The New Era of Trumpulance Has Already Started

(3 mins read)

Last year, I attended a meeting from the European Risk Management Council, where its founder, Dr. Evgueni Ivantsov , first coined the term Trumpulance. In risk management circles, this term refers to turbulence or volatility induced by Donald Trump, his allies, or members of his administration.

Recent events suggest that we are already witnessing a resurgence of Trumpulance. Elon Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur and vocal Trump ally, made inflammatory comments about UK politics, disregarding diplomatic norms, and foreshadowing a volatile period ahead. Even before the Trump administration has officially returned to power, political shots are being fired already!

I just re-read the first chapter of Michael Wolff’s Fire and Fury. A book that vividly describes the first 9 months of chaos of the first Trump presidency. A period as volatile and fiery as the man himself. The second sentence of the book’s prologue reads:

"With the inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20, 2017, the United States entered the eye of the most extraordinary political storm since at least Watergate. It is as if we are back at the exact same juncture today.

We all remember the colourful cast of characters at the time: Chief Strategist Steve Bannon (fired), the constant presence of Ivanka Trump and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner in the background (aka 'Jarvanka'), the struggling press secretary and communications director Hope Hicks (resigned), communications director Anthony Scaramucci (fired after 10 days in the job), etc. etc. And of course the chaotic and high-profile decisions that shook the world; the firing of an FBI director, the signing of an executive order for a Muslim travel ban, pulling out of the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran Nuclear Deal, the downplaying and late response to the Covid pandemic (“it’s just the flu”), etc. etc. This was topped off by the endless leaks of very unfortunate remarks from the president ranging from his views about women in general, asking personal favours from foreign country leaders, or referring to various sovereign nations, especially African ones, as “shitholes”.

To be clear, I take no personal political side or position. It was a difficult, and binary, choice for the Americans in last year’s election. Everyone must decide for themselves whether they think Donald Trump is the right person to lead one of the most powerful nations of the world during this unprecedented time of geopolitical tensions and volatility. Time will tell.

But, from a Risk Manager’s perspective, my assessment is that this time around, the President is better prepared and the administration will be better organised. On the other hand, if recent events are any indication of what lies ahead, we can undoubtedly anticipate a substantial wave of Trumpulance. Every Risk Manager is well-advised to have Trumpulance firmly on the risk register and have assessed how Trumpulance may impact business and strategy for their organisation in 2025 and beyond. One thing is certain, we are in for a bumpy ride…

#RiskManagement #Trumpulance #Ledership #Volatility #Politics #HorizonRisks #EmergingRisks