New Astralytical Report: Orbital Space Tourism Before Suborbital and Balloon Tourism

If it seems like the space tourism industry is maturing at a snail's pace, it is, and with good reason. When it comes to human spaceflight, companies aren't about to take risks. Especially when their clientele are wealthy individuals with high profiles on early commercial flights.

Counter-intuitively, some of the more technically challenging private spaceflight options are maturing faster: commercial orbital spaceflight is operational, commercial suborbital spaceflight may become operational in the next couple of years, and “near space” high-altitude balloons are at least four years from becoming operational. Highly ambitious human commercial spaceflight options such as commercial space stations and cislunar tourism are likely at least seven years from becoming a reality. Space tourism to the Moon, Mars, and beyond are still the destinations of dreams but are at least a decade or two in the future, perhaps longer.

In Astralytical's newly released space tourism Flybys and Orbit, we examine a few probing questions to get a snapshot of the status of the space tourism and private spaceflight providers and facilitators. By diving deep into the maturation of the most realistic technology and business plans, we can estimate how long future space adventurers must wait for their voyages and who they should expect to do business with.

SpaceX

A space highlight of 2020 was the success of NASA's Commercial Crew Program. A total of six government astronauts launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on two missions by SpaceX. In addition to government astronauts, SpaceX plans to launch private astronaut missions brokered by Axiom Space and Space Adventures starting as early as October 2021.

Don't start the countdown to the first private mission to the ISS quite yet. Taking into account technological maturity, SpaceX's historic developmental and launch manifest delays, the strength and credibility of Axiom, and other factors, we predict that first mission will happen but will be delayed. In fact, our modeling doesn't predict SpaceX flying any non-government private astronauts in 2021. But come 2022, expect a steady flow of private astronauts to the ISS, and for every year after.

Virgin Galactic

Is this the year? Every year for several years now, Virgin Galactic has been predicting commercial suborbital spaceflight operations, even as early as 2007. While Virgin Galactic has flown its own test pilots and one passenger employee, it has yet to fly the hundreds of ticket-holders waiting for their turn to experience a few minutes of microgravity and see the curvature of the Earth. Will 2021 be the year of suborbital space tourism?

Likely not. It has been over 22 months since Virgin Galactic's last successful test flight and its aborted test flight in December gives us pause. Taking into account technological maturity, historic delays, test launch cadence, financial health, schedule credibility, and other factors, we predict less than a 50% chance of Virgin Galactic flying paying passengers this year. But our modeling predicts a high likelihood of commercial operations in the next 4 years.

Blue Origin

If 2021 isn't the year for Virgin Galactic crewed commercial suborbital spaceflight operations, what about Blue Origin? Its New Shepard vehicle has demonstrated a steady flow of successful uncrewed suborbital test flights. Blue Origin makes money flying payloads on each of its flights. And the company is partially funded by its founder Jeff Bezos who, at the time of this writing, is the second richest person in the world. Blue Origin's other spaceflight activities, the Blue Moon lunar lander and the BE-4 rocket engine, also provide the company with funding and technological expertise.

True to its company culture, Blue Origin is in no rush to begin crewed commercial spaceflight operations. The company has yet to begin crewed test flights with its own employees, let along begin selling tickets. Although company leadership had previously stated 2018 could be the year, the schedule remains an open question. Taking into account technological maturity, test flight cadence, financial health, and other factors, we predict a moderately low likelihood Blue Origin will begin crewed commercial operations in the next three years.

Commercial Space Stations

With low-Earth orbit (LEO) currently more accessible than suborbit, we look ahead to the future of space tourism in LEO with private commercial space stations. The ISS is going strong but will not last forever, nor was it designed with space tourism in mind. Proposed commercial space stations, both crewed and uncrewed, are designed for a variety of purposes with space tourism and private spaceflight being just one of them.

The current leader in the future of commercial space stations is Axiom Space, the winner of a contract with NASA to provide one to three commercial modules to attach to the ISS with the ability to detach to become a free-flying station in the future. “In the future” is a nebulous concept without a set timeline as to when the ISS will be retired and what the end-of-life will look like. A bit farther in the future are potential plans for crewed space stations by Blue Origin and NanoRacks which could become a reality. Other companies' space station plans, although some once promising, in our opinion are firmly stuck on the ground.

Near Space High-Altitude Stratospheric Balloons

The concept of floating in gondolas attached to balloons high enough in the sky to see the curvature of the Earth and the darkness of space (without actually being in space) seems like old-fashioned science fiction but could very well become a reality. Five companies around the world are working on crewed high-altitude balloon flights ranging from 25 to 40 km off the ground. Some of these companies have already flown uncrewed test flights. One company, Zephalto, has flown two passengers on a low-altitude prototype.

Although fairly new to the scene, with their experience and seed funding, Space Perspective is in the lead, followed closely by Zephalto. Other players – Space Balloon, Zero 2 Infinity, and EOS-X – show varying levels of potential. Although all five companies have proposed crewed commercial operations by 2024 or earlier, we predict none of the companies are likely to begin in the next three years. Those dreaming of floating closer to the stars will need to wait a while longer.

Discover More

If you are interested in any additional information about these companies and our predictions, including how many private astronauts SpaceX is likely to fly in the next three years, how likely Virgin Galactic is to begin operations in the next four years, how likely Blue Origin is to begin crewed suborbital operations in the next three years, when commercial space stations may become a reality, and how high-altitude balloon tourism companies are progressing compared to each other, check out our Astralytical Flybys or the Astralytical Orbit on Space Tourism.

Originally posted at Astralytical.