The New York race that could tip the House

Though Mondaire Jones won a House seat two years ago, his race against Representative Mike Lawler in New York’s Seventeenth District is one of the most competitive races this cycle—and it could prove to be a decisive one. To take back control of the House, Democrats will need to pick up four seats from Republicans. The major issues at play in the New York race—abortion, immigration, the high cost of living—echo the concerns of voters across the country. If Democrats do pick up those seats and secure the Senate, they could reshape the overall power balance of Congress.?

Today’s newsletter brings you stories about the 2024 congressional races:

• “The New York Race That Could Tip the House ,” by Russell Berman. The state is home to some of the country’s most vulnerable Republicans, but one key district is proving tough for Democrats to flip.
• “Five House Races to Watch ,” by Lora Kelley. Democrats face a plausible—but tight—path to regaining control of the House.
• “Seven Senate Races to Watch ,” by Lora Kelley. Democrats are struggling to hold on to key seats—and their majority—in states across the country. (From September 2024)
• “Arizona’s Election Tipping Point ,” by John Hendrickson. Kari Lake has made denialism and bombast her brand.
• “A Trump Loyalist on the Brink ,” by Russell Berman. Representative Scott Perry of Pennsylvania is the nation’s most vulnerable MAGA Republican.

—? Stephanie Bai, associate editor