New Age Technology, Automation and Jobs

Human evolution hardly carried anything from past except standard emotional responses to evolving situations. Most prominent among these ever greening emotions are anxiety about future and fear of change. The first one distinguished us from other living being and the later allowed us to build survival mechanism.

It would be unwise to think automation is a new to mankind. It is in vogue ever since man started using non hand held weapons to kill prays such as spears, arrows etc. Invention of wheel came much after that. There were different periods of incrementally and breakthrough invention in human history. Every additional know how, discovery and invention added momentum to the process and pace of automation. The pace of innovation and automation accelerated further as our capacity to tabulate, store and disseminate knowledge increased with help of computing and internet.

If we keep aside our anxiety, automation is not inherently a bad thing. There are many tasks which are dangerous and are too risky for humans to undertake such as underground/undersea/extreme weather mining, researching nature’s fault lines such as volcano etc. It is justified to have fears that automation would take away jobs that are mostly performed by humans. The current threat emitting possible mass usage of Machine learning and artificial intelligence is no different from shifts we faced during adoption of automobiles, electricity and computers.

The litmus test for mass adoption of new technology is cost, which need to be equal to or lower than the existing proposition irrespective of whether it is carried out by humans or machines or old technology. For example, Technology for solar power was invented in 1883 but it could gain commercial acceptance in the last one decade only after cost of solar power almost matched conventional electricity generation cost. The first robotic arm used in automobile manufacturing in year 1962 but it is yet to replace 100% of humans from assembly line. Similarly, if we look at conventional craft based skill such as shoe making, jewelry making or textile manufacturing, where machines have replaced humans to a great extend; humans still command premium for their work. Bottom line is economics will keep automation at bay as long as humans deliver the work at lower cost.     

There is lot of talk about machine learning, Artificial intelligence and how it is going to take away lot of jobs. Strangely, there is very little discussion happening about world’s aging population and population de-growth in most of advanced economics. Entire Europe is aging and has started a strong trend of population de-growth, China is aging, Japan’s population is rapidly aging and de growing. It is expected that post 2040 Indian population would start aging. Roughly half of worlds population is either aging or is at the risk of de growing. Countries are taking steps to address this problem by allowing immigration and there by risking tampering with their social fabric. There is a sure possibility that we would run short of working hand and hot bodies; hence automation shall be seen as a boon rather than a matter of concern. Which also means automation would be adopted in economies impacted by above problem first. Adoption of automation in these economies would not only maintain worldwide supply chain of good and services but also support economic growth in these countries. In absence of economic growth these economies face the grim prospect of forgoing their wealth and inability to maintain current level of standard of leaving for their citizens.

It would be unfair and a lie if we conclude new age technology would not impact prospects of human employment. It would have moderate to high impact based on which part of the world one belong to and what kind of skill one possesses. However, we can safely assume that these new age technology would replace humans in anything which can be segmented as “General’ skills irrespective of the field of specialization, be it medicine, engineering, accounting etc. We can also be very sure that physical involvement of humans in war would be over. Border patrolling, surveillance and combat roles would not be done by humans.     

We can conclude with a self-assurance that the most successful mammal on this planet is smart enough to adapt and would find a new way to flourish. Humans have done in the past and would continue to do it in all the time to come. Let’s be not swayed by our emotions of fear and anxiety instead say Hello to new technology.