New Year’s Resolutions

The Chinese are famous for the quip--“May You Live in Interesting Times.”??

This translation is from the Chinese suggesting more of a curse than a blessing.? A closer inspection of this famous trope is best translated, “You may be entering times of trouble rather than an era of blessing, so watch out!"

Such may be our lot as we enter 2025. But let's give the day its due.

In the spirit of irony, and instead of embracing new resolutions, let's explore some totems we may wish to dispel entirely this coming year.? Let’s see if we can jettison some shibboleths that are crimping our thinking, and curbing our growth as heirs of a legacy we claim as intelligent.?? Early in this new year, let’s explore some idols we need to melt down and repurpose.? Many come to mind.

The Failure of Democracy

Just after the new year, and recovering from the revelry of the holiday season, I met with a friend and former student at a favorite watering hole in my city of Thessaloniki, Greece.? He, being a young Greek professional and preternaturally politically Left-of Me, and knowing I was from the USA, peppered me with questions about impending events in the USA.? Not surprisingly, Donald Trump was at the top of his list.?

I brushed him off as best I could, insisting that Trump was a figurehead, not a real politician, and that he represents someone from the outside, challenging the status quo among the so-called professional political class.? ?I suggested to my friend he needed to adjust his thinking in the favor of neutrality, and treat the new President like the new guy on the block, keen to challenge conventions.

But one word kept echoing from his mouth, and it drove me crazy—the word was Democracy. After pointing out that the US Constitution makes no mention of Democracy (only Republic), I explained that our politicians love to throw this word into their dialogue, like so much empty air. ?

Greeks have a good reason to be proud of this word; I began our conversation pointing out that even a Greek hero like Socrates equivocated about its value and role in society, suggesting that the masses were too infantile to understand its relevance, and leaders would use the term as a way to gaslight the populace. ?Socrates was no flag waver for Democracy, considering it a dangerous policy when leaders are not up to the task, and The People mistakenly assume they are.

I had to stop my friend from using the word several times during our conversation, to the point that we raised our voices and our barman started staring at us, worried that we were on a dangerous trajectory.?? As an American, I put my foot down and berated him more than once for using the term, telling him, “Democracy doesn’t exist--it's a distraction.”?

And, in fact, 2024 has shown us that Democracy is more of a cudgel to score winning points in political arguments, than a reliable lighthouse to guide our voting public.? Were he alive today, Socrates would agree, and probably offer to drink the hemlock again were someone to use this word in his presence.

So let’s drop the ruse that we care about Democracy.? Nobody does, and nobody truly stands behind this greased pig of a political contrivance. Democracy has become a way to get our way in a political argument. This election has given us freedom FROM this misused term we use so lightly.

It's About Competence, Stupid

We are witnessing a wholesale shift in priorities by governments around the world, particularly in the USA. Dying on the vine are the saccharine pleasantries of political leadership, particularly in Europe where most officials of the State are appointed by 'Eurocrats,' un-elected by the people.

In the US, however, the differences are stark and telling. Government responses to natural disasters are separating the sheep from the goats, in a big way. From fires in California to hurricanes up and down the East Coast of North America, and responses to COVID, people can see the new government taking charge and dismantling the incompetence and corruption of the previous administration. Citizens are paying attention, and the alternative media is sounding alarms that mainstream press has ignored for years. Small wonder the pendulum is swinging swiftly back to an era of competence, over misplaced feelings and political hot air. We expect this trend to accelerate in 2025, driving political opponents of Mr. Trump crazy with rage.

Moral Superiority and Sexual Purity

Following the aforementioned, another big shift in public sentiment is our demand that leaders show competence, in spite of their personal foibles. If Donald Trump, and those media hounds yapping at his arse, have taught us anything these last 8 years it is that no one has a corner on moral superiority.? Proper nouns like Epstein and Diddy have become verbs, and Donald Trump, who rightly may be considered a man who loves women for all the wrong reasons, has become a target on the artillery range of journalists around the world.? They love to bring up his infidelities and peccadilloes, hoping this may increase their dismal ratings on the evening news.

But, slowly, we have become immunized to this tool of repression and diversion.? By haranguing Donald Trump for his small hands, we are coming to realize all of us are lacking morally in one way or another.? Trump has become a kind of mirror-writ-large for our fallen natures, and yet few of us have his ability to let things roll off our backs with such aplomb.? Trump is a kind of 'Everyman' for our humanity that fails the tests others think we should hold dear.? We need more farce, not less; more fiction, and less reality. Even Jesus Christ took the side of prostitutes and prisoners, and even the rich Elon Musks of his day; his own disciples excoriated him from his close associations with various unsavory sorts, along with the wealthy. In His view, all of us deserved Grace.

More to the point, the voting public sees through this misplaced morality by our leaders, who use sex as a nuclear weapon to drive out the competition. It’s the lowest hanging fruit on the tree of human folly.? Just ask Dante, who ranked evil in his famous poem about the nature of Hell--The Inferno. ?Dante illustrated the consequences of living in a Divine Comedy.? Low on his list of sins is sexual infidelity; ranked high is pride.

To those detractors of Donald Trump who base their righteous opinions on his mixed moral message, we give a back-handed compliment to Donald, and say ?“Thank you for helping us rise above the mundane.”? And to our vaunted intelligence services—the CIA, the FBI, MI6 and Mossad—who love to use sex as a tool to compromise our leaders, and who enjoy video-taping sexual episodes with hidden cameras as methods of repression against enemies, we can say, “Your days are numbered.? Now we understand the poor joke on all of us, and we won’t stand for it in 2025.? Your game is up.” Sex no longer sells--or distracts. ?

Set My People Free

To the economics of our day, the Chicken Littles of our world have been working overtime, trying to convince us the sky is falling and markets may never recover.? This buys plenty of good coverage in our mediocre press, and social media is milking every last drop of this nonsense, monetizing our fears and turning them into advertising gold.

The news of higher interest rates and government debt is drowning out the good news that several factors may soon cause our listing ship to right itself again.? Today marks the start of the new US Administration, and things will start changing almost immediately.?

Here is where we see value on the horizon, and reasons for hope.

1.????? The Death of the Administrative State—Governments are sucking at the teat of taxpayers, leaving behind carnage that is hard to reverse.? News has surfaced that the majority of public workers (by some estimates >80%) are doing so virtually, away from their offices.? Trump will begin cleaning house immediately, cutting budgets and entire departments, in an effort to make government more responsible. By demanding our public employees actually work, he will bring back some sanity to our Federal Agencies that are out of control.

2.????? Renewed attention on the Middle Class—contrary to all the talk about the rich getting richer, it remains the case that the Middle Class pays the vast majority of government bills.? Improving employment and opportunities for the Middle Class will become a priority.? Under Biden, the major beneficiary of employment has been government workers.? This trend will begin reversing almost immediately.? Meanwhile, this will be at the expense of government workers. We expect huge layoffs in the public sector.

3.????? De-Regulation—the greatest potential for quick recovery in the economy is Trump’s promise to begin de-regulating those laws that shackle every element of our economy.? De-regulation is the tonic for growth, freeing small businesses that depend on agility to maneuver and expand.?? Big corporations can afford legal teams to navigate the government speed bumps, but small operations have to manage on their own.? In the fist days and weeks, the new administration will discard rules that limit quick growth.?

4.????? Labor Re-adjustment—This euphemism involves the supply and demand of labor to undergo a massive re-adjustment, starting with illegal immigrants returned to their countries of origin.? The main beneficiaries of illegal immigration are big corporate interests.? The result of less cheap labor will improve prospects for local workers along with higher salaries; yes, this may sound counter-intuitive for growth, but higher labor costs will offset the huge burden of immigration and integration of some 20+ million illegals.? Freedom doesn’t come cheaply, nor does housing at choice at hotels downtown in Sanctuary Cities around the USA.?? If inflation results, and people know Uncle Sam is looking out for their interests once again, the population will tighten its belts and hone in to improve efficiency and productivity. It's back to looking out for community. Even wacko Hillary was bright enough to note, "It takes a village." Hence, my homage to the photo at the top of this article.

Gold--The Last Metal Standing?

In our industry, gold is the standard for countering and hedging inflation. ?Events like a dying US Dollar and growing budget deficits feed this notion. But we see gold as a dead metal, and we envision risks on the downside if things stabilize in the economy.? Our recommendation is to avoid listening to the hucksters on YouTube and late night television shows that promise insane price increases and profits.? ?

The irony here is gold is priced in USD, so any drop in the Dollar means gold must exceed this weaker dollar.? Hardly comforting for investors.? One hand washes the other, with a net zero result.? ??

So don’t go for this ruse.? Better to stick with equities and join what we view as the coming rally in high quality global stocks.

The Vagaries of the US Dollar

Finally, the Dollar is the odd-ball in today’s world of finance.? If the US wants to improve its global reach, it must export more.? To export, it must compete on price.? To compete on price, the dollar should be weaker than the currencies of competitors.?

But herein lies the rub.? The US is not only a consumer society, but the country with the largest trade DEFICIT.? If the dollar weakens, inflation rises, perhaps wildly so.?

Conversely, a stronger dollar keeps inflation low, and prices reasonable.? How will the US respond to this push and pull?? The answer to this question will affect the next 4 years.? We cannot predict the vagaries of the global economy, but we know Americans love predictability, so major changes may be muted at best.????

We are entering exciting times of change and innovation, where risk-taking becomes the norm again, and hope springs eternal. If you switch off the channels of your main stream media, you can hear the whistle of a slow train coming around the bend.....

Happy, Healthy, Innovative 2025.? ??

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