New Habits, Better Deals, and Why Intuition is Just Processed Data

Whether you're building better habits, navigating agreements, or making product decisions, one truth remains: success isn’t just about what you do, but when and how you do it. Fresh starts leverage the power of timing to make change easier, real compromise ensures both sides feel valued rather than resentful, and even the best product intuition is simply deep experience distilled from data. Whether in life or product design, recognizing these dynamics can help you create lasting impact... not just in the moment, but far beyond it.

??? Behavioral Blueprints ???

Takeaway: Change is easier when tied to a natural milestone, use fresh starts strategically in both personal habits and product design.

We’re almost into March, and there’s one thing you rarely hear people talk about anymore: New Year’s resolutions. For most, unfortunately, they’ve already faded into the background, replaced by old habits and new distractions. The few who have succeeded no longer feel the need to talk about them, because their resolutions have become habits, seamlessly integrated into their lives.

Is that the sign of a real fresh start? When change is successful, it stops being new and simply becomes part of who you are.

The idea of fresh starts was coined by behavioral scientist Katy Milkman, describing how milestone events., like the start of a new year, a birthday, or a major life transition, create natural moments for behavioral change. While building habits is always difficult, timing them with these milestones makes success more likely. Fresh starts aren’t a guarantee, but they’re a powerful tool in the behavioral toolkit.

In product, fresh starts occur whenever a major update launches or a lifecycle event happens, like a subscription renewal or a rebrand. Recognizing these moments, product designers can leverage them to encourage new behaviors: exploring new features, engaging with content in a different way, or reinforcing desired actions.

The next time you want to develop a habit, whether in your own life or within a product, consider when you introduce it. The right timing might be the difference between another failed attempt and a lasting change.

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??? Frameworks for Everything ???

Takeaway: A real agreement isn’t just about acceptance, it’s about ensuring both sides feel like they’ve won something meaningful.

The difference between getting someone to agree and getting them to align with an outcome can define the long-term success of any decision.

Every disagreement ends with some form of resolution. But how each party feels about that resolution can shape the future of the relationship… whether in business, friendships, or personal life. One way I think about this is through the lens of compromise versus capitulation.

Compromise happens when both sides find an agreement they feel good about, where each person walks away with something of value.

Capitulation happens when one side feels like they’re surrendering, accepting an outcome just to move forward.

On the surface, both can look like mutual agreement. But over time, how someone perceives the decision will be shaped by how they felt in the moment. When someone capitulates, they may not immediately show resentment, but internally, they’re likely keeping score. If one side continues to "lose," frustration builds, and even seemingly small disagreements can escalate into major conflicts.

I’ve started questioning this dynamic in all my relationships. At work, when someone accepts my research recommendation, are they doing so because they believe in it? Or just to avoid a debate? In friendships, is the other person genuinely happy with a plan, or are they just going along with it?

Sometimes, letting yourself capitulate intentionally, giving the other person a win, can help maintain balance. But if capitulation becomes a pattern, it’s a sign something deeper needs to change.

?? Beyond the Build ??

Takeaway: The best decisions aren’t made by intuition or data alone, intuition is simply expertise shaped by a deep foundation of data.

A few weeks ago, I had the chance to ask Marty Cagan, one of Silicon Valley’s most prominent product thinkers, about his perspective on intuition versus evidence in product development.

Marty often talks about product sense, the ability to deeply understand the market, customer needs, and the right problems to solve. I wanted to know where he sees product sense on the spectrum between intuition and data.

His response surprised me.

He doesn’t really believe in pure product intuition. Instead, he sees data as the real foundation. Product sense, he explained, isn’t about gut feelings, it’s about internalizing huge amounts of data over time. The best product leaders don’t just trust their instincts; they’ve spent years absorbing customer insights, market dynamics, and behavioral patterns that inform their decisions.

This resonates with me. I’ve always believed that data is better than intuition alone, but I now see the distinction more clearly: intuition emerges from exposure to enough data. Good leaders develop a sense for what works, but that sense isn’t magic, it’s built through experience, analysis, and iteration.

Going forward, I’ll shift how I talk about this. Rather than framing it as "data is better than intuition," I’ll say: data + intuition is the path forward. Strong product decisions start with a belief, refine it with evidence, and then take action, while staying open to updating that belief as new information emerges.

The key isn’t choosing between intuition and evidence. It’s recognizing that intuition is simply evidence digested over time.

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