New Year, New Management?

Scandals appear to have dominated headlines throughout the Johnson premiership. From tales of flat refurbishment to Matt Hancock’s illicit affair, Boris Johnson’s time as Prime Minister has not been short of political drama. Yet somehow, he is often left untainted and undamaged, always managing to recover, unharmed. However, Johnson’s most recent “bring your own booze” event may have broken the spell. Like most people, Johnson’s resolution of “New Year New Me” crumbled shortly into the beginning of 2022, with a new scandal kicking off the year. It seems that this latest scandal has instilled the greatest national outcry so far, with calls for his resignation coming from far and wide. In an attempt to save himself from both public opinion and his own benches, Johnson has offered a plethora of apologies, to the Queen, the British Public and also his own Party. However, it is uncertain to what effect this will have in suppressing the anger from both inside and outside the walls of Westminster, with some commenting that the apologies came too late.

Viewers of Johnson’s statement of apology to the House witnessed a shift in mood amongst his own benches. Usually met with nods and cheers of support, the tone of Tory MPs seems to almost a subtle acknowledgement that his position is hanging in the balance. At the time of writing, the Times claim that at least 58 Tories have publicly broken cover and joined the Opposition’s call for the Prime Minister’s resignation. This includes a group of 20 MPs from the 2019 intake, who met last night to discuss whether to act against Johnson’s leadership, raising the question, is a vote of no confidence waiting in the wings? Although, unsurprisingly, many Cabinet ministers rushed to Johnson’s side, Sunak’s response, or lack-of, is a particular point of interest. Tipped as Johnson’s successor, Sunak certainly kept quiet in the fallout of Downing Street’s latest scandal, merely tweeting “The PM was right to apologise and I support his request for patient while Sue Gray carries out her inquiry”. A clear attempt to distance himself from the Prime Minister, Sunak may have begun his unofficial campaign for leadership.

Nevertheless, despite a potential vote of no confidence looming, Sue Gray’s inquiry into the event will be crucial in shaping the timing of Johnson’s outcome. If the report blames Johnson, a potential resignation or vote of no confidence is likely to unfold. Additionally, if it concludes that Johnson is not to be blamed, he is likely to attract significant criticism over the independence of the inquiry, with his MPs holding the cards to a potential future vote of no confidence. Either way, the outcome of the report is likely to have further negative effects on the Prime Minister.

Whilst Gray’s report is unlikely to rule over any law-breaking activity from within Government, she could find that officials, including the Prime Minister, broke the ministerial code. Yet as the Prime Minister ultimately holds the power on matters of the ministerial code, including his own conduct, the inquiry’s conclusion is certainly not the final word on Johnson’s premiership.

Rather predictably, most minister are holding their cards close to their chests, keeping quiet until the conclusions of Gray’s inquiry are released. Raab was one of few ministers to comment on the inquiry, stating that a Prime Minister found to have deliberately lied to Parliament would “normally” resign. For many of Johnson’s loyalist MPs, the upcoming local elections in May could be a turning point. With pressures rising over Labour polling its highest in eight years, many watch on with worry, concerned about a similar outcome as the recent North Shropshire by-election, whereby a Tory safe seat was dramatically, and unpredictably, lost to the Liberal Democrats. Almost waiting for real-time evidence that his leadership could jeopardise the Party’s success in May 2024, the outcome of the elections is pivotal and has the potential for prominent electoral fallout.

In recent years, Conservative party leaders have resigned before they officially fall. Both Cameron and May recognised their impending fate over Europe and were swift to act. However, only time will tell if Johnson intends to go the same way or yet again manages to survive another political scandal.