Never Guess...If you aren't sure, find out. This let's you make a promise, and keep it, and that helps build trusted relationships

Never Guess...

Every once and a while, I publish the following piece about guessing. I learned about guessing Plebe Year at the Naval Academy (1968). People guess everyday, and often don't even realize that their comments are actually guesses, and the harm guesses can generate.

Guessing is unproductive and can be counter-productive. If you are not sure, make sure you are very up front about not being sure. When you are asked a question, people will depend upon the answer you give for other matters they are working on. Guesses often have unintended negative consequences.

If you are not willing to commit something you hold dear, then you are not sure (and you are guessing).

In the summer of 1968 as a Fourth Class Midshipman (plebe) at the United States Naval Academy at Annapolis, one of the important lessons my Classmates and I were taught was to never guess (more like NEVER GUESS!!!). It was impressed upon us that as leaders in the future, people's lives could depend upon information provided by us, and by our answers to questions.

"Are they shooting live ammo?"

"Does the aircraft have enough fuel to fly the mission?"

As plebes we were only allowed five "basic responses" (other than the right answer) when asked a question by an upperclassman. They were:

Yes sir

No sir

Aye Aye sir (I understand and will obey)

I'll find out sir

No excuse sir (as in..why don't you know? "No excuse sir!)

If you were not 100% sure, then you were guessing and "I think" was not an allowed response...it was a guess. Guessing was absolutely forbidden.

"I believe" was another improper response (as in "I believe the correct answer is...") and beginning the answer to a question with the words "I believe" would result in your standing on your chair in the mess hall in front of 4000 young men and singing the song "I Believe."

I believe for every drop of rain that falls

A flower grows.

I believe that somewhere in the darkest night

A candle glows.

I believe for everyone who goes astray

Someone will come to show the way.

I believe,

Oh, I believe)

...yes, I had to sing it a few times before the concept of “never guessing” sunk it. Right or wrong, politically correct or not, in that era, we were told that we believed in our country, in the navy, in ourselves and if we chose, in our god. Nothing else.

To make sure we were inculcated with this "value" and to make it a habit never to guess, on many occasions, after a question was asked and responded to, the upper classman asking the question might ask the following and often feared follow up question:

"Bet your ass?"

If you weren't willing to "bet your ass," then obviously you weren't sure and if you were not sure and answered anyway, you were guessing. Guessing was a sin.

If you didn't know something, the proper response was "I'll find out sir." Whenever an upperclassman asked you if you were willing to "bet your ass," it made you think about your response...if you were sure, you would reply affirmatively, "yes sir," If not it was simple, "I'll find out sir."

OK...I know you are wondering, what happened if you "bet your ass" and lost?

Simple...You bent over, grabbed you ankles and waited for the upperclassman to take the biggest book he could find (usually your book of Navy Fight Songs)...

...and with a running start down the corridor, swat you smack dab in the fleshy area. It didn't take many times witnessing (or experiencing) this to understand the importance of being sure of yourself and your answers and the significance of "betting your ass."

Saul