The news briefing for Security & Safety Sectors
The Heligan Strategic Insights team have rounded up the main subjects of news reports over the last month into a bite sized summary for you. All the news and data sources are available upon request should you like to dig a little deeper.
Submarines and Grey Zone Warfare
Grey zone warfare, activities carried out below the threshold of full-scale conflict, continue to form the backbone of China and Russia’s foreign policy agendas. Merchant vessels registered to the two countries have been implicated in a number of malign marine activities in late 2024, including accusations of covert submarine infrastructure mapping in the Irish Sea and the deliberate damaging of undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea. Such activities are not just confined to the seas of Northern Europe, with a Chinese-linked ship accused of damaging submarine cables off the coast of Taiwan in early January 2025.
Frustratingly for the victims, the deniable nature of grey zone warfare makes it hard to levy absolute responsibility onto any one nation state, making it extremely difficult to hold our adversaries to account. Reacting to these activities is also made harder by complications surrounding jurisdiction on the high seas. Combating grey zone tactics is important because such deliberate actions disrupt the global economy and societal cohesion. Therefore, there is a real need to establish a coordinated approach to tackling these threats, which has to start with quick and decisive responses – calling out adversaries' involvement.
As a consequence, this month the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a military partnership of ten Northern European countries, established ‘Nordic Warden.’ Nordic Warden, an AI-powered solution, aims to track Russia’s shadow fleet, an armada of aging Russian-linked oil tankers used by the Kremlin primarily to evade oil sanctions, which has been attributed to a number of disruptive maritime instances.
It is also important to remember that grey zone tactics do not just manifest in the maritime sphere but also encapsulate activities such as malicious cyber activity for which China has been recently accused of perpetrating in the Salt Typhoon cyber espionage campaign against US telco’s. Furthermore, with Russian conventional military forces tired, depleted and tied up in its illegal conflict with Ukraine, and China unwilling to risk direct confrontation with the West,
Heligan Group insight is that we are likely to see increased instances of grey zone warfare as the two nations jostle with the West for influence and soft power.
Chinese Spy Craft
The Salt Typhoon hack of at least eight US telecommunication operators, saw Chinese-backed hacking groups gain access to communications of senior individuals within the US government, including some with intimate connections to the Trump and Harris presidential campaigns. Coming to light last month, it signals a clear intent from the Chinese government to conduct information collection and espionage activities against its adversaries, a key component of Chinese foreign policy strategy. The extent of the spying campaign may never be truly understood, but it is thought that the network breach was active for a number of years and may well be active elsewhere in the world.
The remedy is expected to cost billions of dollars, which will see telecommunication operators conduct a complete overhaul and refit of their existing networks to root out the intruders. Comprising of individuals from government, intelligence, policing and the military.
The Heligan Strategic Insights team assesses that information collection will remain a key tactic of Chinese spy craft, with a proliferation in the coming years of similar grey zone activities against the West and its allies. As worrying as this sounds, it does however provide opportunities for Western-aligned SMEs operating in the cyber security space to capitalise on the growing demand for defensive cyber solutions, driven by the current state and non-state actor threats but also increasing legislation required by governments around the world.
Trump Office Picks
Just days away from taking the Oval Office, President-elect Donald Trump has been busy this month courting the World’s attention with inflammatory suggestions that the US, could take the autonomous region of Greenland by force from Denmark.
He has also raised eyebrows with his choices of cabinet and staff nominations with the likes of multi-billionaire Elon Musk (Head of Department of Government Efficiency), Kash Patel (FBI Director) and Tulsi Gabbard (National Intelligence Director) all in the running to take key positions in his new administration.
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Specifically, the selections of Kash Patel and Tulsi Gabbard are set to have far-ranging implications to the national security sector both at home and abroad. Earmarked to lead the US’ domestic intelligence and security service, the FBI, Kash Patel has been a virulent critic of the very organisation is he due to take up the reigns to. Add to this his penchant for a conspiracy theory, believing that a ‘deep state’ within the US government has been actively working against Trump’s attempts to regain the presidency, and that the Covid-19 pandemic originated from a laboratory in Wuhan, China.
Tulsi Gabbard on the other hand has in the past contradicted the US’ own intelligence agencies on their assessment of the use of chemical weapons by deposed Syrian president Bashar Al Assad. She has also called for Ukraine to be a “neutral country” in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, opposing the stance of the US government and wider Western society.
Trump’s choices reflect a desire to shake up US federal agencies and reward the loyalty of those that supported him during his campaign.
These appointments, if confirmed by the Senate, are likely to bring turbulence to the intelligence and national security sectors in which Heligan Group operates. The characters chosen to lead key offices, outwardly harbour contempt for the ‘establishment,’ and this stance may impact their willingness to share technology and intelligence across borders. This could negatively affect the ability of the USA's allies to counter threats and potentially impact development and growth of SME’s operating in the field, particularly those outside of the US.
Space
Innovation within the space industry continues to heat up, with notable advances in the use of re-suable rockets achieved by SpaceX and developments in space debris collection, which saw Astroscale conduct the closest ever approach by a commercial operator to space junk.
All of this comes in the context of a wider space race to put humans back on the moon, with the US targeting mid-2027 and the Chinese aiming for 2030. Traditionally investment in the space sector, particularly in the UK, has been hindered by high financial barriers to entry and perceptions of a limited workforce and lack of profitability, as a result of a nascent sector.
However, the outlook is promising, with a highly supportive UK government and substantial advances in technology, which has seen more and more VC and PE houses turning to investing in these frontier technologies. M&A activity across the sector has rocketed over the past decade from only five transactions in 2013 to twenty-seven in 2023.?
Heligan Group therefore firmly believes the sector is now primed to flourish over the next few years, particularly as competition between East and West comes to a head in the race to put humans back on the moon. Key drivers of M&A activity will be increasing government funding, the falling cost of launches and the adoption of new technologies, such as satellite-based quantum key distribution technology.?
Post Conflict Ukraine
Our latest Spotlight gives some in-depth analysis on the likely post-conflict challenges Ukraine, Russia and the West will face at the point in time when battlefield operations cease, and the rebuilding of a war-torn country commences.