New International Arrival Controls in China Aim to Prevent COVID-19 Second Wave

Shane Bigham, anchor for CRI’s The Beijing Hour, Interviews Josef Gregory Mahoney

March 25, 2020

Full Remarks

1 Why is it now necessary to step up prevention of imported cases in major Chinese cities like Beijing?

Reportedly, new cases in China are being driven now by overseas arrivals. This is the feared second wave, the pandemic coming back. There are three major reasons to stop this.

The first, obviously, is the prevention of morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19.

The second is that while we have learned a lot, there’s still a lot that we don’t know about this disease. For example, we know that it mutates, so now that it’s a pandemic, how many strains are out there in the world? Perhaps whatever comes back to China is somewhat different than previously experienced. This creates all sorts of new questions if not challenges, including that some could get re-infected, that treatment protocols might change, case fatality rates might go up or down, that effective vaccines might be delayed, and so on.

Third, economically, no one can afford continued disruptions and longer-term uncertainties. For each of these reasons, and others, it’s vital to stop COVID-19’s return.

2 How much damage could there be if imported cases lead to local infection?

There are four types of dangers associated with reemergence.

First, as I’ve already noted, is that it would increase morbidity and mortality, which is bad enough, but uncontrolled, as we know, can also lead to all sorts of systemic dangers.

Second is that it would undermine political trust, which is vital for continued suppression and recovery.

Third is that it would undermine international confidence in how China has handled this so far, with some countries trying to emulate Chinese methods, and then also having to worry about global second waves while some are still in worst days of the first wave.

Fourth would be continued economic damage, which poses its own set of risks to health and national well-being.

In fact, the economic damage caused by COVID-19 is still incalculable. The costs to China’s domestic economy are massive, the costs to the global economy exponentially larger. But the key point is that China has taken the lead in containment and control, and it has established a model for others to emulate. It’s the world’s second largest economy and manufacturing backbone. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that China needs to serve as a key foundation for global containment and economic recovery efforts. If Beijing is unable ultimately to do this, then then the whole world is in serious trouble, not just China. Therefore, continuing to contain and control is vital for everyone.

3 How can China balance between production resumption and prevention of new COVID-19 cases.

The Chinese system is one that allows for greater centralized control, but also local adjustment and experimentation. It is results-oriented and limits domestic political blame games and indirection seen in some multiparty systems, where infighting and indecision can undercut efficacy. In terms of political theory, we might say that the Chinese system is “crisis-seeking,” in the sense that it was created to solve the political and developmental crises that arose during the Century of Humiliation, and it has consistently adjusted itself to solve whatever crises or problems that have emerged on the path to rejuvenation.

Consequently, if anyone can solve this current crisis and get back to work, then the Chinese can. Clearly, doing so will require leveraging the system’s unique strengths and abilities, while compensating for its weaknesses as well as the uncertainties associated with a global pandemic and a changeable disease. Nevertheless, I think people need to have reasonable expectations. We shouldn’t be surprised if we see some second waves in some Chinese locations. One way China can prepare for this is to keep people vigilant and on their toes but without cowering in fear. Finally, make sure national response teams that can deploy quickly to different locations if necessary, and keep reporting accurate and transparent. You know, some estimates hold that we might be dealing with this pandemic globally for the next couple of years. We’re going to have to learn how to limit this enemy while also living with it.

This raises one more point that should be considered, and that’s not letting go of China’s economic reform agenda. There will be powerful incentives to halt or slow reforms, and perhaps some caution is prudent. However, this crisis presents opportunities for needed changes that will help China survive in the future, and some of these reforms will increase goodwill with trading partners who are now struggling more than China is and whose health will be vital for China’s future as well.

4 Compared with total travel bans by some countries, are China's preventive measures more friendly to international visitors?

Friendly is both the right and wrong word. Despite some of the negative things reported in the press, and of course some of these have some truth to them, I don’t think anyone is necessarily trying to be friendly or unfriendly when it comes to bans or restrictions. But even if they are we shouldn’t be too focused on such sensitivities presently. People need and expect results, and in times of crises, you have to prioritize responsibilities. In fact, there are four things to add to this.

The first is that China has long been ranked as one of the friendliest destinations for international visitors, and clearly this has been a positive aspect that not only reflects well on China, it has also served China’s development and advancement in many ways.

The second concerns reports of people trying to get to China because China has done a better job at control and containment. And in fact, China is taking care of new arrivals, and while this may seem inconvenient or self-serving, it’s certainly not unfriendly.

Third, Chinese in some other countries have been treated poorly, some facing bans, some facing discrimination, and so on, so it’s natural to ask, well, hasn’t China done better, hasn’t it been friendlier than others, comparatively?

Fourth, China has been reaching out to other countries to help them with them outbreak.

So it’s not surprising, given these points, that you would ask about friendliness, but more the appropriate terms are “responsibility” and “being humane,” and understanding that we’re inescapably all in this together. The extent to which China can set the model for these is the extent to which China will fulfill higher order values and set the tone for its own people and globally, particularly at a time when some countries are fixated on moving in the opposite direction.