News and weather, not BIG DATA, are the best predictors of advertising results…

I was recently surprised dear reader, at what appears to be a generational issue around predicting results to advertising, particularly direct response advertising. I’ll explain:

On 8 September 2022 a once-in-a-lifetime event occurred that was documented for days in the media. It was the death of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.

The coverage was 24/7 across all media channels – analogue and digital. The first thing most experienced marketers did on the morning of the 8th was to cancel or postpone all their advertising. The reason was simple – people would be interested in the news coverage, not the advertisements surrounding it.

The fact is simple – major news always trumps advertising response. So if there is a major news event, you should immediately change your advertising bookings. Unfortunately if you had a direct or unaddressed mail campaign underway from the 6th to the 20th September and it was already in the postal system, you couldn’t stop the delivery, so your marketing investment was most likely wasted.

Though many brands tried to capitalise on the event with condolence advertising, I’d suggest their ads were mostly ignored – except by the advertising industry.

This century’s marketers had no clue

I ran a quick poll with colleagues and while not statistically significant, almost 20 marketers, it was divided down the middle. Those who had worked in direct marketing for more than 25 years knew instinctively to switch off their advertising. Those who started marketing this century didn’t have a clue about the effects of news and had kept advertising. Though a couple did admit to poor results.

Include weather in your media plan

It’s the same with the weather. Ask any fast food brand or restaurant for example about the effects of weather on results. Or ask a direct marketer and they’ll tell you it is often the strongest indicator of success or failure of direct response advertising. I know of some brands that now incorporate weather forecasts into their media planning, as it is so powerful.

A direct mail campaign for example, can struggle in really wet weather, for the simple fact water gets into the letterbox and damages the mail. I’ve worked on a number of DRTV campaigns and the weather played a major role in response rates. For example, there are sports programmes on the free-to-air networks on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Same shows, just different days covering different match results.

If you run a DRTV commercial in the sports show on a Summer Saturday in Sydney, you’ll most likely waste your money. That’s because most of Sydney is at the beach, in the pool or a park having a BBQ. But after the hot weather there is usually a southerly change bringing thunder storms, so Sunday’s weather is cooler and often wet. Run the same DRTV commercial in the Sunday sports show and the phones will ring off the hook.

The reason is simple – people who are watching the sports show are not watching the programme, they are looking at the electronic furniture to fill in time, because they cannot go outside. It’s why you see so much DRTV in off-peak time, because you won’t get a response during prime time, as the viewers are watching the programme with intent.

Like a few hundred million of my closest friends, I’m preparing to watch the FIFA World Cup, starting this weekend. I wonder what we’ll all be doing during the ad breaks?