Will The New Samsung Z Flip and Z Fold Finally Make Foldables a Break-Out Market?

There have been a number of #foldable designs over the past 3-4 years that were supposed to make this class of #smartphones take a major share of the market. Yet for all of their promise, the market share for #foldables has remained in the lower single digits compared to the non-foldables. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that 苹果 has yet to offer a foldable device, and Apple holds a major share of the smartphone market. But more importantly in my opinion, the early foldable devices really were more of a novelty for most users than an attractive option, and were offered at a high premium price to boot. With the new 三星电子 #Galaxy Z #Flip and Z #Fold being announced at Samsung’s Galaxy Unpacked event in Korea, and with other credible devices like the 谷歌 #Pixel Fold now in market, I believe we are at an inflexion point.

I won’t spend time on the specs of the new Samsung Galaxy devices, as there is lots of information about that and many review articles being written. But what’s different about the new foldables that I expect will increase their attractiveness for consumers and especially business people who tend to buy premium devices is that there has been a major improvement in design of the #hinge and #screen so that the devices truly look like a traditional flat smart device, and not some “bloated” smartphone that is hard to put into a pocket or maneuver in use.

Second, the ability to use the multiple screens on the device to enhance the convenience of the #UserExperience, especially as more and more users require multiple apps open at the same time for true #multitasking, make these devices much more useful for many users. Convenience after all is a major selling point for these devices. Third, with a better #UserInterface and improved #UserExperience, powered by many #AI features running on the new and very powerful 高通 processors inside these devices, it’s less of a struggle for users to figure out how to use the abundance of features built into these devices that can be hard to navigate without onboard assistance. And finally, the premium price points these devices are selling at ($1700+) has been a challenge. But users have now grown accustomed to paying in excess of $1K for a phone, even though clearly not all users will do so. So for all of these reasons, this generation of devices is far more attractive to a much broader swath of users than the previous generation devices were, and are much more accessible from a cost perspective.

Let me say that I certainly don’t see these devices supplanting the dominance of the standard, flat, premium smartphone. Nor do I think they are the best option for all users. But I do believe that we’ve now reached a point where 15%-20% of premium users, particularly those interested in the increasing complexity being available in modern day smartphones that can benefit from the Flex and Fold design, will be quite interested in foldable devices. It may take 1-2 years and perhaps another generation or two of foldables to achieve this penetration, but given the penchant for premium phone devices, and the ability of carriers to make the purchase less painful, I think we’ll see a major uptake of foldable devices, and frankly with Samsung in a dominant market position for #Android based devices, they should capture the leading share of the foldables market.

So bottom line, I expect the new Samsung Flip and Fold devices to be very popular at the high end of the premium phone market with the new improved designs and functionality. And I expect increasing competition in the foldable market from Google, Lenovo/Motorola, Honor, One Plus, etc., which should finally break open the market and increase market share dramatically, while also officering some additional and perhaps more attractive price points for consumers (BTW, I don’t expect an #iPhone foldable anytime soon). While we’ve waited for foldables to take off in the market over the past several generations of devices and haven’t seen it happen, I think this time, with all the improvements being made by Samsung and others, it’s finally time for foldables to break out of their niche.

J.Gold Associates provides advisory services, syndicated research, strategic consulting and in-context analysis to help its clients make important technology choices and to enable improved product deployment decisions and go to market strategies. Contact us at info (at) jgoldassociates (dot) com. And sign up for our newsletter distribution list.

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