New 96.3 FM radio licence for Paisley/Glasgow

I've always had a real interest in this licence as it was the first professional radio station I set foot in, and eventually broadcast on, my first part-time job and my first full time job.

Growing up in Renfrewshire, my aspirations to work in professional broadcasting benefitted enormously from having a full time local radio station just a short bus trip away from my home.

I was disappointed when it moved outside its coverage area to Glasgow and looked on in dismay as one format and owner after another failed until it eventually closed and the licence was handed back. I've little room for sentiment but I've always hoped that this licence could succeed and at times quite fancied running it.
Now, it's time for some hard business decisions as OFCOM is once again advertising for a licence using the 96.3 FM frequency. 2 options are on the table - one serving Paisley, and another focussing on a wider Glasgow area.

So what will happen and who will win? It seems like everyone is having their say.

Here are a few things to bear in mind.

1) OFCOM puts huge emphasis on the financial viability of the winning bid. This licence has been passed around various owners and burned up formats at an alarming rate before being eventually handed back. If local owners, IRG, TWG, UTV, GMG, and Global (each group larger and better resourced than the one previous) couldn't make a decent return from this station then what chance has anyone else got? There's a risk here that several well meaning but naive community groups put together competing bids with large holes in each of them and do nothing but bolster OFCOM's coffers. The finances are critical. Get them straight, team up with rivals, or a larger organisation or stay out.

2) There's no appetite for a local Paisley or Renfrewshire service. We know this from the response to GMG's decision to move the 96.3 licence out of its original coverage area. There was very little opposition to this and the move went ahead. Nothing has changed in the intervening years. If anything there's even less demand for a local service. No-one cares. And even if they did, you'd then have the issue of whether there's a business infrastructure to support it through advertising.

3) FORMATS. The run away success in terms of radio formats in the West of Scotland over the last 5 years is Smooth 105.2 FM. We all have our favourite groups and there's a multitude of ways of juggling the figures but in the cold light of day, if you look at where the growth is coming from, in local radio, in this area, Smooth rules. OFCOM is big on competition and widening listener choice so whoever wins this, in my opinion, needs to find another as yet untapped source of growth in the market with a very different format. We also know from the history of the licence that rock, indie, 'classic hits', 'classic hits and today's best music', and classic hits with community programming wasn't a huge success either. And local talk failed in Edinburgh so likely wouldn't work here.

So that's my overview of what, in my opinion, won't work. What will? Let's look at the culture of the times we're living in. Think about what we're clicking and sharing on social media. What we respond to. The content we love. Let's think about the number of people running 10Ks regularly in the West of Scotland. Getting involved in campaigns via change.org. Think about the Scottish independence movement (OFCOM won't allow politically motivated licence applications or radio formats) but consider the content around it. The desire to give opportunities to Scottish, or local performers and artists. Think about the many big brand stations claiming to serve 'women in their 30s' - do any of them really? I remember a senior industry figure telling an audience last year that given the choice, she'd launch a 'lifestyle oriented station for women' - might that work?

Look at Jack FM. Look at America. Mix 105.1, WVYB, She 100.3 - might a Hot AC or AOR format work if given a larger coverage area and free from a commitment to local news and or speech? Maybe it wasn't the music formats of the past that were flawed but rather the set up.

Look at the existing community stations and the various niches they serve. Celtic Music Radio, Pulse 98.4 of Barrhead. They've been going a while, seem highly regarded with a clear idea of what they're all about and seem to have a financial model that keeps them going. Could they simply be extended into a wider area?

Look at the run away success of George Bowie's GBX on Clyde 1 every Saturday night. Might that work 24/7? A joint venture between the biggest local radio group in this area and its biggest star?

And look at the big owners, their existing brands and ask where are the gaps? A local version of Bauer's Kiss? Global getting what they wanted all along with another FM outlet for Chris Moyles and Radio X? The owner of Original in Aberdeen, or even an international player like NRJ, iHeartRadio, or another media owner such as STV?

Or what about the extremely well resourced, nicely positioned and up until now fairly quiet Communicorp with a new brand of their own?

Whoever it is will most probably have their plans in place already. OFCOM's application deadline is May 26 and with a fee of ï¿¡10,000 just to put in an application to serve Paisley and ï¿¡25,000 to be considered for Glasgow many interested parties simply won't be able to get that together in time let alone a management team, transmitter site, format etc etc. Either that or they'll need to convince a much bigger organisation to work with them and move quickly on all those logistics.

I know what I'd do.

But we'll discuss that another day.