A New World Order: China, Geopolitics & Structural Inflation

The Players:?

George Magnus - Economist and commentator, Research Associate at the China Centre at Oxford University, former Chief Economist at UBS

Mark Astley – Co-CEO of Millennium Global

The Premise:

We re-examine some of the structural forces that have characterised global economics and finance over the past several decades, namely the rise of China and its integration into the global economic system and the 30+ year structural disflationary impetus across the global economy. Have these two epochal trends run their course??Have we now entered a “New World Order”, with secular demographic change and a “diplomatic winter” between China and the Rest of the World effectively reversing globalization and pushing us into a regime of rising systemic inflation??Furthermore, what does the Russian invasion of Ukraine imply for China’s geopolitical aspirations, including for Taiwan?

Tug of War:

Will these trends be exacerbated by China’s new rapport with Russia and a world increasingly split between “democracy vs autocracy”? If so, what are the consequences for asset allocation and for foreign exchange??

The Perfect Storm:

2022 is shaping up to be the perfect storm for the Chinese economy, from the omicron variant locking down some of China’s largest and most economically robust cities, to China’s beleaguered property sector and to a structural decline in productivity that will take a generation to play out.?In addition, let’s not forget China’s serious demographic problem and the terrible legacy of their “one child” policy.

Shifting Tides:

We tackle the crucial issue of globalization and how, where and when we should expect to see challenges to integration play out across the map and the consequences of a reversal of globalization for the global economy. We also examine the pronounced shift in the balance of power from capital to labour as a result of demographic trends and the long term risks of systemic inflation.

The Fallout:

What do these epochal trends mean for financial markets and the performance of different asset classes particularly if the rising inflation environment persists??What are the likely consequences of this new regime for currency markets and are the cyclical and structural forces necessarily the same under an inflation regime??Finally, does this new regime present potential challenges to the USD as the world’s reserve currency?

To dive further into these pressing topics, please view the webinar here:

https://investments.millenniumglobal.com/news/a-new-world-order-china-geopolitics-and-structural-inflation-webinar

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