A new super VUCA world

Additionally, to my previous article about coronavirus consequences for the automotive business, this article is about one particular change that all of us are facing at the moment and will meet for the following years. 

 I'm talking about the planning horizon. How far are you ready to plan your future today? Are you able to plan your vacation this summer? Are you ready to book a family trip for Thanksgiving day? 

Let's imagine a marketing specialist who is responsible for participating in exhibitions, for example. Previously, he planned his work thoroughly for at least a year in advance. And for exhibitions held once in 2 years, the schedule was build for two years. Many contracts for participation in the show next year were signed immediately during the current one. So organizers, exhibitions, and exhibitors were able to plan their work. Some of them start to invite clients, partners, and contractors to their booths and make appointments for the exhibition's dates within three or even six months. Today is no longer possible. Most significant shows are canceled or postponed to a later date. This week's latest news was the postponement of one of the largest aftermarket exhibitions in the world - Frankfurt Automechanica show for next year. I.e., the show, which for decades was held once every two years, was postponed to September 2021. The exhibition's press office informs that it will refund all participants all expenses made in advance, including tickets and hotel reservations. It means that there were some companies and individuals who planned to visit this exhibition before the quarantines. Before the coronavirus quarantine means at least at the beginning of March or six months in advance to the show itself. Will anyone now buy tickets and book a hotel for the exhibition in November this year? Most of the world countries don't know will they work in 1 month. The same situation everywhere, it concerns not only exhibitions, not only marketing but even everyday life.

We used to read scientific articles about the VUCA world. (V = Volatility: the nature and dynamics of change. U = Uncertainty: the lack of predictability. C = Complexity: the multiplex of forces. A = Ambiguity: the haziness of reality. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility,_uncertainty,_complexity_and_ambiguity).

 If you don't get used to the VUCA world, welcome to the new one - super VUCA world! Today we all have a chance to have specific plans for 2-3 weeks at most. In many cases, people are trying to postpone all critical decisions until "after the coronavirus." Are you sure that coronavirus will end? Many experts say about the second wave, some say about two years of virus activity, some even about five years. Thus, we must learn very shortly to live in such conditions when the situation can change at any moment so that we will have to change our plans by 180 degrees. For example, you have planned the release of a new product in the fall and prepare an excellent presentation. But in the fall, coronavirus is back with the second wave of quarantine or not? These are the conditions in which you will have to live, work, build development strategies, plan budgets, set goals, and be ready to change, rethink, and adapt everything in a few days. It is a new stage of planning development. Banks and large corporations with their "mandatory" payments, payment deadlines, revenue planning, and compliance with budgets will be the most difficult to adapt to this life.

A manager's most valuable skills are planning, organizing, and controlling, but now we have also to add flexibility. We need to get used to the situation that we don't control. 

We still need to build plans, build forecasts, and try to predict and anticipate the future, but now we have to boost our flexibility. Previously it would be best if you had Plan "A" and Plan "B," sometimes people insisted that you have to finish with initial Plan A because there is no Plan "B," but today your Plan "B" is "there is no plan." So many things are changing quickly and significantly: we all have to prepare ourselves to start our new Plan A from the ground and sometimes even from nothing at any given moment.  

Improvise as there is no plan B, it is a new super VUCA world.