th (As posted below) gives credence to my initial thoughts.
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1 年The decision by Finland to join NATO will have significant implications for its national security and defense policy. In my view one of the most important aspects of this decision is the need for Finland to step up its intelligence gathering and sharing.