A new frontier in the fight against climate change

@thereal jeffbezoz

Dear Jeff,

A climate emergency is upon us. Governments, businesses and consumers around the world are at last beginning to take action to avoid the most extreme human and environmental costs of global warming. In some countries progress has been made towards slowing the rate of GHG emissions and adapting to the effects of climate change.

But on our present course, it doesn’t appear that these two levers are going to be enough. By 2100 a global average temperature rise over pre-industrial levels of between 2-6 degrees centigrade may result in environmental costs that are too extreme to mitigate for most people. A third lever is needed.

A space race with purpose

Vast areas of film mirrors in space have been proposed as a complementary solution, perhaps buying us some time by shading a few percentage points off total global solar incident energy. This is not a new idea, and has been proposed back in 2006 by Roger Angel at the University of Arizona and more recently by the HELIOS project.

To be effective, the required area of this approach is mind-bogglingly large and - since there is no direct economic output, only an indirect shared benefit - it is not an endeavour that is likely to attract the necessary investment from private enterprise.

An alternative approach is to utilise a constellation of solar panels, rather than mirrors, in order to produce a useful direct economic output - liquid fuels for rocket propulsion - with partial and controllable solar shading of earth an external economic benefit of this new primary industry.

A vision with a plan

We can get this done in my lifetime. Here’s how:

PHASE 1: PROOF OF CONCEPT, 2020-2030

Step 1) Humans return to the moon and stay there, using newly developed technologies for thrust, habitation and continuous operational presence on the lunar surface and in lunar orbit.

Step 2) Establish pilot scale ice mining and electrolysis operations at the lunar south pole, using currently available technologies from (1) to manufacture liquid hydrogen and oxygen rocket fuel.

Step 3) Using lunar-generated liquid rocket fuel deploy a first prototype photo-voltaic ice-to-fuel (PVI2F) module, supplied with a small batch of lunar ice, in solar-stationary orbit between the earth and the sun, also using currently available technologies from (1). Inner Lagrange Point L1 is about four times as far from earth as the moon – no mean feat, but not much harder to reach than the earth, from the moon. Demonstrate positional stability, H2/O2 production, and a variable incidence angle to permit the (infinitesimally small) earth-shading effect to be modulated.

PHASE 2: PILOT SPACE SUPPLY CHAIN, 2030-2040

Step 4) Establish pilot PVI2F manufacturing operations (MO1) on the lunar surface using an economically maximised % of mass from locally mined resources.

Step 5) Using lunar generated propellant, deliver and install further series production PVI2F modules alongside the first, along with a larger batch of lunar ice as raw material, and using the first production of H2 / O2 to support the return leg.

Step 6) Establish round-trips to deliver lunar ice and install further PVI2F modules, returning with surplus fuel which can be sold to Elon for his Mars trips.

PHASE 3: EXOFACTORY SCALE UP, 2040-2050

Step 7) Establish automated manufacturing (MO2) operations for production of additional supply chain craft, fuel storage, ice mining and PVI2F equipment.

Step 8) Establish automated manufacturing (MO3) operations for production of additional MO2 equipment. Optimise the balance of productive resource across MO1, MO2 and MO3 to maximise the rate of solar shading deployment through to 2100.

PHASE 4: EXTEND TO ASTEROID BELT, 2050-2060

Step 9) Extend the supply chain to retrieve ice-rich materials from the asteroid belt, together with other high value metal and mineral resources for MO1, MO2 and MO3 and other space based industries in addition to those on the Earth, Moon and Mars.

Step 10) Use the economic surpluses from 6 & 9 to establish a rapidly expanding industrial base for the coming era of human activity and exploration beyond Earth, in turn providing a more sustainably regulated and assured climate on our home planet.

I realise this may seem like a tall order, especially (1) which requires a raft of new technologies and frankly a bit of a leap of faith. However I’m led to believe that NASA already have this one covered.

Sam

https://www.pnas.org/content/103/46/17184