New Farming Frontiers

In the 2000s, fields in Manitoba province of Canada were sown with cold-weather crops like wheat, peas, and canola (rapeseed). Dense staples were very rate (examples - maize, and soya). But they were more profitable, and today, maize and soya are seen everywhere. Canadian agriculture has changed.?

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In Canadian agriculture, financial firms buy fields and lease them to farmers. They are betting on climate change to raise asset prices, as farmers will grow more valuable crops than traditionally grown. Climate change is turning frigid and unproductive lands into fertile ones. Great harm, however, is possible.?

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Since 1700, cropland and pastureland areas have grown hugely, worldwide, by five times. Most were since the 1950s, and the Green Revolution since the 1960s, as the use of chemical fertilizers, more productive varieties of rice and grains, pesticides, and machinery raised production. Then came genetic engineering, Information Technology (IT), and computers. This caused yields to rise even more.

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Since the 1990s, rising temperatures began affecting yields, and since the sensitivity of agricultural production rises as temperature rises, food production will rapidly be harmed. Tropics-based farmers will be hurt the most. For each degree rise, maize, wheat, and rice yields will approximately drop by 7%, 6%, and 3% respectively. These three crops, that is, maize, wheat, and rice, supply 65% of all calories consumed by humans globally! Global population will rise to 970 crores by 2064, and then drop sharply till 2100. The rising middle classes are demanding a wider variety of food and eating more of those.

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Global warming will expand the tropics, and change rainfall patterns in sub-tropics. Since the poles are warming, high latitude areas are opening up quickly (warming at twice the global rate). Crops will move pole-wards.

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In the past 50 years, farmers have changed their crops, based on rainfall changes. Maize went from America's South-East to the upper - Midwest. Wheat went north. Soybeans (65% of all proteins fed to animals) went both north and south, due to new breeds and advancements. Wine grapes and fruits have moved north.?

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The intrepid are now putting their money on lands that no one is farming today. Today, in the boreal (a biome with coniferous forests) region (south of the Arctic Circle), just 33% of the land has a temperature high enough to support oats and barley farming. By 2099, it could be 75%. So in Sweden, farming land will go from 8% to 41%, and in Finland, from 51% to 83%.

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Those who value boreal forests are alarmed at their being turned into farmlands. Plus, farming will release fresh carbon from the soils. But there is a catch - in northern areas, forests absorb more heat as snow is below the trees, whereas open farms reflect back more heat (covered with snow). The clearing of boreal forests, however, will harm biodiversity, the lives of forest dwellers (indigenous ones), and so on.?

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President Vladimir Putin is happy with this warming, as people are now wearing fewer fur coats, and growing more wheat! His 2020 "national action plan on climate change" gave an outline for expanding farming. Russia is now one of the world's largest wheat producers, due to warm weather! It is leasing large tracts of land in the far east to Japanese, South Korean, and Chinese investors for soybean growing, and China imports most (reducing dependence on the United States). Governments of Canadian Newfoundland and Labrador are promoting the expansion of agriculture (into lands covered by forests).?

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It is not just a greenhouse gas, but the raw material for photosynthesis by which plants grow. So more carbon dioxide means more growth, and the past 100 years have actually seen more "global greening". So crop yields may be boosted now too, but bigger crops may not mean more nutritious crops.?

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Climate change affects rainfall patterns, affecting plant growth. So more northern areas getting warmer now may lack enough water for farming (hence, intensive irrigation is needed). Some may get too much. And pests and pathogens too spread with warm weather. The best quality soil is at lower latitudes, not far northern ones.

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Such frontier farms will find it tough to make new infrastructure (existing pipelines breaking due to melting permafrost) and will attract many foreign workers (politically a problem). So overall, the rich world will benefit to some extent by new farming lands opening up, but the poor world will be hurt badly (reducing export incomes).?

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New ways to help crops withstand higher temperatures that today are needed, by clever crop breeding, better irrigation, and protection from severe weather. Food waste must go down, from the present 33% (UN FAO Estimate)! These alone will help maintain the food systems of today, else it may break down.?

- Aindri Abhishek Singh

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