New economic index: TP Sheet Price Index (2-ply)

Latest news:

Future price: Opening the week down at $0.62 (per sheet)

Benchmark price (West Marietta Intermediate) $0.64 (per sheet)

Outlook: Increased supply will depress and eventually stabilize prices.

Overall we're seeing the price fluctuations decrease as supply increases and folks who hoarded product earlier are now dumping their excess on the market. We expect to see further downward price pressure at the beginning of the week. Complicating the price picture is the refusal of some retailers to take returns, which will force more lower-priced product onto the market.

Still seeing some price spikes in outlying markets, with reports of up to $50 charged for a pack of 9 rolls; no indication if this was a 1-ply or a 2-ply trade. There is also heavy trading in 1-ply alternatives, with significant price variations across all markets.

There are rumors that some major employers are replacing their current stock option programs with 12-packs of 1-ply for 1 share of class B stock. This seems like a very good deal for the company, not so good for employees as the price per sheet is expected to drop dramatically once people figure out that newsprint is a good substitute.

For now our TP investment outlook is hold - that is, hold onto what stock you have. We expect to downgrade our advice to sell in the next few days, as we are anticipating that new production will flood the market with cheap imitations, putting huge pressure on prices.