Are news outlets missing the BIG PICTURE on oil prices?

News outlets are referencing that oil has hit a 6 year high. They attribute the high price to OPEC, but miss the BIG PICTURE:?

1. THE DOLLAR.

a. The last time oil was around $77 was Nov, 2014. The DOLLAR was WEAKER in Nov 2014 (the dollar index (measures the strength of the dollar) was around 87 in Nov 2014, today the dollar index is around 92).

We’re hitting HIGH oil prices but the dollar is stronger??? That is BULLISH.

????????????????i.?????In 2014, the dollar was strengthening & by the end of 2014 oil prices had crashed.

??????????????ii.?????Fast forward to today. The money supply in 2020 exploded which weakened the dollar. Then continued inflation (thanks Fed reserve) and government spending (thanks big gov) continue to damage the dollar. The dollar is NOT strengthening (although stronger at the moment than Nov 2014). If the dollar weakens significantly/crashes, oil prices will go much HIGHER.

2. “The cure for high prices are high prices.”

a. This saying refers to high prices attracting producers (in this case, USA shale producers) to swoop in and make bank selling oil. Thus supply increases and prices decrease. This expectation is FLAWED because:

???????????????i.?????The Fed says “inflation is transitory” (i.e. high prices are temporary (I disagree, would be happy to be wrong)). What bank is going to invest in shale if they’re being told (and believing) that high oil prices are temporary??

???????????????ii.?????Several banks LOST MONEY when oil crashed in 2014. Investors could be hesitant this time!

???????????????iii.?????Shale producers costs are RISING. Do rising costs make it EASIER or HARDER to run/start a business?? (the answer is HARDER)??

??????????????iv.?????Environmental concerns. The current administration is not pro-shale, or pro-oil. They will not make it easy for shale producers to do business via regulation, tax, etc.

Conclusion:

Sure, OPEC+ has a strong influence, but if given the chance (lack of gov & central bank interference) the USA & Canada would eat OPEC’s lunch.?