News Alert: The Labor Market Continues its Strong Streak

July 8, 2022

Despite some news reports that the U.S. economy may already be in a recession due to the possibility of two consecutive negative quarters of GDP growth, the labor market continues to plow forward, supporting aggregate income and limiting the havoc wrought on spending by high inflation.?

The U.S. economy added 372,000 jobs in June, extending a streak of strong gains?despite signs of slowing economic growth. Employers hired across industries, with government the only major category to shed jobs.?The unemployment rate, at 3.6%, was near the half-century low reached before the pandemic hit in spring 2020.?

Inflation remains paramount for the Fed, but the jobs market is also an important piece of the puzzle to the path ahead for policy as growth concerns mount. Today's report indicates that the jobs market remains extraordinarily strong. While the size of the FOMC's next move hangs primarily on June’s CPI report, the June jobs report bolsters the case for another 75 bps hike at the July 27 meeting.??