News from lockdown -6

After about a generation, politicians have finally started to recognise the importance of science. So we hear statements like ‘we are following the science’ all the time. So now that they know that science is important then next they need to learn what science actually is. They need to distinguish between scientific facts based upon evidence and opinions based upon nothing much at all. There is far too much "opinion presented as science” spouted by people who should know better.

As an example everybody seems to be talking about the R rate as if they are saying something meaningful. The R rate is not a number to be guessed at and cannot be changed at will. It is a term invented by epidemiologists in order to make their equations work. And it is an output measure rather then an input measure. Put simply, it is the relationship between the number of new infections and the number of people currently at the infectious stage of having the virus. This needs information based on measurement and if we dont measure either of these then how can we possibly know what the R rate actually is. Aa all we know is the number of people who are tested who are actually positive then all this can be is a blind guess. All we can say with any certainty is that it is probably different (and quite likely lower) than the figures being stated so authoritatively by people who should know better.

When will we take science seriously?