A New Decision-Making Process for Founders

These days the founders I work with are navigating unprecedented uncertainty. As I coach them through decisions, I have found that the tried and true decision making processes just aren't designed to address the levels of external uncertainty and internal emotional stress my founders are dealing with in Q324.

In fact, I think we could all use a fresh decision-making approach that works in a low trust, rapid change environment.

Inspired, I enrolled four of my clients from different industries to brainstorm a better decision making model. Conor runs a A-list AI developer team for a big ass company. Amil is the CEO of a pioneering mental heath service startup, Brett stated a B2C supplement company that enjoys 8 figure revenue. Then there is Matt, A serial WEB3 engineer founder based in South East Asia. All brilliant, all facing tough decisions, all wanting a better approach to decision making. Together, we brainstormed a new approach we like so much that I took the time to write this article in hopes that it helps others too.

I will now provide you with a TLDR summary of our model, then a step by step how to with examples. Finally I will conclude with a quick summary of 6 respected decision making models you should know that are very good at specific things.

In approximately 9 minutes from now you will have a fresh decision-making tool box suited for 2025.

The TLDR: What Sets the Thriving Founders Method Apart?

Before we met I analyzed the top 7 decision making process to make sure we weren't reinventing the wheel. Where conventional decision-making models rely heavily on linear logic or stable variables, our process emphasizes self-awareness, emotional sobriety and stakeholder collaboration. These often-overlooked elements anchor the approach in real-time adaptability, offering a more human-centered, inclusive path to decision-making—especially suited to the unpredictable nature of today's business landscape.|

Add These Elements to Your Decision Making Process

Optimal Headspace as a Foundation: The process begins with emotional and mental clarity. Instead of rushing headlong into decisions, we start accessing a state of equanimity, this ensures that one can avoid impulses driven by fear or excitement.

Recognition of Personal Decision-Making Styles: Understanding your unique decision-making style—whether data-driven, intuitive, or a mix of both—helps you select the right tools and avoid blind spots. Review your Myers-Briggs personality type. This self-awareness is often missing in traditional models.

Stakeholder Buy-In at Key Stages: Collaborative decision-making isn’t just about gathering input; it’s about building real commitment. Involving stakeholders at strategic points not only brings diverse perspectives but also creates alignment for smoother execution once the decision is made.

Vetting Assumptions: Dig deep into the underlying beliefs driving decisions, rigorously test them to prevent costly missteps—an often-underemphasized step in traditional models.

Ideal Use Cases for the Thriving Founders Method

This approach shines in situations marked by high stakes, high emotion, complexity, and rapid change, such as:

• Strategic Pivoting: When exploring a fundamental shift in product or market direction, this model’s layered approach helps founders weigh risks and achieve consensus with precision.
• Innovation Exploration: For ventures validating unconventional ideas, this process encourages open brainstorming while vetting assumptions to avoid attachment to a single outcome.
• Leadership Alignment: In startups with diverse leadership styles, this process creates alignment on key decisions, reducing risks of unilateral thinking.

The Thriving Founders Decision-Making Process isn’t just a series of steps; it’s a mindset shift that blends emotional clarity, collaborative spirit, and analytical rigor. By embracing this approach, leadership teams can navigate uncertain waters more confidently, making decisions that are easy to adapt to changing circumstances.

I will now provide you with a step by step example of the Thriving Founders process. Then conclude with a quick summary of 6 respected decision making models you should know.

These six models offer supplementary strategies for specific decision-making scenarios. For instance, you might start with Vroom-Yetton to determine the ideal level of team involvement, then apply OODA for agility or Six Thinking Hats for diverse perspectives.

Step by Step, the Thriving Founders Method

Step 1: Get in the Right Headspace

Description: Before diving in, take time to clear your mind of distractions. Fear, excitement, and stress can cloud judgment. Engage in activities that center you—meditation, exercise, or a walk in nature. Strive for a state of equanomus non-attachment. For complex decisions, revisit your optimal headspace at each stage.

Example: Conor shared that, for him, meditation or intense exercise helps achieve mental clarity and emotional equanimity. In this state, he often finds that apparent "decisions" were distractions from more foundational issues. His first question is: "Do I even need to make this decision?" This saves him time and energy by refocusing his attention on what matters.

Step 2: Clearly Define the Decision to Be Made

Description: Pin down the core decision. Define the problem, its importance, and desired outcomes. Avoid diffusing focus by tackling multiple decisions simultaneously.

Example: Amil, a mental health startup CEO, was torn between pursuing a new revenue opportunity that could diversify his revenue and sticking with his current product line. By clarifying the decision as “expanding into a new service area or not,” he sharpened his focus and streamlined the process.

Step 3: Identify Your Decision-Making Style

Description: Reflect on how you naturally make decisions. Do you prioritize intuition or analysis? Consider your Myers-Briggs type for insights on biases and strengths in decision-making. Aim to balance instinct with logic.

Example: Michael, an ENFJ, realized he often follows intuition and sometimes overlooks thorough analysis. Recognizing this, he incorporated a structured, analytical step to balance his instincts with data-backed insights.

Step 4: Choose Your Decision-Making Approach

Description: Based on your style, choose a method that complements it. This can involve combining intuition with structured tools, like decision matrices, to ensure a balanced approach.

Example: Conor prefers blending instinct with data. He records a stream-of-consciousness voice memo in his optimal headspace, then uses AI to analyze the insights and structure his thinking logically so that he can vet his ideas. This blend keeps him grounded in both instinct and evidence.

Step 5: Gather Relevant Information

Description: Compile the necessary data—internal insights, customer feedback, market trends, and expert opinions. The goal is to create a well-rounded knowledge base to support your choice.

Example: Amil gathered reports on market trends, financial projections, and customer feedback, creating a comprehensive foundation for evaluating the decision.

Step 6: Evaluate Risk

Description: While maintaining an optimal mindset, review the potential benefits and risks of the decision. Consider whether the possible upside outweighs the downside. If the decision doesn't look promising, explore whether adjustments might make it viable. It's possible that you will decide to stop your process here.

Example: After Matt ran the process through these steps he realized that the direction he was inspired to go was not viable. He dropped it and moved on to what revealed itself as most important.

Step 7: Start the Stakeholder Buy-In Process

Description: If your idea survives to to this stage, it's time to engage key stakeholders to gather insights and secure buy-in. Early involvement can enhance the quality of the decision and ensure smoother execution.

Example: Amil held a meeting to discuss his findings with co-founders and execs. By presenting his groundwork while seeking their input, he fostered commitment and gained valuable perspectives for refining his approach.

Step 8: Brainstorm Alternatives

Description: Organize a brainstorming session to identify alternatives and vet assumptions. Encourage non-attachment to personal ideas and welcome even “bad” ideas to spark creativity. Select the approach that aligns with your team’s capabilities.

Example: Conor’s team brainstormed different strategic directions and the most efficient way to vet the key assumptions. By remaining open to diverse ideas, they identified a clear path forward while laying out necessary due diligence steps.

Step 9: Vet Key Assumptions

Description: Review the assumptions driving your decision. Identify the critical assumptions that could impact the outcome, and find ways to validate or challenge them through research, testing, or consulting experts.

Example: Amil's strategy depended on demand in a new market segment. Each team member took on an assumption to validate.

Optional Step: Use Decision-Making Tools

Description: Use tools like decision matrices, SWOT analysis, or pros/cons lists to provide structure that is easy for you and the team to review. These tools can clarify priorities and reveal areas that may need further attention.

Example: Michael utilized a weighted decision matrix to clarify what they knew, what they think they new, and what they knew that they didn't know. This high level view of the process results up to this point enabled him to decide if they should make the decision to proceed, or not.

Step 10: Make Your Decision

Description: After completing each stage, make your choice.

Execution: Set Milestones and Be Ready to Pivot

Description: Develop an execution strategy with milestones tied to key assumptions. At each milestone, evaluate progress and be open to adjusting the plan based on new insights.

Example: Conor scheduled regular check-ins through out the week to evaluate progress against milestones, allowing his team to adapt swiftly if data suggested a pivot.

Key Takeaways of the Thriving Founders Process

• Self-Awareness Matters: Understand your natural decision-making tendencies and adjust as needed.
• Mindset is Key: Being in the right headspace reduces impulsive errors.
• Stakeholder Engagement: Collaboration enriches decisions and generates essential buy-in.
• Vet Your Assumptions: Success hinges on validating key assumptions early.

By following the Thriving Founders Decision-Making Process, you can foster a thoughtful, comprehensive approach that ensures clarity, minimizes risk, and maximizes the likelihood of achieving your desired outcomes.

Bonus: Six Established Decision-Making Models to Consider

For added depth, here are six widely recognized decision-making models, each bringing unique strengths that can complement the Thriving Founders Decision-Making Process. Use these models individually or mix and match them to suit your decision-making style and needs.

1. The Rational Decision-Making Model

Overview: The Rational Decision-Making Model is a structured, step-by-step approach emphasizing logical, data-driven decisions. Ideal for scenarios where you have ample information and time to weigh all options thoroughly.

Steps:

1. Identify the problem.
2. Gather relevant information.
3. Identify alternatives.
4. Weigh the evidence for each alternative.
5. Choose the best alternative.
6. Implement the decision.
7. Review the decision and assess its impact.

Unique Strength: The model’s emphasis on objectivity and comprehensive analysis is especially helpful for complex, high-stakes decisions where emotion needs to be minimized.

2. The Vroom-Yetton Decision Model

Overview: This model focuses on determining the optimal level of stakeholder involvement based on the type of decision being made. It’s particularly useful when deciding whether to make a decision independently or collaboratively.

How it Works: The model provides a flowchart-style decision tree that guides leaders through questions related to the situation, such as:

• Does the decision impact the whole team?
• Is there enough expertise among stakeholders?

The answers help decide the level of participation needed—ranging from autocratic (independent) decisions to group-based collaboration.

Unique Strength: It helps leaders decide when to involve others, creating a balance between efficient decision-making and valuable team input.

3. The OODA Loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act)

Overview: Originally developed for military strategy, the OODA Loop is ideal for environments that require agility and quick decision-making. It encourages continuous observation, rapid orientation, quick decision-making, and immediate action.

Steps:

1. Observe: Gather information on the current situation.
2. Orient: Analyze this information to understand its context.
3. Decide: Determine the best course of action.
4. Act: Implement the decision and observe results.

Unique Strength: This model’s speed and adaptability make it valuable for fast-paced industries where agility and quick response times are essential.

4. The PDCA Cycle (Plan-Do-Check-Act)

Overview: The PDCA Cycle is an iterative process used for continuous improvement. It’s a great fit for companies focusing on long-term growth, quality improvement, or incremental change.

Steps:

1. Plan: Define objectives and plan how to achieve them.
2. Do: Execute the plan on a small scale.
3. Check: Evaluate the results and identify areas for improvement.
4. Act: Apply what you’ve learned to improve the process.

Unique Strength: Its focus on continuous feedback loops and incremental progress makes it ideal for long-term projects, especially those requiring frequent iteration.

5. The Cynefin Framework

Overview: The Cynefin Framework helps decision-makers understand the context they’re working in and adapt their approach accordingly. It’s organized into five domains: Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic, and Disorder.

Domains:

• Simple: Clear cause and effect; use best practices.
• Complicated: Cause and effect are known but require analysis; use expert knowledge.
• Complex: Cause and effect are only clear in hindsight; probe, sense, respond.
• Chaotic: No clear cause and effect; act quickly to stabilize the situation.
• Disorder: The state when it’s unclear which domain you’re in.

Unique Strength: Cynefin’s strength lies in helping leaders choose the right decision-making approach based on the situation’s complexity, making it especially valuable for navigating uncertain or fast-evolving contexts.

6. Six Thinking Hats (Edward de Bono)

Overview: This model encourages approaching decisions from six distinct perspectives, symbolized by colored hats. It’s particularly useful for team-based brainstorming, fostering diverse perspectives and balanced consideration.

Hats:

• White Hat: Focus on data and facts.
• Red Hat: Consider emotions and intuition.
• Black Hat: Use caution, and focus on potential downsides.
• Yellow Hat: Highlight optimism and potential benefits.
• Green Hat: Encourage creativity and new ideas.
• Blue Hat: Oversee the process and ensure clarity.

Unique Strength: This model is excellent for team decision-making, ensuring a balanced view of the problem by systematically exploring multiple angles.

Selecting the Right Model for Your Situation

While the Thriving Founders Process centers on self-awareness, collaboration, and adaptability, these six models offer supplementary strategies for specific decision-making scenarios. For instance, you might start with Vroom-Yetton to determine the ideal level of team involvement, then apply OODA for agility or Six Thinking Hats for diverse perspectives.

In complex business landscapes, combining elements of the Thriving Founders Process with these proven models can yield a more adaptable and resilient approach to decision-making.

We had a good time developing the Thriving Founders Decision Making Model, I hope you find it useful!

Michael Costuros & friends

Supercharging startup founders and their team?since 2010...

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www.thrivingfounders.com

Keywords: Decision-Making Process, Startup Leadership, Founder Decision-Making, Collaborative Decision-Making, Emotional Clarity in Leadership, Stakeholder Engagement Leadership Mindset, Self-Awareness for Founders, Strategic Decision-Making