New dawn becomes the new nightmare

In the wake of political change in South Africa and Zimbabwe late last year, initial optimism is slowly fading as the political climate heats up in both countries, writes Leon Louw.

Six months in charge of a volatile country is a long time. Ask South African president Cyril Ramaphosa, and Zimbabwean president Emmerson Mnangagwa, who’s fortunes are intertwined and seems to have changed overnight. Not so long ago, they were the talk of the town, the darlings and heroes of investors and their own people. It didn’t matter then that Mnangagwa came to power with the assistance of his loyal generals, or that Ramaphosa slithered through the back door of a seriously divided and fractious ANC, with the backing of ambitious union comrades. But it matters now.

Mnangagwa let loose those same generals, who were carried high on the shoulders of the wriggling masses of Harare in November, eight months later to tear into their worshipers, who kissed their feet before, with teargas and guns.

Ramaphosa’s communist backers are demanding payback after they voted him into the hot seat in December. Unfortunately, his liberal and capitalist ideologies are not well digested by a more and more radical revolutionary left. At the same time, he has to deal with a threatening Zulu monarch on the east coast and a traditionalist named Jacob Zuma who continues beating the drums of defiance. Zuma is a kingpin in KwaZulu-Natal, and he knows it.

But the real threat still lies within Ramaphosa’s own party, the ruling African National Congress (ANC), where corrupt remnants loyal to Zuma have drawn their daggers. At the same time, a new, more liberal, capitalist and young “generational” movement spearheaded by leaders in Gauteng is pulling Ramaphosa to the right, where he probably feels most comfortable, especially if he wants to attract the investor dollars, as he promised after his victory.

But it is the year before elections in South Africa. And the ANC’s long-time nemesis Julius Malema and his EEF fighters are relentless in their efforts to drag Ramaphosa back to his leftist roots. With his oratory prowess, Malema has radicalised South Africans and at times it seems that the pressure cooker is about to boil over.

The majority of South Africans are calling for expropriation of land without compensation, which puts Ramaphosa and the ANC between a rock and a hard place. Next year’s election will be hotly contested, and to keep its voters, Ramaphosa’s party has to take the radical route, which doesn’t always attract the real money Cyril’s “New Dawn” promised to do earlier this year. At times it seems that South Africa has lost the plot. There is still uncertainty about the mining charter, power cuts are back, and protest are becoming increasingly violent. This is of course, fertile ground for the Chinese, who normally thrive in uncertain political climates, and are prepared to assist when desperate times calls for desperate measures; and South Africa took the bait. The Chinese are shrewd and are not as benevolent as people would like to think. Their money has conditions attached, always!

Mnangagwa doesn’t have Ramaphosa’s headaches. He has the army to back him up if it gets hot in the kitchen. It would have been calamitous for Mnangagwa and Zanu-PF to have lost the general election in Zimbabwe. Deals with major investors were signed even before Mugabe was ousted, and even before Mnangagwa knew for sure that the people would vote him into power. In a country where the politics are unstable, and where government is desperate for investment, and people hungry for jobs, shady characters lurk. And that’s Mnangagwa’s conundrum.  

Leon Louw is a specialist in African affairs and mining