New Poll Identifies 7 Tribes That Make Up Labour’s 2024 Voter Coalition – And The Action Keir Starmer Needs To Take To Stay In Power

A new voting intention poll of people who voted Labour, carried out by J.L. Partners for Arden Strategies, has identified the 7 tribes that made up Labour’s 2024 voter coalition. It has also identified what Keir Starmer needs to do to keep them on side.?

Key findings from the poll include:

• Labour’s voters demand action on the NHS: ‘Building an NHS fit for the future’ is the government mission Labour voters most prioritise, 86% of those who voted Labour believe the Government should invest more money in the service.
• Starmer’s popularity dwarfs all other politicians: Starmer is by far the most popular politician with people who voted Labour in 2024, with 80% holding a positive view of the Labour leader. 9 in 10 (89%) hold a positive view of the Labour party.
• All Labour frontbenchers in positive territory: All Labour frontbenchers tested are in positive territory with these Labour voters.
• Labour backers overwhelmingly felt enthusiastic about casting their vote: 86% of Labour’s supporters say they felt enthusiastic about voting for Labour at the election – just 13% say they did not.
• Conservatives are nowhere to be seen: Reform UK are the second choice of more Labour voters than the Conservatives – and all Conservative leadership candidates are underwater with voters. Boris Johnson and Priti Patel are the most unpopular politicians in the country.
• Right-wing parties at a major deficit: the Conservative party is at -70 with Labour voters compared to the Liberal Democrats on +14. Labour voters considering Liberal Democrats and Greens all far outnumber those considering Conservative/Reform UK.
• Labour voters still blame the Tories: 8 in 10 (78%) of Labour voters say that the Conservative party is responsible for the current state of the country.
• Willing to consider greater role for private sector: Labour voters are split evenly on whether they would like to see a greater role for the private sector in the NHS.
• Impatient for change: 6 in 10 (61%) of Labour voters want to see change in the next 12 months.
• Cautious on borrowing: 6 in 10 Labour voters (58%), including pluralities of all seven Tribes, say Labour should be cautious when it comes to borrowing to invest.
• Room on tax: Every Labour Tribe bar one is more likely to think taxes should increase rather than decrease – Generation Labour (younger Labour voters) are the exception.
• Conservative on immigration: Every Labour Tribe bar one thinks (on average) that immigration to the UK should be reduced; likewise, every Tribe bar Generation Labour view themselves to the right of the leadership on this issue.
• Labour dominant in Scotland: Anas Sarwar is the most popular politician after Keir Starmer with Labour voters in Scotland on +50, with John Swinney languishing on -39. The SNP are on -47 with these voters compared to Labour’s +86.
• Labour voters want closer relationship with EU: Two thirds (67%) of Labour voters want a closer relationship with the EU – but think that Keir Starmer is less likely to think the same.
• Culture wars: All seven Labour Tribes say there are culture wars in the UK, and all seven see Labour under Starmer as less likely to agree with them.
• Trump bad for Britain: 65% of Labour voters think a Trump presidency would be bad for Britain – but 20% disagree.
• Winter fuel payments cut through: The cut to winter fuel payments is the policy that Labour voters have noticed the most.

LABOUR'S 2024 COALITION

The poll comes 50 days into Starmer’s premiership, and sheds light on the different tribes that makeup Keir Starmer’s coalition. As well as identifying the groups – Blue Lights Labour, Purple Values, Leaning Left, Deliver or Die, Generation Labour, Stop the Boats, Starmer’s Troops – the research sheds light on what the Labour leader needs to do to stay in power.

NHS could be Keir Starmer’s silver bullet as all of these tribes prioritize the health service out of Labour’s 5 missions, with 49% saying they prioritize ‘building an NHS fit for the future’ compared to 24% who say ‘kickstarting economic growth.’ 86% of Labour voters say they want to see more money invested in the NHS. There is even room for the private sector to play a greater role, with Labour voters evenly split on the question.

Keir Starmer and the Labour party are in overwhelmingly positive territory with their voters, with 8 in 10 (80%) holding a positive view of Starmer and 89% the Labour party. All Labour frontbenchers tested are in positive territory, with Reeves on +34, Rayner +32 and Cooper on +24. Ed Davey is also popular with a rating of +16. Despite commentary to the contrary at the time of the general election, 9 in 10 (86%) of Labour voters say they felt enthusiastic about casting their vote for the party.

However, there is pressure for the Government to act fast. Voters are impatient for change and expect to see delivery on the NHS and other priorities fast. 61% of Labour voters say they expect to see change as a result of Labour’s actions in government in under 12 months.

The Conservative Party are still nowhere to be seen after their general election wipeout. They are behind Reform UK, Greens and the Lib Dems in terms of second preference vote,? parties that Labour voters would consider, and positivity. The most unpopular politicians in the country are Boris Johnson and Priti Patel, with all Conservative leadership candidates in negative territory. 8 in 10 Labour voters (78%) think that the Conservative party are responsible for the state of the country. Only 38% of the Blues Values tribe who backed the Conservatives in 2019 now say they would consider the party – about the same that would consider voting Green (35%).

There is more room in public opinion for the Labour party to increase taxes to pay for public services rather than use further borrowing – with younger Labour voters forming an exception. Every Labour Tribe bar one is more likely to think taxes should increase than decrease – Generation Labour (younger Labour voters) are the exception. 6 in 10 Labour voters (58%), including pluralities of all seven Tribes, say Labour should be cautious when it comes to borrowing to invest.

More than two thirds of Labour’s voters would like to see the UK pursue a closer relationship with the EU, with 27% disagreeing. Labour voters’ perceive Keir Starmer to be slightly distanced from themselves on this issue, with 58% believing Keir Starmer would like a closer relationship with the EU.

Out of the 7 tribes, it is the more populist leaning ones that look like the weaker parts of Keir Starmer’s coalition. The tribes that look most at odds with the rest of Starmer’s coalition are the ‘Stop the Boats’ of Reform UK waverers and ‘Generation Labour’, the under-34s considering the Green party. Stop the Boats are particularly out of kilter with the rest of Labour’s coalition. They are the only group to have a positive opinion of Nigel Farage, the only group to think that Donald Trump winning the US election would be good for the UK, and are the tribe least positive about the Labour party. 66% of Stop the Boats say that stopping illegal migration and small boats is in their top 3 priorities compared to 6% of Starmer’s Troops who make up Labour’s core support.

Jim Murphy, founder of Arden Strategies said: “As Keir Starmer reaches the halfway mark of his first 100 days in office, after the biggest win of any party for a generation, our poll examines the wants and needs of the voters who put him there. United in their overwhelmingly positive view of the Prime Minister, as well as a demand for investment in the NHS, this new coalition of voters are eager to see results and fast.

“The 7 tribes we have identified may hold diverse priorities; from climate change to housing, immigration to front line public services, economic growth to tax and spend. But they are united in their positivity about Labour and the key players in Starmer’s Cabinet, who they have entrusted to deliver change.”

METHODOLOGY

J.L. Partners polled a nationally representative sample of 1,044 2024 Labour voters. The sample was quota-ed and weighted to ensure representative data on gender, age, region, education, 2019 general election vote and political attention (British Election Study estimates). Data was then weighted back to nationally representative targets on the same variables. Fieldwork occurred on 1st to 5th August 2024. There is a 2.1% margin of error on headline figures.

More information is available here.

For all enquiries please contact Kate Conway at [email protected] or Scarlett Maguire at [email protected].