#NEVERAGAIN #NeverAgainMSD Why The System Failed Parkland

As a father, as a grandfather, and as a behavior intervention expert, there is nothing more important to me than taking proactive measures to prevent violence. We need to know that what happened at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School will never be repeated. Principals, counselors, and teachers have the opportunity to set the standard for excellence in safety, without waiting for the laws to catch up.

From the moment of commitment (when a shooter decides to pull the trigger) to the moment when the first round is discharged is only 2 seconds. No SRO Officer can be on the scene within those horrific 2 seconds. The system in place in Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School failed to get out in front of that moment of commitment, but there’s still hope for other schools across the country.

What we can learn from this event is that mental health assessments are notoriously inaccurate. The Report to the President on Issues Raised by the Virginia Tech Tragedy, June 13, 2007 states, “Most people who are violent do not have a mental illness, and most people who have mental illness are not violent.” In fact, they determined those with mental illness tend to be the victims of violence.

Two notable cases prove how mental health assessments have failed to protect us:

The shooter at Virginia Tech, Seung-Hui Cho, was mental health assessed on three different occasions and in each occasion was determined to be “depressed and anxious, but not at risk of hurting himself or others.” The same occurred with Nikolas Cruz, the shooter at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School.

Jared Lee Loughner was charged with 19 counts of murder and attempted murder and shot Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords near Tucson, Arizona on January 8, 2011. Loughner clearly had a thought disorder and was probably schizophrenic. However, of all schizophrenics, only 0.002% have murdered another person.

We can’t assign blame to all those with mental illness in order to protect us from just 0.002%.  The problem lies in the difference between “probabilities” and “predictabilities”. The use of Probabilities states that within a certain group of individuals, there is a higher probability of a shooter. Relying on this probability, however, does not tell us who the next shooter is.

Can we use Probabilities to pick apart Nikolas Cruz and determine what exactly caused him to commit his crime? For example, Cruz:

• ·      Had recently lost his mother
• ·      Was expelled from school
• ·      May have a mental disorder

How many people go through one or more of these experiences and choose to murder others? Less than one percent?

There is, however, a path that’s proven. The US Secret Service and FBI agree, “predictability” can reliably identify a future shooter by identifying someone on the path to violence. This process is not absolute, but it is reliable.

The most thorough study ever conducted on violence in schools was by the US Secret Service, Department of Education and the National Institute of Justice. It was called the “Safe School Initiative Study” and found that the only reliable way to identify a future shooter was to identify someone “on the path to violence.” Backing this, in December of 2013, Andre Simmons, the Chief of the FBI’s Behavioral Threat Assessment Center/Behavioral Analysis Unit stated that the FBI’s ability to prevent violence relies on “identifying a person who is on a pathway to violence.”

It’s time for a proven, proactive preventative measure. Body language, behavior, and communication offer all of the signs you need to pick out the next potential shooter. A system like the Critical Aggression Prevention System (CAPS) creates a common language and thorough process for de-escalating a potential threat and reaching someone trained to handle this threat. When we identify what comes before bullying, harassment, abuse and violence, we create the opportunity to prevent such incidents. Our Comprehensive CAPS video explains how and why a system that uses predictabilities works: https://www.aggressionmanagement.com/critical-aggression-prevention-system-comprehensive-video.html