New EU Report Endeavours to Quantify the Sudanese Disaster

The war in Sudan is one of the most overlooked disasters today. It is often assumed that the only way to get people to relate to humanitarian disasters is to put a human face on the suffering. However, some situations unfold on such a scale that personal connections can obscure the true enormity of the situation. Therefore, on the occasion of the European Union's Asylum Agency (EUAA) releasing their latest Country Focus report on Sudan, I will present the conflict in numbers.

"In war, truth is the first casualty"

The EUAA has compiled a very impressive synthesis report, gathering an almost overwhelming amount of research, reports, and other sources about the situation in Sudan, from the outbreak of the conflict in April 2023 to January 2024. However, as the report itself clearly states, these are the best and often very conservative estimates of the conflict's size and human cost.

From day one, the conflicting parties have clamped down hard on both media and information sharing. It is these sources, especially local media, from which many international observers and organizations get their information. Between April and September alone, surveys found that more than two-thirds of the country's already very small media sector had been threatened, and over 80% of the country's journalists and other media personnel wanted to leave their region or even the country. This has significantly impacted recording combat, abuses, and deaths.

Furthermore, access to telecommunications and the internet was severely restricted or completely shut down after the conflict broke out. Social media has played a crucial role in the civilian population's ability to navigate the conflict, but there is widespread misinformation on such platforms and numerous examples of misinformation being used to lead civilians into traps. Many international organizations reporting from Sudan and surrounding countries have great difficulty having very little personnel on the ground, and the report's authors therefore point out that information from the large international NGOs cannot be assumed to be entirely accurate.

In other words, there is no doubt that there is enormous uncertainty and continued large gaps in this massive conflict.

The Statistics of the Humanitarian Situation Overwhelm

The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) estimates that Sudan has a population of about 48.1 million, and more than half of them need humanitarian support. At least according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), which has come up with the record-high estimate that 24.8 million Sudanese will need humanitarian support in 2024. In December 2023, about nine months after the outbreak of the conflict, UNOCHA estimated that about seven million out of 18.1 million needy had received humanitarian support. However, the EUAA report suggests that this appears to be an optimistic estimate, and the consultancy firm Humanitarian Outcomes estimated that just 16% of the needy, fewer than four million, had received help from local or international organizations.

Sudan had already, before April 2023, a huge number of internally displaced persons (IDPs), about 3.8 million, of which almost 80% were believed to have lived in camps in the Darfur region. By the end of December 2023, the UN's Migration Organization (IOM) estimated that an additional 6,144,363 people had been internally displaced in Sudan. This means that there are now nearly 11 million IDPs in Sudan, almost the same number as in Ukraine, Gaza, and the DRC combined. Fifty-four percent of the internally displaced are under 18 years old. The internally displaced primarily come from the Khartoum region, 57%, and the Darfur region, 32.4%. Again, it is the war-torn Darfur region, with estimates of around 40%, that is the largest recipient of IDPs. There continue to be reports of attacks on IDP camps, especially in Darfur, where non-Arab displaced persons are particularly vulnerable.

Additionally, enormous numbers of people have fled the country. The report highlights figures that indicate that 1,780,295 people have moved out of Sudan between April and December 2023. Of these, 63% were Sudanese citizens. According to these figures – provided by IOM, UNHCR, and individual states – 682,499 went to Chad, 542,199 to South Sudan, 415,000 to Egypt, 108,121 to Ethiopia, 26,421 to the Central African Republic, and 6,055 to Libya. However, the figures for Libya are disputed and the report describes that some sources suggest that up to 800,000 people may have moved to Libya from Sudan during the period.

Extreme Food Insecurity and Disease

By the end of January, UNOCHA estimated that 17.7 million people in Sudan were living with a high degree of acute food insecurity, while 4.9 million, just over 10% of Sudan's population, were in an "emergency" to "catastrophe" situation. Additionally, there is a lack of access to fresh and clean drinking water for large parts of Sudan's population.

Especially vulnerable are the large IDP populations in camps and more informally in and around urban centers. For example, Doctors Without Borders estimated that a child died every other hour due to malnutrition and disease in the Zamzam camp, located 14 kilometers south of the town of El Fasher, in northern Darfur. The situation is expected to be far worse now.

Hunger is rarely the actual cause of death during famine and hunger outbreaks. The actual killer is the epidemic outbreaks and other underlying untreated diseases among the malnourished. It is therefore extremely worrying that it is estimated that 65% of Sudan's population did not have access to medical care or other forms of health facilities by the end of January. Before April 15, there had been some success in combating ongoing outbreaks of cholera, dengue fever, measles, and malaria. Illustratively, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated at the end of January that 10,500 people had died of cholera, but since the organization is only present in limited parts of Sudan, the real number of dead is likely significantly higher.

Both international aid organizations and often far more effective local civil society organizations and NGOs are severely impacted by resource shortages, and resistance, abuses, and attacks by the warring parties, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) being particularly notorious.

Abuses on Civilians and Death Toll

Reporting and collecting data on battles, attacks, deaths among combatants and civilians, abuses, and persecution are profoundly affected by the lack of free and present press. For many of the internationally accredited sources for reporting conflict developments, such as ACLED (The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project), there is a problematic dependency on local press. For example, ACLED reports that between April 15, 2023, and January 31, 2024, there were 696 security "incidents" in the Darfur region, resulting in 4,997 deaths. However, sources cited by the UN's own Expert Panel suggest that between 10,000 and 15,000 people died in El Geneina alone.

It is, therefore, not possible to provide reliable estimates of how many have died in the conflict, but various estimates, including ACLED’s, are included in the EUAA report. The same uncertainty also exists concerning sexual violence, ethnic persecution and cleansing, forced recruitment, use of child soldiers, torture, political persecution, and many other areas. However, it is well-known that all these forms of human rights violations occur very frequently and are deliberately used by both parties in the war.

Especially women and non-Arab ethnic groups are subject to horrific abuses on a massive scale, with RSF (Rapid Support Forces) being particularly notorious for ethnic cleansing and sexual violence. According to UNOCHA, RSF forces were responsible for at least 73% of all cases of rape or gang rape, while other sources estimate the figure as high as 84%. It is assumed that less than 2% of all cases of sexual violence in Sudan are reported.

Ethnic violence is most prominent — although by no means limited to — the Darfur region, where especially the Massalit population groups are vulnerable. Reports of tens of thousands of deaths and satellite photos have documented the total destruction of countless villages and residential areas. A new report from Human Rights Watch documents the abuses against the Massalits in depth.

The data presented in the EUAA report, with great integrity, manages to concretize the extreme severity of the situation, and at the same time, it acknowledges its own many limitations and the great uncertainties associated with reporting on such conflicts. Major efforts are underway to secure more aid for Sudan, including from many large UN organizations, but it is hard to believe it will be sufficient. It is commendable that Denmark has chosen to allocate 100 million Danish kroner to help the Sudanese population, but in light of the conflict's catastrophic size, it can easily seem like a disproportionately small amount.

The full report can be found on the EUAA website.