New Year, New Opportunities -Same Challenges in Real Estate.
Welcome to 2024! I hope this brings some clarity to what you may have seen in the news.
As always feel free to connect with me directly for any questions regarding the Real Estate Market
Snapshot Summary:
What Trends are we seeing?
Let's delve into the intriguing dynamics of Canada's real estate market, particularly in the context of 2023's evolving landscape. It's been a year of notable shifts, primarily driven by the rising interest rates. This change has been a significant factor, first causing hesitation among buyers, and then among sellers. Reflecting on the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's data, we observed a 12% reduction in transactions compared to the previous year. Interestingly, the average property prices also witnessed a modest decline of 5.4%. However, this relatively slight decrease in prices amidst such dramatic interest rate fluctuations speaks volumes about the resilience and robustness of our markets in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area.
As we zero in on the month-to-month analysis, December 2023 presented a rather optimistic scenario. We saw a substantial 11.5% increase in transactions compared to December of the preceding year, coupled with a 3.2% rise in average prices. Notably, all sectors in the GTA, barring condo apartments, experienced this surge, with semi-detached homes leading the pack, boasting a 36.7% hike in sales. This uptick in transactions interestingly coincided with a 6.6% drop in new listings, suggesting a market where buyers are actively engaging despite the limited new inventory.
December also marked the return of multiple offer scenarios, underlining the market's regained vigor. Homes received as many as 23 offers, and listings introduced post-Christmas were swiftly snapped up before the New Year, signaling a robust and active market.
What lies ahead...
Looking forward, the keyword is 'anticipation.' Our focus is trained on various economic indicators - unemployment rates, GDP trends, impending interest rate announcements, inflationary pressures, and shifts in buyer and seller behaviours. A critical observation is the trajectory of mortgage renewals at varying interest rates in the coming years: 14% in 2024, escalating to 35% by 2026.
The consensus doesn't lean towards a surge in distress sales significantly impacting Toronto and GTA's affordability issues. The expectation is that most borrowers are positioned to manage the increased costs associated with renewed mortgages. Moreover, there's an anticipation of a downward trend in interest rates, starting as early as the second quarter of 2024. This expected rate adjustment aims to foster economic growth without exacerbating inflation.
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In terms of macroeconomic factors, unemployment rates are under the spotlight, especially considering the Bank of Canada's strategy for rate adjustments in 2024. With the current unemployment rate at 5.8% and robust wage growth, the expectation is for a slight uptick in unemployment to trigger rate reductions.
Another critical factor to consider is the impact of the 2024 United States election. Given our close economic ties, the outcome and the period leading up to the election are likely to introduce a degree of caution in market activities.
For those contemplating a lifestyle change or looking to build wealth through real estate, the upcoming 30 to 90 days might offer unique opportunities. This period could present a window to secure properties in a less competitive environment, a crucial consideration for strategic investment decisions.
David Chiarucci
647-643-5728