'New to 5 year old' used petrol and diesel cars in the UK shrinking

According to new data shared by Auto Trader UK , the number of new to 5 year old petrol and diesel cars in the UK has peaked. The inevitable reality is that the availability of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars will continue to decline in the years ahead.

Auto Trader claims that the number of sub-five year old cars in the UK by the end of the year will be the lowest since 1995. In 2019, there were 11.4 million new to 5 year old cars on UK roads; this year, that number will drop to just 8.2 million, a staggering 28% decline.

Changes in the new car market are behind the decline: the dramatic fall in new car production following the COVID-19 pandemic and, more recently, the accelerating growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales.

Diesel-fuelled cars have suffered the most notable sales decline; only a few short years ago, they accounted for approaching half of all new cars. Since January 2024 to June, new diesel car registrations accounted for just 6.6% of the market, down 12.1% year on year. Conversely, petrol sales rose 2.7% over the same period.

The significant growth all comes from electric cars; battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which hold the largest EV market share, saw registrations rise 9.2%, plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales were up 31.2% and hybrid (NEV) sales rose 15.2%

The Impact on Used Car Sales

According to Auto Trader, there have been winners and losers amongst manufacturer brands. Compared to the 2019 used car parc, used Fords in the sub-5 category will fall 54%, and Mercedes-Benz will be down 43%. Suzuki, Mazda, Citroen, Skoda, Toyota and Dacia may also suffer. The common denominator is a slow transition to EVs. Unsurprisingly, the winners are led by early-mover EV brands, including MG and Kia, which will be joined by EV brands, such as Tesla and Polestar.

The other potential impact will be on used car values and the evolution of supply and demand. With fewer new car sales than BEVs, HEVs, or PHEVs, used diesel cars, whose values could increase in the short term due to the shortage of used supply, while EV values could moderate as supply improves.

Much of the used value landscape will depend on the pace with which consumers switch to an EV. As EV availability and affordability improve, with their typically lower running costs alongside declining range concerns and, the decision to go electric may appear like a more rational approach for many people. The timing of ‘early majority’ status will have a crucial impact on used values regardless of fuel type.

No matter what dealers’ views on EVs might be, EVs will continue to feature ever more prominently in forecourts because tomorrow’s used stock is a reflection of today’s new car market, and EVs hold 38.4% of that, and it is growing.