The New Year, Trump Tariffs and the Davos World
Geeta Sundaram
Ex-Ogilvy, Brand Strategist & Creative Director/writer, over 20 years in the business; open to relocating anywhere
Once again, the world’s most powerful countries and business and political leaders converged for the Annual World Economic Forum Summit at Davos in January 2025. But what a changed environment it is, this time. With Trump inaugurated for his second non-consecutive term, the world is bracing itself for more chaos, disruption and uncertainty. The context is heightened protectionism, tariff increases, two wars that need to end soon, and economic uncertainty.
The contrast couldn’t be more glaring. Between what the new Trump administration promises in America and what the Davos Man wishes to continue doing in cooperation with countries around the world. Between America First and the World Together. Between punitive tariffs on countries that export to America and a rules-based trading and world economic order that seeks to break down barriers. In this context, the Davos Summit Theme of “Collaboration in an Intelligent Age” couldn’t be more relevant and important.
The reference to intelligent age is probably machine intelligence, since the WEF has been focusing on the industrial revolution 4.0 for several years now and artificial intelligence has also been gaining momentum. The Summit programme confirmed these views of mine, as all of it reeked of unprofessional PR agency idiot bosses’ interference and meddling. Last year too, I could tell that they had meddled and I had written about the conference discussions in detail. This year, for obvious reasons, I do not wish to dwell on the summit itself but on the context that presents itself and what I think is the more sensible way to negotiate it through 2025.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen’s address to the WEF was impressive in that it clearly showed that Europe is seized of the changing world order and what Europe needs to do to become more competitive while still remaining cooperative with the rest of the world. China’s Vice Premier, Ding Xuexiang, stressed on China’s and President Xi Jinping’s commitment to a globalized world order where China will play a more responsible role, including in helping the Global South develop. Ukraine’s President, Volodymir Zelensky spoke about the need for Europe to become more united, competitive and self-sufficient economically and militarily.
The main challenges and issues facing the world in 2025 as I see it are the following:
These are not exactly the broad themes that you will find in the Davos Summit, but nevertheless are the most important issues facing us this year, and those that require global cooperation more than ever. More importantly, aside from the issue of global debt, all the other challenges require the use of the latest technologies, and those of the future. Ergo, collaboration in the intelligent age. As last year, this year too, the last discussion at Davos, The Global Economic Outlook was the most sensible and relevant from a policy perspective and perhaps the right note on which to conclude the summit.
Unfortunately, technology is where the latest and most intense form of competition is taking place, not just between companies but between countries. The past few years, especially under Biden’s regime in the US, the world has seen the eco-tech competition as I call it, ratchet up between the world’s two greatest powers, America and China. Not all of it is healthy competition, I am afraid, and it leads me to think why this phase of digital technology development is causing so much friction and fear between countries.
It is true that since the Covid pandemic, governments around the world have gotten bigger and this is to be expected in a time of a global crisis. However, they have gotten bigger in another sense and I think this has to do with their funding and subsidising technological research and development. Recognising that AI is the new frontier as is quantum computing, countries are pouring in money into incentivising innovation and technology development. Information technology has now become a core strategic sector for governments and a lot of it is used in building defence and military capabilities. Much of the need for protectionism arises from this.
However, let us remember that globalisation which has been in force from the 1990s onwards, was not led by government policies but by global multinational firms that sought expansion from new markets and shifted production to countries based on lower labour cost arbitrage. Information technology was already around and widely used, but it didn’t occupy such a big part of our work and our lives. If anything, technology too encouraged globalization especially through the internet. In this context, I must mention another Davos discussion worth listening to, on demystifying industrial policy, though it is more on the change in US’s industrial policy with Trump 2.0 and how the world should deal with it.
The question to ask ourselves is what is it about this phase of technology development that makes us feel compelled to protect it from other countries, restrict its access and guard it as if our lives depended on it. Surely, the way US and some other countries have decided to ban the export/sale of certain advanced chip technology and components on the grounds of national security will prohibit its proper advancement and widespread use across the world to bring a world of good. It’s not China alone that suffers, it’s the entire world.
The reason as I see it is this. Both information technology as well as biotechnology (both for food production as well as medicine) have the power to bring great benefits to mankind, but they also have the potential to bring great harm if not properly regulated. And both rely on data, which are of great importance not just to companies but to governments. From what little I have read of the new technologies including AI, the possibilities of what one can do with all this data have exploded and are infinite today.
It is this data and all its possibilities that companies and indeed governments are fighting over and competing for. At a time when the world really ought to be cooperating more in creating a global framework for how this data ought to be gathered, processed, analysed and acted upon. The what, where, why and how of data needs a set of rules and this can only come from countries working together. There is another very strong reason why the self-professed guardians of national security ought to be concerned with creating a global framework, in a way that directly impacts national security for all countries: cybercrime by both state and non-state actors.
As important as national security is personal security, privacy and the protection of one’s civil liberties and rights in this so-called intelligent age. Until now, tech companies have surged so far ahead with their innovations and new ideas, many of which conflict with our sense of privacy, security, work capabilities and our sense of self that governments and regulators have a long way to go before they catch up. Big tech is busy foisting new products and concepts on us including many that are assistants, that we will soon be turned into puppets and automatons.
Thinking that they are on to something great, these tech giants are also engaged in cut-throat competition with each other. Just look at the number of generative AI tools that have sprung up in the past year; I have lost count of them and haven’t tried any except Microsoft Designer which I have to say disappointed in my last image generation prompt and I haven’t used it since. This, when I think that generative AI on the whole isn’t the best or most intelligent use of AI, and have written quite a bit about what I think of the phenomenon on my blog. I remain unimpressed and a sceptic of gen AI, as I don’t require anyone to do my thinking or writing for me, thank you. The Davos Summit had a panel discussion on more sensible uses of AI that I think is what the world ought to pursue.
Governments have cottoned on to this competition and are bitten by the competitive bug as well. They have taken it to ridiculous levels between countries and are preventing its proper access and spread to millions of users around the world. What we are seeing now in the US with Trump’s new term is a dangerous nexus developing between tech companies and the government; it was always there, as I have been writing on my blog which is why there is little to no regulation of the industry in the US, but it has taken a more brazen turn recently.
What we need is for governments to focus on regulation and creating an enabling framework for technology advancements including a global framework, as I have written before. And for companies to focus on what they do best: innovating, investing and coming up with new ideas and products that help improve life for millions. All this without compromising on personal or national security. This requires businesses and governments to focus on their strengths and areas of work, not to collude in the name of partnership or any other silly euphemism they might invent. Stargate in the US is the most recent example.
The more we go down this road, the more it will engender a perpetual Cold War mentality in which ordinary people are no more than pawns. It will create new divides not just between countries but between employees and business owners, between workers and management, between the poor and the rich, etc. Trust will break down even further. Think of what it will do to billions of workers and employees around the world. As it is, 2025 has begun with news of layoffs once again in the US. While 2022 and 2023 began with similar news of massive layoffs, it was said to be because of over-hiring in the tech boom year, 2021. Last year and this time, it is believed to be because of AI compelling organisations, including tech companies, to make changes in their structure.
Collaboration requires a common understanding between all parties – governments, businesses and ordinary citizens – of what this tech-enabled so-called intelligent age will mean for all of us. This should include a clear sense of how the intelligent age can be expected to operate and rules and guidelines for how it should indeed operate. None of this exists at the moment. Not in the US, not in China, not anywhere in the world. Besides techies who find the entire AI phenomenon exciting, I doubt anyone else has a clue.
We are about to enter an extremely uncertain and dangerous phase, where companies and governments will collude and compete to control our lives. And I am sorry to say that none of this strikes me as particularly collaborative or intelligent. ?
The featured image at the start of this post is from Flickr on WEF’s website
This article first appeared on my blog on January 27, 2025.