Are New Yorkers desperate?

Read any news headline and you'll read that New Yorkers are leaving in droves. From the street it seems quiet, and it is. The regular hustle and bustle pretty much went away around March 15th. But that doesn't mean people are desperate to get out.

I've been studying the NYC real estate market and the stats. After we "opened" for Phase 2 we quickly shot up in listing inventory. The headlines read - "New Yorkers flee the city," but the reality is that many of those listings were those that literally could not get listed during the lockdown because, even though real estate agents were deemed essential, most condo and co-ops we simply not letting anyone but owners in the building. So therein lies the first issue; no access, no listings. Open up, and we soon hit over 8000 listings. Each day anywhere from 25-100 listings would hit, and along with it, an equal or greater number of price reductions.

But are New Yorkers desperate? Well, right now it's hard to say. We don't have many closed stats to see if Covid impacted the prices, but word on the street from some of the top NYC agents is that most sellers are not desperate. They have worked in some kind of discount for Covid, but it seems buyers are still expecting the prices to come down even more. And this is the disconnect. Many people still want to stay in New York. They want to "right-size," which means they will get more space or get less space, depending on their needs. Yes, many New Yorkers have left the city, but they do that anyway. Lots of them have second homes, and especially during August, they escape the city for cooler weather!

So where does that leave us? If you're considering selling, listings that are priced right will always sell! If you have no interest and no showings then well, hate to break it to you, but your home likely wouldn't sell even during the best of times. Buyers are hovering. They are looking for a deal, and they will buy when they find one. Buyers, don't expect fire sales. Yes, some sellers really need to sell, but other are simply testing. I personally know of two apartments, one of which was actually my old apartment, which is priced at almost $50K more than what she bought it for 2 years ago! Yes, the seller did a bit of work to the unit, but her maintenance also went up nearly $200 since I owned it. This, to me, is an example of a wishful buyer. (I'm so thankful I sold when I did!!)

What comps should you be looking it? Just like in any shifting market, closed sales don't always tell the full story, especially now since our closed sales reflect the pre-covid era. It's best to look at ACTIVE and IN CONTRACT listings, as well as those that didn't sell, or those that expired. This is the same thing we were telling buyers during the shifting market in 2009 and 2016 after we hit the peak.

Check out these charts for some stats and numbers courtesy of UrbanDigs.

You know those people who say "I wish I would have bought back when...."? Well, this is one of those times they may look back on. Not only are there fewer buyers, but interest rates are so incredibly row that the average buyer has over $32K in purchase power because of the rates. Sleep on that... then call me :)