The New Real; Vironomics

We leave May behind. If we consider that we face the mortal face of the pandemic at the beginning of March, we can say that we have closed the third month with the facts and mood we are not accustomed to. Imagine what the last 100 days meant to you, and I want to tell you how the top executives who are laying the roads of the economy feel and then meet you with future scenarios.

According to the results of a very new global survey, 2079 top managers worldwide summarized their post-pandemic lives as "hell". 36 percent, crying after the "lost paradise", 29 percent stated that they spent 100 days by liking "Black Swan from Black Swan" by referring to Black Swan Theory. If I make a generalization, the senior management found the uncertainty “toxic” in terms of economic revival.

Despite, all the training they have had and as a result the subject of their speeches at every opportunity, we may come to the conclusion that managers are not successful in issues such as being prepared - creative - memorizing - successful in difficult times… Therefore, when asked how long they expect normalization, they are not afraid to say months - years. However, some research points to the opposite. I would like to bring to your attention a study that looks out from the full side of the glass.

GLASS FULL, BUT HOW

Ahmet Yal??n is a Technology Strategist. When working in Accenture, one of the leading service companies in the world, for many years. Management consultancy is coded in the his DNA. As a computer engineer he has turned up the cognitive neurology and devoted his time in  academic laboratory activities.  He extended his interest to venture capital specifically in technology from Silicon Valley to Berlin- Germany and Turkey. Yal??n is also a partner of the non-profit think tank Helix Foundation.

The main idea of  this article is a reasearch named "Vironomics; Technology and Business in Pandemic Times" published by Helix Foundation. Following the pandemic, the research team, including Yal??n, scripted life on different possibilities. The group announced its findings in the second half of April. They had the chance to test their predictions within one and a half months. I didn't want to miss the opportunity to learn their observations in between. The interesting thing about the study is that it speaks of tangible tomorrow, not a distant future. Yal??n helped me to interpret the research in a clear language. Below, I will try to explain what kind of a day we are expected to wake up from tomorrow on.

V U L W; SCENARIOS

As you know… scenarios come into play in uncertainties. We can define these studies as predicting the future with certain parameters and information. The group, which transformed active signals in March into scenarios within 5 weeks, boldly internalized global research results and methods, including Oxford McKinsey collaboration findings. If I roughly summarize the methodology; 9 scenarios were studied in two dimensions: economy, health, in further  “good”, “medium” and “bad” categories. They eliminated the samples circulating at the ends and reduced the number to 4. Future predictions symbolized with the letters V U L W. 

V, Hard fall awesome output; The U hard decline output symbolizes the L and W hard and bad scenarios. With the joint decision, they excluded one scenario from the possibility and ended their predictions on 3 scenarios.

WHICH SCENARIO IS ELIMINATED?

They anticipate that pandemic will not produce deadly results, as predicted persistently. They consider the possibility of a better world as a realistic scenario if the innovations and advantages created by the pandemic are handled in an ethical framework. Yal??n said, “The script work is not gambling, but if we are going to play on the findings, we have given the chance to live in the scenario where the virus is under control.”

"Did you think that you have been wrong over time?" I asked. They were surprised that the pessimistic scenario emerged from the research conducted among thousands of executives who are among the leading institutions around the world. 2 out of 3 CEOs are pessimistic about the future. Yal??n thinks that these people evaluate their votes in a pessimistic scenario by looking at company performances.

WHY ARE  CEOs PESSIMIST?

I would like to remind you that we had the chance to observe that the CEOs were wrong many times from the fashion they followed. Could most of the managers be living in their own towers and stock market index, far from seeing the general picture and perspective on the good day and the bad day?… At this point, I would like to suggest you to compare the Biotech-weighted company stock market performances with the increase in S&P. Could this also show us the difference in understanding between the past and the future? ...

Yal??n says that the motto “too big to fail” evolved to “too many to fail”. We will be able to cope with the virus in the middle of the summer, according to the estimation studies, which he stated to be scientific, however, it is early to rejoice; it will come back in a few months and leave us with a second chaos of 3-4 months.

WHY GET FURTHER WORSE?

Economically, the situation is not heartwarming, we all know and feel. Vironomics prediction is optimist; There will be a little more than 15 months of departure… he thinks opposites will not come to the world in less than 3-5 years of sunny days. Let's not forget that some of the parties are walking on individual and unemployment and some on corporate performances in terms of recovery terms and economic evaluations. These two axes are not looking at the same picture. Vironomics used the corporate perspective. If you think that 20-50 trillion USD is injected into the markets, can you see a reason to be worse? Yal??n asked while adding a significant point by saying, "After that, will we live in fear of all molecules?"

THE MOST POWERFUL CONVERTER

Corona virus, which caused hundreds of thousands of death, it seems heart breaking to draw positive results from the pandemic. Yet, at first glance, the deadly virus gives strong positive signs of the future. I can summarize the definition of positive as “reverse traffic”.

First, I would like to list the invisible and not yet tangible ones; Transformation from autocratic structure to decentralized structure, reverse internal migration (from city to rural), returning from our free modern global worlds to small modest home, transition from office work in hegemony of “laciers” to home office concept, transition from education disproportionate earnings to balanced work earning structure that can soften wage inequality, open to the world to approach the dream of universal basic income, which defies the fate of being born and dying.

ONE SMALL RNA

If we look at the concrete and positive developments that can be seen, it is clear that a molecule we call RNA is more successful than all the celebrities we know - almost all of the world leaders and famous activists, achieving environmental protection for unprecedented successes in carbon dioxide emissions. Isn't it also a positive development that the vaccine, which is not known for how many years and  billions of  USD to be realsized can be released in 12-18 months?

Corona is the most powerful exchange engine ever. We are in a period when the effects of technology illiterate population have become technology users. None the less we have begun to redefine ourselves, and start to question the sources we trust, and open the issue of trust to a discussion. Began also to change our many habits including consuming.

THE ROLE OF THE STATE

The state is advantageous partner from the trio of  individual - company – state, for now. The state acted reflexively with what it learned from past crises, and with the fear of future elections. While others thought with the effect of the shock, Let's not forget, state reflexes work with codes of the past, it is impossible to say they are creative. In order to revive the economy, states announced material packages to  prevent bankruptcies and unemployment, with only the difference of amount of money distributed, no matter how big or small the package was, it is far from innovation. 50 trillion dollars at a global level, has not gone beyond the stereotype.

HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE?

Vironomics points out that individuals accept state leadership with their own consent with the reflex of helplessness and acceptance of authority. However, it gives the strong state role a temporary chance. Research foresee that the states, on the one hand, reinforce their authority, on the other hand swept the problems outside the pandemic under the carpet and will be questioned individually in a short period of time.

FANATIC NATIONALISM

It is no surprise to any of us; nationalism and populism is increasing. The spooky thing is that it doesn't have a ceiling yet. It is predicted that the trends will go further to an extend of “vaccination nationalism”. Then we can see a different world…

An other grave problem; despite the pandemic, the wars on the field continue. The very fact distracts our attention from other wars fought without the use military equipment. Our eyes used to choosing the war in Syria, in Afghanistan, or in  Libya. Would it not be fair to call the relation between US and Germany unnamed war! Washington, seized 2 and a half million masks destined to Germany from South Korea, did not hesitate to take hostile steps to force the R&D center of a German based company close to announce a victory on vaccine. 

WHO IS GOING TI SAVE US?

Viromics estimates 12-18 months for populist policies. I gather, history will remember these days as "we thought it was a dream, everything changed when we woke up". “Technophile” means technology lovers. Technology lovers find it inevitable that globalization, which has disappeared under nationalism, will return with the ingenuity of technology. This is the point they make for  12-18 month prophecy.

So which technologies will save us? Digital money will be the first it seems. A no bank system, with a decentralized authority, and end-to-end secure system will break nationalism, protectionism and populism within 1-2 years.

Technophilles like to give the classic example of the African continent where technology transform a continent, enabling 1.1 billion individuals without a reach to the traditional financial system to be a part of the economy.

FINGER PRINT

Health and food will take the lead in areas that will gain momentum. We already started to question the safety of the food we consume, to the detail of where - when - under what conditions it was produced, and through which roads it has reached us. What thousands of activists could not do, a RNA molecule has achieve. There is no escape from information on  child labor or  harmful additive and even  untaxed earnings…  They will all be subject to follow-up on the etiquette. Food fingerprint is no fantasy.  

Crypto money is only the payments part of this revolution. Technophille are happy and hopeful about the developments. It is stated that we have entered the period of M to M (Machine to Machine). The M to M business modeling has already opened the door to a different world Yal??n askes us to divert our radar to the transmission of Central Banks  from opposing crypto money and blockchain system to the state of sharing the same ride on the same train,  the mission is planned to be completed in  3-5 years. Technology is progressing faster than we all predicted.

WHY WOULD STATES ABIDE?

The number of people who say democracy bankrupt, is increasing. So what will happen? Rewriting democracy with code language in the data processing laboratory? This is revolution. The most plausible answer is “compromise” in desperation. Although primary problem is life/death choice, let us not underestimate the grave problem of personal security! Blockchain is the way to overcome the security crisis and the name of the game. There is no other system that has been discovered that will both ensure the privacy of personal data and increase monitoring.

WHOSE  CITIZENS ARE WE?

Fans of  George Orwell and his famous title 1984, may have asked whether this is real… You will not be able to enter work, go to school or travel without proving that you are healthy: passports! Are you ready compromise;  to restrict freedom for freedom? Aren't we all late to ask?

Our passports show country citizenship. The health passports will that show country of origin or giant tech companies;  Isn't that the essence of the fierce China-US war? Being a citizen of Huawei-Alibaba-Baidu or citizenship of Google-Amazon-Facebook-Apple ...

This is not a Hollywood production, it sure is a collaborative work of Beijing Washington…