New year eve is going to be rather chilly and foggy for North India. Southern parts will witness contrast with moderate temperature and light rains.
Jatin Singh
Founder & Chairman at Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd and Founder & Director at Gramcover
Post Monsoon and NorthEast Monsoon season both will conclude on a satisfactory note on 31st December 20. However, Kerala and Mahe in south and plains of North India will end with a fair amount of deficit. La Nina conditions have manifested leaving most subdivisions parched over North India. Such a repeat is anticipated even for the upcoming winter season during January and February 2021.
La Nina effect is showing up in terms of shortfall of winter rains. Northwest India as a whole is deficient by 39%. Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan and Haryana are the worst performers in that order. These cyclic events also aided by climate change is believed to have ravaged Kashmir’s “Red Gold” saffron crop. Dry conditions blamed on climate change have seen yield of the world’s most expensive spice halved in the past two decades, threatening the future of the cash crop. Variability of temperature is making intensity and frequency of rainfall erratic altering the subsoil moisture composition. Also, the depleting glaciers due to the climate change are considered responsible for restricting water flow in the Downstream the produce of “red gold” has been reduced to 1.4 KG per hectare which is just half the figure recorded in the 90’s. Nearly 90% of the world’s saffron is grown in Iran, but Kashmir's crop is considered to be superior for its deep red colour and distinct aroma. The harvest season of saffron which normally comes 8-10 weeks after planting is getting impacted also by the CORONA Virus pandemic.
New year eve is going to be rather chilly and foggy for North India. Southern parts will witness contrast with moderate temperature and light rains. Another spell of unseasonal weather activity is expected over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh at the fag end of the week which may roll over even to the next week.
North India
The remnant of western disturbance and its induced cyclonic circulation will have a residual effect in the hills and the plains as well on 28th December. While Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh will continue will scattered rain and snow the foothills of Punjab Haryana Delhi and Uttar Pradesh will continue with dense fog in pockets. The minimum temperature will drop and possible lead to cold wave conditions. New year eve will be chilly and foggy but without the threat of rain, anywhere over the entire region.
East and Northeast India
Fog and mist in the morning hour and windy conditions during the day will be the highlight of the week. Many places in Bihar will observe single-digit temperatures and cold wave conditions. Northeast India will remain free from any significant weather activity except fog at select places like Jorhat, Tezpur, Guwahati, Bagdogra, Agartala and Imphal.
Central Parts
The entire region will remain free from any significant weather activity from Monday to Saturday. Gujarat west MP and North Maharashtra are likely to have above-normal night temperatures during the second half of the week. Spell of Unseasonal rain is expected over parts of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh is expected on the last day of the week 3rd of January and this will spill over even to the neighbouring parts of Uttar Pradesh as well.
South Peninsula
Tamil Nadu, Kerala and south interior Karnataka will have light to moderate rain during the week. Spread an intensity could be more on 29th and 30th of December. Bangalore, Chennai and Trivandrum may have few spells of rains on the new year eve and the day prior also.
Delhi NCR
The month of December is likely to run dry for the national capital. Cold wave conditions, foggy morning and sunny days will be the highlights of the week without any rainfall throughout. New year eve possibly will turn partly cloudy with thin cloud cover.
Chennai
The city may receive parting showers of the Northeast Monsoon season during the first half of the week and mostly dry later on. The maximum and minimum temperatures will hover around 30degree and 20 degree Celsius respectively.
Delhi Pollution
Since the last few days air pollution in Delhi and NCR is in “Very Poor” category; “Severe” air quality category can be found in isolated pockets. We do not expect any significant improvement in air quality index of Delhi and NCR in the next 2-3 days either.
The air quality in the region may see some marginal improvement by the end of the week due to strengthening of dry and cold north westerly winds. But we do not expect it to come down to “Satisfactory” or “Moderate” category. Some isolated pockets may continue to remain in “Severe” category for the whole week.